Riverbrian

I agree. Betts will be a Dodger when this is all said and done. This trade is really all about the Dodgers and Red Sox. However... I'm not sure why the Dodgers will pay the difference. If there is an issue with the Twins contribution to the thing. The Twins would have to be the team that makes up the difference so balance is restored. If the Dodgers make up the difference... the Twins would likely be out. The Red Sox get Maeda or the Dodgers keep Maeda and provide the prospect equivalent to the Red Sox or they replace the Twins with a different third team to satisfy the Red Sox. The Dodgers are not going to let the Twins stand in the way. This is all about Betts. The Dodgers want him, he's been announced to the fan base. The Red Sox won't want to go through the trade speculation process again. The optimism expressed that this won't sideline the deal is probably referring to the main piece Mookie Betts. The Dodgers and Red Sox probably have a contingency plan worked out and that contingency could have the potential to uninvite the Twins to the party. Purely Guesses from me... of course.

I'm not thinking too much about the Pohlad's. I've long ago come to the conclusion that the Twins are going to spend approximately what their revenue peers are spending, might fluctuate a little higher in the good times but I'm not waiting for the day we bust through the clouds. Once I came to that conclusion... I haven't thought about the Pohlad's much at all. Maeda is an above average starting pitcher at a position where just average is expensive to get. He doesn't blow me out of the water but I'm not putting him along side the pitcher's who do blow me out of the water. However... he can help us win games and the cost per on that contract does blow me out of the water. If Maeda was a free agent this year... I have no idea what he would get as a free agent. I'd imagine that his AAV would be over 10 million. If Maeda didn't sign that 8 year deal 4 years ago... He would be reaching his 2nd year of Arb and I again assume that he'd be making over 10 million in arbitration and more the year after that. I'll let others who are better at these guesses make those guesses on his value. Whatever number they come up with it's going to be considerably more than what we are paying. We get that savings for 4 years. That is incredible value/savings and that value/savings allows the team to spend the money elsewhere, wherever it's needed. Do I think the Pohlad's will pocket the savings of this wonderful contract? I have no idea but I look at the Donaldson signing as an indication that the front office will spend what they can in consideration of a budget that we should all know that they operate under, whatever that budget may be. None of us should expect that the Twins will be tickling the CBT or crossing over. We all know that. However, regardless if the club pockets the savings or if they re-invest those savings... the option to re-invest something (could be significant) is a reality because of this contract, the option is preserved. Even if they don't... having the option is better than the flip side. The flip side is that If you take away the money that could be re-invested, because they have to spend full value just to get a pitcher of Maeda's above average caliber, the money to re-invest is now gone, the option is gone, it's all gone because it has already been invested. This trade was all about value. I'm excited that the front office sees it.

I have no idea but if my mind tries to follow the string... this would be my guess. The Dodgers didn't want to part with prospects and the Red Sox didn't want to add any salary. They were probably at an impasse over this conflict so a third team (Twins) and 4th team (Angels) would be needed to break the impasse. The Twins provide the prospect that satisfies the Red Sox and the Angels take the salary that satisfies the Dodgers. The catalyst behind all of this. The Dodgers really wanted Betts and the Red Sox really wanted to get something for Betts before he leaves as a free agent while getting under the luxury tax this year. The Twins want to add a pitcher for this year and next economically. The Angels... they just want to keep adding payroll cost until they are forced to tear it down.

The difference is easy to explain. They are not the same people flipping back and forth. To my knowledge, the Twinsdaily forum has never had a unified position on any topic.

I hate to break it to the Twinsdaily faithful. We just acquired a major league talent for the next 4 years for 3 million a year plus incentives. A contract like that isn't going to be cheap to acquire and a contract like that will not hamstring future payroll so we can increase the quality of future adds. It is Maeda plus because the contract allows for a plus. I'll let all those inclined slap some arbitrary number on him... Is he a #2 or #3 or #4. Doesn't matter... He is above average and we got him for 4 years on a contract that allows us to improve other spots on the roster. And... almost just as important... We just cut our starting pitching shopping list for next year by 20%. On paper... we only need to find 2 next year.

I wouldn't say "other than emergencies" but yeah... Action's speak louder than words. You can't turn around and hand them jobs out of spring training with a team that is favored for the playoffs after choosing Martin Perez over them last year with a team heading for the playoffs. The thing that needs to be watched now is: How do they handle Bailey or Chacin should they not succeed? Berrios, Odorizzi and Maeda will get rope... So will Pineda when he hits the scene. Hill is a long wait, so he really can't be calculated yet. By the time Hill comes back, we will have information on everybody else. Health, Performance so Hill is basically our July trade acquisition done in advance. There will be injuries, dead arm, common colds to the members of the rotation so the key question is: How do they handle Bailey or Chacin if they don't succeed.

Too late. I've already mailed the absolutely nothing. I admit that I don't know your address so I had to guess. When you consider all the possible addresses in the world... The odds of you getting absolutely nothing is astronomical.

I'm going with San Francisco. I am so confident in that prediction that I am betting absolutely nothing on the game.

If he continues with the plate discipline improvement or dare I suggest... even improves his plate discipline more. And with good health of course. I will take the over. He will club over 50.

Yes I used your words but I didn't attribute you directly in order to not call you out specifically. There are plenty of Cave ho hum whatever postings that will prevent you from sole ownership of the sentiment. I know there are a ton of stats to choose from but I don't need them to make my point. OPS does just fine. Cave hasn't hurt us in the lineup, the drop off from Cave to his peers in the lineup has been almost insignificant and his 400 AB performance thus far is above MLB average. You can get down into the grains of sand of metrics and show me that Rosario or anyone is better... I won't argue but it doesn't matter to me because the question is how much better and more importantly still... if Cave goes another 400 AB's with the same numbers. How does his value at 600K while still pre-arbation compare to Rosario (for example) at 10 to 15 million and one year before FA? I appreciate your confidence in saying Cave has reached his ceiling after 400 AB's but forgive me if I wonder where that confidence comes from? I'm saying that you better be right because being either correct or wrong is the same result. We will have less money to spend in the future. If we have less money... you'll need to be right. Cost per matters... This is the Minnesota Twins.

I'm out of the prediction game. I'm not even going to guess what Cave, Wade, Larnach, Rooker, Kiriloff, or Lewis is going to be this year or beyond next year. I'm not going to guess what Rosario, Buxton, Kepler will be next or beyond next year. I don't know... none of us know... the front office doesn't know. If the front office knew, Nick Anderson would in our bullpen today. David Ortiz would be entering the HOF as a Twin, Alex Meyer would have never been traded for, ETC, ETC. I do know this: Jake Cave has 481 career big league AB's. He has a career big league 111 OPS+ (not to mention a .964 OPS in Rochester last season when he wasn't with the club. Eddie Rosario has 2451 career big league AB's. He has a career 108 OPS+ Max Kepler has 1970 career big league AB's. He has a career 103 OPS+ Byron Buxton has 1250 career big league AB's. He has a career 87 OPS+ So when I read posts that state: "Cave, do we really care all that much"? You should. Because here is what else I know for sure. Cave makes 600K and he will make 600K next year. Rosario makes 7.75 Million this year and he will make over 10 million next year. In other words... You better be right when you say "Cave, do we really care all that much". Because when an organization dismisses the 400 AB's and 111 OPS+ out of hand. Rosario has to perform significantly better to justify the cost per of 10 Million plus dollars with 1 year before hitting free agency. Because here is what else I know for sure: That 10 million comes directly out of next years budget and it becomes 10 million plus that can't be spent on a starting pitcher which limits the quality of the starting pitcher that you can acquire and we need 3 of them and as it stands we will have around 30 million to spend on 10 players just to field 26 roster spots. Here is something else I know for sure: The Twins will not reach a 200 million dollar payroll, there is a limit too how much they will spend and every time you dismiss a potential 600K talent for a 10 million dollar talent who is just a little better (if he is). You are basically committing the team to signing cheap Jason Bartletts in the future because those 10 millioin dollar guys add up and the budget will be spent and it is all the money you have left to work with. I will just remind you that you started this domino back in January 2020 when you decided that Rosario, Buxton and Kepler are your guys and Cave? Nobody cares that much. Here is what else I know for sure: Dave Dombroski is gone because he ran out of money and he didn't make the playoffs last year and his only solution to fix the problem was too spend even more money because he routinely dismissed Jake Cave type players out of hand or traded away his Larnach type players.

I think you have to change Terrific to OK. The last superstar produced by the organization was Joe Mauer. It's a long list of OK major league players. The Twins had no shot of trading for a Giolito or Kopech or Gleyber Torres for well over a decade because we never produced a talent with enough value to acquire one. The Twins produced talent that was just OK for well over a decade. It was a major development issue.

This only works if Bailey is viewed as insurance in case the prospects struggle. If the kids are viewed as the insurance. The front office has probably made a mistake. The front office has committed to the kids. They are no longer insurance.

There is doubt.

I agree... we can't go into next off-season needing to either sign or trade for 3 starters again. The development of internal options with multi years of control is almost more important than the 38 million dollars committed to 1 year contracts in the rotation this season and the current set-up is going to provide opportunity. Signing and trading has gone how it has gone and we have all been living witnesses to the results. How it has gone has got us to the point of committing to talent development so the talent we need must be developed. Starting now. I just have two concerns and the two concerns will seem to conflict each other but it's the path we must travel regardless. 1. Having options can't be the reason a young pitcher doesn't remain in the rotation when other pitchers return. This is a preemptive/precautionary concern but until I see different... I am concerned. Simply sending someone with options to the minors is the easy way out. They can't do that. If everyone is healthy when Pineda returns... Bailey better be better. The $7M investment in Bailey can't mean he keeps his job with a 5.00 ERA just to protect that investment. The development of a multi-year major league quality pitcher is more important than relentless tolerance of a well paid under performing pitcher. 2. How can they trust Dobnak or Smeltzer or Thorpe or whoever it is after not trusting them last season? Not enough has changed in the off-season to feel differently. Yeah... this is a direct conflict to my concern #1... but I can't help it... How can they? It could be argued that they trusted Dobnak enough to start a playoff game but most of us know that they ran out of choices. Pineda was suspended and Gibson and Perez were pitching awful. They trusted Dobnak enough to give him 28 innings but only gave him those innings after Pineda got suspended and Gibson had an E Coli flareup. They trusted Dobnak in the playoffs enough to hold back our best relievers in Game One under the assumption that they will be needed in Game Two to cover for the short start that Dobnak (in their mind) was sure to make. But now... it's magically fine in 2020. We can trust Dobnak now? I'm OK trusting Dobnak... I'm saying they should have started to trust him back in August until he showed he shouldn't be trusted. But... they didn't trust him then... so now I don't trust this (where did it come from) new found trust to open our season. But yeah... I agree with you. It is ideal... to give them the opportunity over an older back end option. We didn't get Stroman or Ray last deadline... We are going to have to make our own. We did't get Wheeler, Bumgarner or Ryu this off-season... We are going to have to make our own. Bailey can't get in the way like Perez did.

Yep and if you want to increase your allocation of available dollars to acquire these free agents or at least know where to allocate the limited amount of funds you have to work with. You better know what your 600K talent can do.

There are 3 spigots to staffing a roster. Trade Develop Sign as FA Glad to know the FA spigot has additional water pressure.

The Off-Season Grade will be dependent on the performances of the group of youngsters who will make up 40% of the starting rotation until Pineda and Hill throw a pitch.

Good post Doc. We are living in a world where not that long ago in 2018, being a backup meant 20 AB's a month and this was the way it was for decades. This was a cemented reality for followers of the Twins and many can't shake themselves from this thinking. This is why the semantics are still being debated and why I am at war against the term backup. 2019 happened and it was exactly what I asked for and a majority of writers and posters want to go back to the chosen 9 mentality of as recent as 2018 for 2020. We have this article stating that Donaldson will affect Larnach, Kiriloff and Rooker. currently on the front page there is an article "4 options for Twins final bench spot" and "Twins boast a plethora of backup options. You are correct when you use Ryan Lamarre and Logan Morrison as an example but this all started for me back in 2016. The Twins were dying in April on the way to the 1st pick overall while Kepler and Polanco were called up just to be benched watching the chosen 9 kill the team. This is why I respond when I read articles about Donaldson affecting Rooker, Kiriloff and Larnach. It's like 2019 didn't happen. Each roster spot is an opportunity to grow a player for future decisions and future trade value... growing 9 instead of 13 is a waste. Could the Twins bring back Marwin? Sure but it's going to take a big chunk out of the available funds. If he doesn't come back it would be helpful if we can give Kiriloff that roster spot at 600K and know that Kiriloff is looking like Yordan Alverez out there when we make that decision. We could use Arraez in the Marwin role instead of declaring Arraez the everyday 2B for the next 6 years but to make these decisions it takes information... or playing time if you will. I understand that posters want Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Cruz, Sano and Donaldson to play everyday and for Cave to only have 20 AB's a month but you have killed Cave doing that. Cave could be an answer to next year when we are trying figure out how to allocate funds or an increased value trade chip. If Cave played like Morrison... let him go. However he didn't. So the solution is to kill him ourselves? Because no one can tolerate playing .800 OPS when you have a guy with .820 OPS? I read the articles and the comments, the starting 9 has been declared like 2019 didn't happen. I'm saying that if we go back to the 2018 model. Our window will be short and we will be plugging self created holes with Zach Cozart types in the future.

Then you and I are really not that far apart in our discussion. You see it. We can't allow Donaldson to affect the rookies. This is how Cave and Adrianza also tie into the whole debate. If Adrianza can show value, he can become a cheaper option to help free up money for that 15 Million Dollar Pitcher that I agree we need. I've got posters challenging me on my comment with a "no doubt Rosario" is better. That was never point... the point was... Can Cave play? How much better is Rosario than Cave, if he is better? Because Cave could become a cheaper option that can free up money for that 15 million dollar pitcher. We won't know if Adrianza, Cave, Larnach, Kiriloff, Rooker, can play unless We play them. 20 AB's a month on getaway days won't give us enough information to make decision for the playoffs next year and it won't give us enough enough information on where to allocate our limited resources next year. That's why I say... If Adrianza isn't going to play because he has been pre-designated as not good enough to play. Move on because we got to find someone else who is good enough to play. Each roster spot is precious and all we have to is find the time and our flexibility allows us to find the time in multiple locations.

I'll go with those numbers. The extra 10 million still gets spread thin with the volume needed.

I'm not worried about jamming them into the lineup in 2020. Cruz and Marwin are on the roster along with everyone else. If Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, Lewis or Blankenhorn all struggle we will be OK but you gotta see what they can do and see WHO can do it. Same thing as Dobnak\Perez last year. I'm not fine jamming untested players into the playoffs and this is our injury insurance. I'd like to know who we have to count on when Cruz and Sano are down with injuries and Rosario is hitting .200 for August and September. GAME ONE of the playoffs. Can Kiriloff contribute or does Marwin play 1B with Cave at DH while we pray Rosario pulls out of the funk. And then yes... I am worried about jamming them onto the roster for opening day 2021 untested like we are doing with Dobnak and Smeltzer this year and like we did with Hicks and Buxton. AFTER the off-season and after the roster is set with the shopping aisle closed and no information on if they can handle it or WHO can handle it. If they all show they can't handle it in 2020. We know that an alternative needs to be found for opening day 2021 to replace Cruz and Marwin and the little dollar's we have available can be allocated correctly instead of guessing. This is why Adrianza ties into this discussion. If Adrianza can repeat his performance, the team can identify if he fits into 2021 plans and maybe we only need two not three position players in addition to the 3 starters and bullpen arms. The logic is easy. Before you launch a rocket with lives on the line. It's a good idea to test it first.

The Goal is win this year And the goal is to win beyond this year And the goal is to manage payroll so we can afford key acquisitions such as Donaldson in the future to supplement the young prospects that they have already FULLY Committed to. The Front Office has already let us know by action that they have FULLY committed to the prospects. It doesn't matter if you or I agree or disagree with this, It's happening... it's a done deal so we might as well get used to the idea. You and I both know that they have committed to the prospects because they didn't acquire anyone at the trade deadline last July nor have they traded any prospects for starting pitching this off-season (As of yet). The clues are before us: Highly probable playoff team(Division Winner), Record breaking offense and a clear undeniable need for a starting pitcher at the deadline. You know they made phone calls and once they determined that the prospect price is too high for a starting pitcher under this context... they are telling all of us that they are committed to the prospects. The prospects were more important than a much needed starting pitcher upgrade for the 2019 playoffs. We can stretch this out into this off-season. 4 starting pitchers needed... none traded for with prospects (as of yet). All 4 starting pitchers signing FA contracts with a still obvious need for starting pitchers to support a returning record breaking offense and an expected playoff team. They are once again telling us... that they are committed to the prospects. It's a done deal... there is no sense fighting against it. If they are committed to them... and they are. Your quote "Who cares if it costs any of these 3 prospects PAs" is counter-productive. We already have equity invested into these prospects when we didn't trade any of them for starting pitching at the trade deadline. We will have even more equity invested in them when they don't move them for starting pitching this off-season. After 2020: The Twins will need to replace, Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Adrianza along with Odorizzi, Bailey, Hill, Clippard and May. The Money saved on these expiring contracts will get a big chunk taken out by raises going out to Sano, Pineda, Rosario, Rogers, Berrios, Buxton and Duffey. Leaving us with 7 new roster additions to identify in the off-season (3 starting pitchers, a couple of bullpen arms, a really big bat in Cruz and an interesting Marwin Gonzalez type player). The Twins might have 20 million ('m guessing) to work with in the off-season. I'm going to assume right now that we will not land 7 free agents with 20 million to work with unless we bring on a boat load of questionable 3 million dollar type FA additions and I don't recommend that. If the front office even wants to consider adding a high dollar FA next off-season(Not Saying they will). This means that the front office is COUNTING ON 600K talent coming up from the minors to fill some of those 7 spots for next season. If they are counting on the prospects... I think they are as I illustrate above... I'd rather they don't pull another Hicks, Buxton jam into CF before they are ready with no safety net for a debut on opening day 2021. Of all the prospects, the 3 mentioned in this article along with Royce Lewis are the highest rated and perhaps closest to major league ready. And of course after 2021 and into 2022: More free agents and more pay raises. You and I both know that payroll may go up but will not go up significantly. You and I both know that FA's are not guaranteed to sign on the dotted line if they have horses in Arizona even if they did. The prospects are coming and it better be this year. Start prepping now.

The getaway day lineup is perhaps the dumbest idea in the history of roster management.

Roster spots are for 3 things 1. Helping the team win now 2. Increasing in Value 3. Fixing someone's flaws to eventually help the team win now or increase in value. (Shouldn't exceed a month's time) If a player doesn't fit into any of these 3 things. They are a waste of precious 26 man roster space. This is how you keep the factory at full production. If Adrianza is "capable of filling in at multiple infield positions, including SS". We should allow him to fill in at multiple positions including SS. I'll let you designate the backup tag on him, if it helps.