Riverbrian

I've never seen Royce Lewis interact with his manager or front office. I don't know what he will do or won't do or how he responds to requests from his manager, coaches or front office. I'm unaware of any lines drawn in the sand. Not every ounce of molehill sized unhappiness needs to be a mountain. Expressing publicly that he doesn't want to play 2B. A. Doesn't mean that he won't play 2B if the Manager tells him to go out there B. It doesn't mean that he wouldn't give 100% if the manager tells him to go play 2B. C. It doesn't mean that the mere suggestion of playing 2B made him call his agent and demand a trade. D. It doesn't mean that the manager or front office backed off the idea because of Royce. I don't know what it means other than he expressed that he wasn't comfortable playing 2B when asked. We all ask for honesty instead of PR scripts. He was honest. I'm going to try and not twist his words. We were all pretty sure that Buxton was gone a few years ago over service time. Buxton even said something publicly about his displeasure. Bottom Line: If the Manager needs him to play 2B... He plays 2B. He is allowed to wish he was playing 3B but he plays 2B because the manager thinks it gives the team a better lineup. All I know is this: Royce Lewis is under team control for 3 more seasons. He won't be eligible for free agency until 2029. If you want to trade Royce Lewis... His value has been lowered significantly due to his performance. YOU DON"T TRADE HIM NOW!!! If he is truly concerned about how much money he makes. How big is his Arbtration raise and eventually how much he makes in 2029 as a free agent. It would be in his best interest to start hitting the ball, stay healthy, don't leave any type of impression publicly with the front offices of the other teams that he is uncoachable, unwilling or difficult in any way. I would also advise for his consideration. If he enters free agency with the skills to play 3B and 2B. He will have more teams interested in him because all the teams who need a 3B will be calling and all the teams who need 2B will be calling. This increases the number of teams interested with holes to fill. More teams interested... the more teams bidding... the higher the contract goes. Unless he snaps out of this hitting funk. It's actually kind of silly to be thinking about 2029.

I'm not missing it. I was just working with the numbers that you provided. Anything can be added to the conversation. I added the percentages of AB's because I wish people would stop fixating on the left vs left advantage and strongly consider the left vs right advantage since the 3 out of 4 pitchers are right handed. Utilization/Health can certainly be added for everyone's consideration and you have now introduced that. So it isn't 3 out of 4 pitchers that take the mound, because Wallner's OPS or any numbers are 0 for 48% of the games compared to 9% for Rooker. Wallner missed a few games this year with injuries in2025. Rooker did not. Wallner missed 37 games with a hamstring, 10 at the end of the year with back spasms and 3 games maternity for a total of 50. Rooker played in 162 games. Wallner played in 104 out of 112 games he was available to play. Manager decision. Myself personally. I'm not going to call Wallner injury prone because of one season and I won't project future injuries for either Wallner or Rooker going forward. In 2024 and 2023... Wallner spent a chunk of time in the minors but to my knowledge was basically healthy. That is a front office decision. Wallner doesn't control his utilization much like Rooker didn't control his utilization when he was with the Twins. Rooker was 25, 26 and 27 years old over his first three years. Wallner was 24, 25 and 26 years old during his first three years. Rooker had 270 AB's his first three years of bouncing back and forth with the Twins for two years along with that Padres/Royals season. 71 games over 486 games possible. 14% of games. Wallner played 34% of games over his first three years of bouncing back and forth with the Twins. As bad as some feel Wallner was this year. If we cherry pick home runs. I know there are other stats to consider so I admit to cherry picking. Just using home runs in regards to utilization. Rooker hit 30 dingers over the 699 AB's last year. Wallner hit 22 over 392 AB's. If Wallner gets 699 AB's like Rooker did. He would have hit 39.22 Home Runs. Wallner wasn't healthy enough this year to reach 699. How will Wallner's health be in 2026... I don't know. I also don't know about Rooker's 2026 health. If you want to say (and I would as well) when Wallner has been put in position to succeed (or been healthy)he is basically the same hitter as Rooker I would agree It's not exactly what I'm trying to say but close enough. ... but I'm trying my best to ignore the "put in position to succeed" part. I'm saying that Rooker is good hitter and Wallner's numbers are comparable and I'd rather not fixate on the left vs left because the 3 out of 4 pitchers being right handed matters if you want to play the platoon split the way it should be played. Wallner's .881 vs Right Handed pitching is also a platoon advantage that you can play 3 out of 4 times. It matters. That is a bigger platoon advantage than whatever splits you can produce for 1 out of 4 times. People have been using projections for how good Wallner has been, and projections only work on what might happen going forward, not what happened in the past, the past is the past. So IMO comparing a player that has averaged 148 games the last three years to somebody that averaged 85 is kind of silly. I agree... The past is the past and I could care less about projections since they are TBD. Going forward is what matters and going forward is TBD. What were the projections of Royce Lewis and George Springer going into 2025. Royce was supposed to outslug Springer .470 to .416. Springer won that battle .560 to .388. I cherry picked those two right off the top of my head. I'm not sure what makes 148 games to 85 games comparison silly. . It's all we have to work with due to... health and Front Office/Manager decisions creating the numbers. I won't penalize Wallner for getting hurt, I won't penalize Wallner for the front office keeping him in St. Paul for 3 months while Margot is on the 26 man roster . And everybody should know by know... I will not under any circumstance... penalize Wallner for the front office searching for right handed hitting OF'ers every damn year so Wallner's complete development can be compromised just to avoid a 1 out of 4 time platoon advantage. I mean there is a reason that over that time Rooker has a WAR of 9.9 and Wallner's is 4.9 (which is pretty great for a part time player) I know you know this but for everyone else WAR is a cumulative stat. The more you play... the bigger the number you can accumulate. Health and Utilization (Manager Decision, Internal competition of the teams they play for) isn't something any player should be penalized for. Wallner was close to unplayable in his two great yet limited years against left handed pitchers. You will never convince me of this. If he was unplayable in 2023 and 2024. We certainly made sure that he would remain unplayable by keeping him distanced from left handed pitching. He was predetermined to be unplayable. 46 PA's in 2023 against lefties due to manager decision doesn't say a thing other than the manager played the short side of a platoon advantage and compromised his development in the process. 44 PA's in 2024 due to manager decision doesn't say a thing other than the manager played the short side of a platoon advantage and compromised his development in the process. 97 PA's due to health primarily in 2025 is better but it would have been nice to see a larger sample with better health. Regardless it produced a .791 OPS. But... Yeah... The Past is the past. Let's see what 2026 brings. If the front office is so fixated on the left vs left pitcher advantage that they are willing to compromise every developing left handed hitter in favor of low dollar specialists and therefore limit the number of left handed hitters on your roster. They screwed up since the true advantage is on the other side of the platoon 3 out of 4 times. If the front office is willing to continue to look for right handed hitters despite 8 of them already on the roster... just to address this fixation or overweighting the significance of a short side 1 out of 4 pitchers that the team will face in a given season. They screwed up. If the front office favors right handed hitters because they typically have more neutral splits. They are focusing on the 1 out of 4 and ignoring the 3 out of 4 advantage and they screwed up. More left handed hitters in the lineup allows you to play the platoon split advantage 3 out of 4 times. Yes you take a disadvantage 1 out of 4 times but 3 out of 4 is bigger than 1 out of 4. The Twins screwed up. 3 out 4 compared to 1 out of 4... Is actually a plus in support of Wallner over Rooker. If you want to display their splits for the purpose of comparison. I won't penalize Wallner or any of our developing left handed hitters by what the Twins did to them because they comprehensively over weighted a stat and deployed it. After watching the Twins since Falvey hit town. I'm not going to penalize Wallner because the Oakland Front Office decided to play Rooker every day. Especially if you factor in that Rooker was utilized even less than Wallner was utilized in their first two years with the Twins. Development Years... Development years. The future... sustained competitiveness. Budget space, Development. Development, Development. The Twins screwed up because they chose to Frankenstein a roster together with spare parts instead of developing the players who will be around in 2025 and 2026 and 2027. The bill has come due.

I'm just going to quote your accurate career numbers... and add some stuff. This player is Wallner OPS vs RHP - .881 767 PA's OPS vs LHP - .641 205 PA's 79% of all PA's vs RH - 21% vs LH This player is Rooker OPS vs RHP - .820 1528 PA's OPS vs LHP - .853 581 PA's 72% of all PA's vs RH - 28% vs RH Applying Rooker''s 72/28% to both because I assume it has less platoon attached to it. Wallner ,881 x 72 = 63.342 .641 X 28 = 17.948 Total: 81.29 Rooker .820 x 72 = 59.04 .853 X 28 - 23.884 Total: 82.92 Wallner is already producing better OPS vs 3 out of the 4 pitchers that take the mound and it's not like Rooker out distances Wallner by leaps and bounds when lefties get factored in to drag Wallner down a little.

Here's what I'd like the Twins to do with Wallner. Simplify his swing and stance. It has too many moving parts to it. (Disclaimer): I am not qualified to rework anybody's swing and I'm 89% sure that a batter must be comfortable. If he is actually comfortable looking uncomfortable to us viewers with his current set up... who am I to... you know. OK... after that disclaimer. I'd like to see him try taking the junk out of his swing... at least excess junk. He's got good rotation... he doesn't need to lean back into the umpire before releasing like a tightly coiled spring using every molecule of every fiber of his being. That high pull back leg lift from that open of a stance creates more inconsistency or junk. That powerful of a load and release from someone who is already Godzilla powerful enough is producing that top of the league exit velocity. It's like he's trying to win a long drive contest with a 5-Iron on every single swing. Maybe reduce it to... umm... trying to win a long drive contest with an actual driver. Just lessen it. If you lift and load that much. You really gotta time that thing... I mean... you gotta time that thing like Levon Helm. I see him leaking quite a bit when he mistimes it as he tries to just maintain it. That leak will make it hard to catch up with fastballs up in the zone. Now... when he times it right... my goodness... hide the women and children! If he struggles with timing... Twinsdaily wants to trade him. Simplify it. Lessen it. Just a normal stance and swing. Matt is strong enough that he doesn't need that big of a load. He can calm that thing down.

Absolutely... without question. Could you imagine the Twins with 60 million worth of ballplayers not being utilized? There is no comparable path between these two franchises. Other than we met in the playoffs two years ago.

Around 60 million of the Toronto 258 Million Dollar Payroll hasn't contributed to the Blue Jays success in the post season this year. That's what money does. It allows you to absorb that type of loss. Berrios, Santander, Bichette haven't been utilized. From those contributing to their advancement. Vlad, Springer and Gimenez are about 67 million for those 3 spots. Varsho is 8.2M IKF is 7.5M, Kirk is 4.6M and that adds up to 20.3M Lukes, Clement and Barger all make the minimum. Starters... they have been rotating 4 starters. Gausman, Beiber and Scherzer cost about 38M combined and Yesavage costs the minimum. The Bullpen... The Jays have Bassitt in the pen basically. He costs 22 Million. The rest of the pen. Hoffman and Yurial cost 7 million each. Lauer is 1.7M. The other 4 bullpen arms make the minimum. I go through this exercise to point out the obvious. The Twins will never be in this ball park.

If other teams have interest in Wallner. The Twins (a team searching for major league talent) should also have interest in Wallner. If other teams don't have an interest in Wallner. That's a different story.

The Devers trade was a disaster for the Twins. Minnesota was 36-34 before Devers being traded to the Giants. They went 34-58 after the deal.

I agree with your post... Just that last sentence. I agree... You can't deny the results. History records such things. The Twins have the worst playoff baseball record out of 30 teams since 2000. The Brewers are 25th worst since 2000. The Royals actually have the best playoff winning percentage since 2000. They just don't get there very often. The reason for those results? That's a little harder to pin down. It's really hard when you consider that not a single player on 2003 Twins roster was on the 2020 Twins Roster. We just know that it's part of a long streak involving many many different players and coaches and front offices over many years. I agree that superstars win but superstars also have to play like superstars when the need is greatest and they don't always do that. I've seen enough Eddie Rosario, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Marco Scutero, David Freese, Adam Kennedy Playoff MVP awards to believe that it's quite possible that Caleb Durbin could be the superstar for the moment and Yelich might struggle. I agree that Money is a huge factor without a doubt. Those with money to spend tend to be the teams holding that trophy. But... I can't help but wonder... is the money helping them reach the playoffs. Getting them through that 162 game grind. Therefore creating more teams with money in the playoffs. Therefore increasing the odds of money winning in the end. This year 8 teams with money made the playoffs. 4 without Made the Playoffs. The raffle drum is already stacked with money going in. Most years are a similar percentage between the have's and have nots. Again... Can't help but wonder. Not saying definitely... Just wondering out loud.

I agree. Baseball is so many factors and the timing of those factors. George Springer came up with a big home run last night and you could say that it was proof of what a home run could do. But, it also proof of what a bad pitch at the wrong time can do.

I think it's a case of fans not feeling like the team is better. On the field it can be a different story. Surprising how often it's a different story. There are no guarantees in anything. When the Red Sox traded Devers to the Giants. The Giants were 41-30 and the Red Sox were 36-36. After the trade: The Giants were 40-51 and the Red Sox were 56-37.

Take out the last sentence and I agree completely. Milwaukee was not bounced with little trouble... they reached the NLCS. The Dodgers are 9-1. A team rolling 9 out of 10 wins in the playoffs doesn't happen often. 2022 Astros? 2005 White Sox? If you had to choose a team to roll through like that. The Third Seeded Dodgers would be a popular choice but you still have to roll through like that and most don't. Detroit was trouble this year. Limped in but they were trouble once in. Cleveland reached the ALCS last year. Arizona swept the Dodgers in 2023. They were trouble throughout the playoffs. The Rangers spent some money on Seagar and Semien. They wouldn't fit any small market team narrative with the 7th highest payroll but they survived the regular season and qualified for the playoffs on the final weekend by going 2-4 over their last 6. The playoffs began and those struggles were gone. They rode the arms of Eovaldi, Montgomery, LeClerc and Sborz on the mound while Adolis Garcia had the best stretch of baseball in his 30 year old at the time life. Evan Carter showed up for an incredible stretch of baseball that he hasn't seen since. The Rangers haven't seen the playoffs since. The Dodgers are pretty incredible. I've never seen 5 pitchers this dominant over 74 innings in a ten game stretch in the playoffs. Just 18 innings thrown by everybody else. Just Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani and Sasaki and it's about all they need. Yet the Dodgers haven't hit like the Blue Jays have hit. Vlad and Springer are earning their money at the moment. Clement and Barger are underpaid. The Blue Jays may have taken 7 games to get to the final... Doesn't mean the Blue Jays can't win this thing.

It makes perfect sense to separate the drafted player and the IFA. They are clearly separate methods of acquisition. I lump them into point 3 for the sole purpose of separating them from trades and free agency. The overall point of point #3 is that they actually all tie together. The percentages of player acquisition will have to add up to 100% in the end. If you are light in your utilization of the free agent market and if you are light in the utilization of the trade market. Home Grown (Draft and IFA) players will have to make up the difference to get to 100% of your roster composition. Regardless if they have talent or not.

There is no doubt that the Dodgers front office and manager are fans of Kike. Come playoff time. The heroes are not always the superstars.

It would stand to reason. Milwaukee would have an effort advantage erased by the Dodgers all of sudden dialing it up. However, it also stands to reason that it will be equal in the end. Toronto is trying harder... So is Seattle during the playoffs. Toronto isn't trying as hard game 92 of the season. Neither is Seattle. I think the top 10 payroll teams dominate because more of them make the playoffs due to being a top 10 payroll. The odds are usually going to favor the top ten teams because they make up the majority of the playoff teams. I'm just floating the possibility that Milwaukee and Cleveland are more entertaining to watch because of the youth that is still willing to leave their feet o catch a ball in game 92.

These are the two sentences. In the end, FA? Trades? Drafting? Rule 5? Waiver Signing? Whatever the acquisition method... It's about being good in the end.

As I watch the playoffs... I'm struck by the same realization every single year watching the playoffs The effort from the players is significantly more than you get during the regular season. The extra base, the head first slides, actually leaving their feet to make plays. Now this comment includes the fans. The stadium is packed and loud and that certainly adds a significant portion of the excitement level of watching a playoff game compared to game 94 of a 162 game schedule with 15,000 in the stands. The reason I mentioned this: I wonder if younger players with something to prove... I wonder if they would tend to be a little more 100% effort in game 94 compared to the guy with a secure job playing in his 5th, 6th or 7th game 94. When you see players going after it. Baseball tends to be fun to watch.

Hopefully... nobody is going to follow Cody down this narrative path. I'd hate for anyone to come away with the impression that the Brewers don't draft and develop. 1. The International Free Agents were ignored. Chourio, Quero and Uribe are pretty significant IFA's. Only a mention of Turang in the article because he was a 1st round pick. This tends to minimize Misirowski, Henderson and Frelick who were not first rounders. It doesn't matter... It's still development. 2. In order to acquire talent in trades... you have to have talent to trade. Talent that actually interests other teams... enough that they are willing to give up significant talent. Developing high end talent that other teams really really want is very helpful. Burnes was sought after, Williams was sought after. The better the player that is traded, the better the return. It's still development. 3. This is an important point. There are 3 primary methods used to staff rosters. Free Agency, Trades and Draft/Develop. If a team uses all 3 avenues equally... it comes to 33% for all 3 acquisition methods. If a smaller market team for example just doesn't do the free agency thing... let's say zero percent. Trades and Draft/Develop will have to compensate for not using free agency. Now we have 50% equally divided. If a team tends to make trades like Steer and CES for Mahle compared to a team that trades Burnes for Ortiz and Hall. That 50% is going to shift in either direction accordingly. The Twins have 14 home grown. Well, If you don't trade well and you don't have a budget in regards to free agency. What do you have left to work with? Drafted dudes. Either way... it's all about development... All of it... Development. Development determines what you get in trades and how much space must be filled by free agents. It's all development and the Brewers are kicking the Twins ass.

I've read your posts. You have earned the respect to take you seriously. I took your statement as the "worst offensive outfields in the majors" literally. "Anything but replacement players"... I took as predetermination. I'm here to say that I'm not a fan of predetermination due to the frequent errors of players gifted with the benefit of the doubt that fail. I'm here to say that if we need to locate 5 or 6 guys like you said... and I agree that we need to find at least 5 or 6 guys... actually more. Your odds of finding 5 or 6 guys is going to improve if you don't limit your serious auditions to exactly 5 or 6 guys. I'll add that if you are right about Martin and Roden and you might be. I'm not here to defend or tear down either player. If you are right and you got this thing nailed. Just move on now don't waste a roster spot on either player. Because having sub par players on your bench just leads to shaking off the rust and getting into the lineup when the injuries occur. How they will perform has already been predetermined and apparently... it's not going to be good.

I like comparing everything to poker. It's forecast for 59 Degrees today Mid October in Northeast North Dakota. In other words... A pair of aces and I'll discard 3. My wife picked up KFC for supper last night. It was like holding a J 9 7 3 and 2.

You can never get predetermination out of the game of baseball. These guys in front offices have to decide who to place on 40 and 26 man roster because those rosters have limitations and they have to attempt to predetermine and rank the options. All 30 teams still can't get the .650 OPS out of the lineup with all that predetermination. In your 2nd paragraph... You say those are the "exceptions to the rules". Rarities... therefore it happens but not that often is how I took that statement. I have to ask you a question(s). Wouldn't that attitude (I believe it exists) toward late age debuts contribute to that rarity. If Roden and Martin are now too old therefore let's move on... Wouldn't that play a major factor in the rarity that you speak of? Wouldn't that make it X amount times harder for a Nathan Lukes or Ernie Clement to be one of those rarities? If it's X amount times harder to even get consideration... wouldn't that be a factor in the rarity of that rarity? Also for consideration... Players that debut in the early 20's are typically pretty special players. Just logic will tell us that. For a team to rush a Walter Jenkins or Jackson Chourio up to the majors to start at a young age, to start his clock early so they reach free agency at age 26, to leapfrog the Martins and Rodens, wouldn't that player have to be pretty special? I'll contend that a player that special is the real rarity. Not many of them exist. That player is going to get every chance to prove he is what the team predetermined he will be. Therefore making his ultimate failure... a rarity... an exception to the rule which was already a rarity based on the specialness that put him in that situation in the first place. X amount times harder to fail because that player will be allowed to work through low performance and talented enough to be given the opportunity at a young age. Royce Lewis is going to get every opportunity to not fail. Not saying he shouldn't just trying to point out what could logically be considered major contributing factors to the rarity or exceptions to the rules that you speak of. However, after you deal with the superstars like Jenkins and Chourio. You still got 25 other roster spots to staff and I don't think asking for competition between Lukes and whoever else was predetermined for the 26 man roster is a lot to ask for.

Humor is a slippery slope.

Predetermination I'm not a fan of predetermination. If what you are saying is true. They are not "depth for injury or bad play" either. They are just bad play.

The Twins have eclipsed 3 million fans three times. 1988 following the World Series win. And the 2010 and 2011 seasons which were the first two years of Target Field which may have turned those turnstiles. 2010 and 2011 were also the last two years of the brief Bill Smith regime. I mention Bill Smith because Bill spent money in comparison to Ryan. 2010 and 2011 (2012) were also the only years of payroll outlier in Twins History. The Twins ranked 9th and 10th in opening day payroll in 2010 and 2011 respectively. 11th in 2012 before plunging to 21st in 2013. Was that Bill Smith or the opening of Target Field. Otherwise... between 18th and 22nd ranked is what the Twins are and have basically always been until we broke that ceiling in 2021 and payroll rose to 153 million in 2023 until they hit that wall.

You'll have to enter my garage to find out.