Riverbrian

They think they will win in 2026. Playoffs and on to the Superbowl.

I bolded the part that I really really agree with it. I believe that you increase those odds through numbers and that's why I want the system flooded right now instead of just betting on Lewis and Lee to be who we they think they should be. The one thing that has always stuck in my head and can't get out of my head. How does opportunity influence the fangraph numbers? How does pre-determination influence those numbers. The 65 Prospect gets chance after chance to be one of the 33%. The Twins are going to give Lewis chance after chance and they will suffer his failures. The 55 prospect who goes through a Royce Lewis type stretch will not get chance after chance. He is simply pushed aside for Ty France. There is no guarantees period but I'd rather the Twins increase their odds by just simply staying away from Ty France type hole fillers.

The scary part for me right now is this: I don't believe the Twins will do either of these things.

Who knows... It's a theory. I won't argue heavy. I have no idea what will happen with the CBA. It's typical posturing right now. The players union and the owners clearly are pulling in different directions. We will see what they settle on so I'm not factoring any of that in. That aside... The Twins would have to buy out two years right now. Projections are for 6 million... I think that's low in consideration of the season he just had. However... if you go with 6 for Arb 2 and double his final year of arbitration. That's 18 million that Ryan will earn with health. If he stays healthy for the next two years and just maintains his current performance level. At age 31.6 he could get a Framber Valdez type deal. 4 or 5 years at 30 million per. Let's say 5 years. 150 million plus the 18 million for 168 total taking him up to age 36.6. That's when the one year deals come in based on his performance over the this contract. If the Twins extend him. Rosterman who is an extremely sharp poster suggests 4-5 years between 120 to 140 million. Joe would probably want the shorter extension so let's say 4 years at 120 for 30 AAV. He makes 120 million and a free agent again at age 33. Where if he maintains his pitching performance... He could certainly sign another multi year deal. Joe makes more money signing that extension. If he wants to beat a path out of town as quickly as he can. He probably understands the risk. I think the bigger question is... Would the Twins take the risk and offer the extension? If they are keeping him this year. They probably should because they are just eating his trade value as his years of control shrink.

Ladies and Gentlemen. The Twins are going for it!

Another point on Chaim Bloom. Red Sox fans hate him in Boston but Breslow is now enjoying the fruits of his labor. Bloom was hired to do what needed to be done in Boston at the time and the fans didn't have the patience for it. Even the Red Sox can run out of money. If money isn't an object for the Red Sox. Mookie Betts would still be banging balls over the green monster. Dombroski was let go because they ran out of money and they had a bad year at high payroll and the only way to fix it was spending even more money. So Bloom is brought in to fix it and he did. I'll bet on him with the Cardinals as well.

Exactly! In another thread... there is someone challenging my shocking opinion that the Twins have been acting more like the Phillies then the Brewers. Not like the Phillies in terms of aggressiveness because the Phillies can be aggressive financially while the Twins can't be aggressive without the money to be aggressive. Signing Ty France is not aggressive. Still, the Front office took payroll to levels previously unseen for this franchise and it wasn't just Carlos Correa that brought them there. It was also the lack of Pre-arb players. Low Pre-arb player numbers is something that you see with the big boys. Players that are not pre-arb cost additional money that eats into the available budget. The necessary budget sense of what the Twins are should have been obvious to anyone taking a job with the Twins. Development was always going to be the key to survival and we put development aside for temporary patch jobs year after year after year. This off-season approach as laid out by public statements by those in charge is really a head scratcher. If the Twins go for it this season and fail. The waste will be measurable. The delay will be extended. If ownership is pushing this direction... they need to understand that they are driving payroll up because development is the only way to keep the payroll down with a succussful franchise and they need to understand that Josh Bell isn't going to fill the stands. If Falvey is selling this direction to ownership. I'd think it makes his job more at risk if it fails. I'd think the safer thing for his future employment with the club is to sell ownership on the need to switch directions and point out that there might be a year or two of below average win results.

Crazy is a little strong so I'll pull that back. I also admit to having no idea if the contract length and AAV suggested in this thread is in the ball park or not. However... the theory still remains. Joe Ryan would most likely be paid more if he could sign a long term contract right now when compared to what he will be offered in two years when he reaches free agency and barring trade the Twins are the only team that can offer it. The Twins front office incompetence. That comes down to what matters more to Joe Ryan. The Money or the opportunity to win baseball games and that I don't know. It's probably a combination of everything a person has to consider in these types of things. I'm sure Joe and his agent understand the risk of declining an extension and the Twins understand the risk of offering one.

I love your optimism. I'm trying to hold mine but the fear of something unidentified yet systemic is weighing heavy on my optimism. Those rankings are interesting to read every year. The Pre-season Rankings... The Mid Season Rankings all produced by different publications. I know the difference between 2 and 8 is 6 spots and the difference between 8 and 18 is 10 spots but what I don't know is the actual difference between 2 and 8 or the difference between 1 and 30 for that matter and in the end does any of that matter anyway because hindsight kind of tells a different story when it's all said and done. The 2020 Twins Ranked 8th according to Callis, Mayo and Rosenbaum on MLB.com. That lofty ranking was buoyed by a top ten of Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, Jeffers, Cavaco, Javier, Enlow and Thorpe. 4 of 10 remain in the majors. The Orioles were ranked 13th in 2020 5 spots below the Twins. 10 of the top 12 that year are in the majors. 11 out of 14 if you stretch to 14th ranked Kyle Stowers. Disclaimer: 14 was specifically chosen by me to stretch and include Kyle Stowers of the Orioles in order to support my point. If I go to top 14 for the Twins to keep the numbers equal. We can add Rooker and Wallner to make it 6 out of 14 in the majors. We can dissect the 6 Twins players out of the top 14. Lewis, Larnach, Duran, Jeffers, Rooker and Wallner. It could be argued that the best two players out of those 6 players were Duran and Rooker and interestingly enough, they are the two players out of the 6 not on the team. The #1 Ranked team in 2020 was the Rays: The top 6 for the Rays that year were: Franco, McKay, Brujan, Edwards, Baz and Honeywell. Baz and Edwards are major league players. OK... maybe Brujan can be included since he is sitting on the Braves current 26 man after he was claimed on waivers last year. That Rays class did have a run of success with prospects ranked 7 and 8 and 9 (McClanahan, Joe Ryan and Josh Lowe) Nothing from 10 to 14. 6 players produced by the top ranked team in 2020. Only McClanahan and Lowe remains for the Rays. Yeah Franco was a sad story but I think we can look back in hindsight and say it wasn't a strong class despite it's #1 ranking that year. Baz has just produced a bunch of prospects who are currently #7, #8, #13 and #22 in the Rays system who could be in the next wave. Edwards produced #16 in the Rays system for the next wave. The Rays have to keep the waves coming. We could go through all teams 1 through 30 and see the actual results. 30 BTW was the BREWERS! The team living off their farm system. The top 30 names are not impressive but year after year the Brewers commit to affordable players with years of control. This long post wasn't necessary because you are a smart poster who probably already understood the reason for my development caution and I didn't really have to list all of this to explain my caution. Despite my caution that I come by honestly from watching highly ranked prospects not perform like we all constantly hope for. Despite that caution... I still say the best way to get through what the Twins are going through is to flood the system with young players and let the success/failure ratio eliminate and identify holes. Some people think that the solution to youth struggle at the majors is to turn down the dial. I think the answer to development is turn up the dial. Bottom Line: The Twins development with position players has not been good and I don't know why. Is Shelton right when he says the jump from AAA to MLB is just the hardest thing ever. It certainly might explain Minnesota and Pittsburgh but it sure doesn't explain Milwaukee and Cleveland. Or is just deep rooted philosophy. They just trust Ty France over what they produce on the farm because they gotta scrape for every inch just to get the occasional W. It sure seems like the Twins have opted to turn down the dial on prospects as a response. as they keep that 4 million to 7 million dollar affordable vet dial up. My faith isn't there and Josh Bell isn't providing me with faith. Not trading Joe Ryan isn't providing me faith. Going for it... isn't providing me faith. 2nd Ranked farm system right now... that's awesome. They still have to develop it and they can't seem to get past AAA.

There is another conversation I'm in that produced the same assumptions as your 2nd paragraph. Logical assumptions to reason. Perhaps the only logical assumptions. Your first paragraph describes it perfectly. The front office has lost aggressiveness in any direction. I know that I tend to sit around the house more when money gets tight.

I don't disagree or agree in regards to the current shape of the organization. I've been reading the reports for quite some time. The minor league system has always been rated fairly strong for quite some time but here we are... talking again about... yeah... this next group though. I've waited for the core to form but it's been nothing but patchwork with the position players. I think the pitching will be fine because they will get opportunity and there are some good young arms that I have watched take the mound. The pitchers have to get exposed, they really can't be hid and they will learn on the job and get better. Position players are easily stashed, hid, stripped for parts and that is what they have been doing. The select few that they have actually flung forward without restrictions haven't become what we need them to become. Even with all of that... I still want the Twins to just throw youth at the problem. Trade Ryan for the biggest baddest prospect hitter they can find. Get another Jenkins type talent to throw at the problem. Someday... Maybe Someday... We can stop with the Ty France's.

I've thought a lot about the why? These two things you mention were certainly plausible explanations that I thought about. A. I don't believe that it will increase ticket sales. They would have a better chance at increasing ticket sales with a real good marketing campaign, more bobblehead nights and Snoop Dogg after the game. B. Here's what I'd like to see. An owner that gives the front office the security to do what NEEDS to be done. Desperation always sets in when third chances are given. If the front office doesn't have the security to do what needs to be done. Just make the change and let someone else start fresh. I'm going to torture this next part but... I'm willing to torture. That desperation reminds me of a painful series of downs that I witnessed at a huge football game this year. My team was first and goal from the 3 yard line. Everybody is thinking... run the ball straight ahead 3 times or 4 times if you have to and get that TD. Instead they threw the ball three times for three incompletions and settled for a what was a missed FG and the air went out of the building. Ended up losing by 5 points in a huge game. On 1st down. I'm sure they thought they had a high chance of success since everyone is thinking run. Incomplete. 2nd Down... I'm thinking that they have to run now because everyone is really thinking that they have to run now. So they threw the ball again. Incomplete. Now it's third down... Now they have to throw. 3 yards on the ground is never guaranteed. I was trying to justify in my head what the OC was thinking... give him the benefit of the doubt and that was the best I could come up with. Well... Falvey called a pass play on first down in 2024 and and 2nd down in 2025. Both were incomplete. It's third down now... in 2026. Now they gotta pass. In a nutshell and the reason for that tortured metaphor... I worry that 2024 and 2025 is causing this 2026 approach out of desperation.

I'm certainly skeptical. Even if they are successful they will have to repeat a similar process the following year. It's always fun to watch that cat hanging by a claw pull itself to safety the first time. The 2nd time you have to wonder what the Cat is doing. The 3rd time... you just give up on the cat.

I'll let you discuss the stagnancy. You'll get no argument from me. If you think the budget should be higher... Fine... I don't know where the budget should be. I only know where it's been and it's not the point. The Twins are filling holes with free agents. The Big Boys are filling holes with free agents. It's the same blueprint to success. The Big Boys have money to do this. The Twins don't and it is creating that stagnancy. The Big Boys are not signing Jay Jackson. The Twins are because it's what they can afford. I can't simplify it any more than that. The Phillies and Dodgers started 2025 with 8 Pre-Arb Players on the Roster. The Twins started with 8 pre-arb players on the roster. It pushed payroll up to 150 plus million and then the roof caved in. Milwaukee and Cleveland started with 18 pre-arb players on the roster. They are not signing Jay Jackson either. This is why I'm saying that the Twins are trying to do what the Phillies are doing.

2 years until free agency is a long long time for a pitcher. Joe Ryan would be crazy to turn down that extension. The Twins and Joe Ryan should both be looking at his peak value the same. Twins: Peak Value is the perfect time to trade him Joe Ryan: Peak Value is the perfect time to get your big contract done. Ryan gets a bigger longer contract right now. In two years he is two years older and he gets less.

If it was me. I'd flood the thing with young talent and let the success/failure ratio of that young talent propel you forward and whatever happens in 2026... happens. 2026 might be rough... it might be average... it might be surprising so I'd make no predictions on next year. However... I'd be willing to predict that you will get where you want to go quicker. This scraping 20 million together to fill multiple holes very thinly is... not a good idea and an idea that has been tried every year since they ran out of money when the RSN's collapsed and failed each year. This time they are going for it just like they went for it last year minus Carlos Correa and almost the entire bullpen. If they are not willing to trade Joe Ryan or Lopez and by all reports... they are not willing. There is only one way to see it and that is... they are without a shadow of a doubt... going for it. They are going to reduce Joe Ryan's sky high trade value in an attempt to go for it. If it doesn't work... Joe won't be worth what he was and the return is less. Joe Ryan is a chance to land another Walker Jenkins type talent. If he needs Tommy John next year... it will be the equivalent of losing a Walker Jenkins type talent. The only hope we have is that after Framber and Ranger sign deals and the top of the market free agent starter pile shrinks to the point that the pressure to acquire starting pitching turns to the trade market and inflates Ryan's value enough for them to change their mind. However... If they are going for it. If Ryan is a Twin on opening day. It changes the context surrounding Larnach as he becomes more important than any of us argued about him earlier. Larnach will have the 2026 going for it on his back. Larnach will have the loss of Ryan's trade value on his back. Larnach becomes critical for the deepening of the lineup necessary to GO FOR IT so you don't waste Joe Ryan's trade value failing in your go for it attempt. I have no idea whose idea this is. Pohlad Du Jour or Falvey? Erod and GG will get a chance to prove themselves when the injuries occur. Staying after the call up will depend on them and the other outfielders. Jenkins will probably have to rock St. Paul to force his jumping ahead of Erod and GG. Meanwhile I'm watching the Cardinals cash in and we will see who reaches the playoffs first. I'll bet on the Cardinals. I hope I'm wrong but... Yeah... I'll bet on the Cardinals.

I have no idea but I'm not sure the Red Sox would trade him for a lottery ticket. If I had to guess... If the Red Sox are entertaining trading Casas and they just might be since the Red Sox roster appears to be under serious reconstruction and Contreras has arrived. However... I assume the Red Sox are going to have to complete more of the reconstruction project before moving Casas. Yeah... they signed Contreras but... what will they do with Duran or Abreu or Yoshida? They'd love to shed Yoshida I assume that opens up DH. Do they trade for Marte? A Marte trade may be a huge team context changing deal that will require followup deals to fill the pieces dealt away to Arizona. Maybe Casas is part of trade discussions with the D-Backs for Marte? Do they sign Bregman or Bichette. Casas with the Twins. I'd choose him over Bell but the Twins have chosen Bell.

I really really like Casas as a hitter. I also don't fret the defense reports on him. The thing that makes me pause on Casas is his injury history. And now Josh Bell makes me pause.

It's going to be interesting to watch Chaim Bloom and the Cardinals do what they do while watching what the Twins do what they do. Who knows if either approach works or doesn't work but one thing is for sure. Bloom and the Cardinals are clearly going a direction toward something. The Twins... Well... direction? I will be watching

I don't think any of us should take it literally but if there is any accuracy to the reports that the Twins have about 20 million to spend. 7 is already spent. That will leave around 13 million to acquire a couple of bullpen arms and quite possibly a SS capable infielder. Sean Newcomb just signed for 4 million with the White Sox for a reference point.

Should they? Yes... They should cash in Joe Ryan this off-season. Will They? No... This team is going for it. If they are going for it. They will need the depth because it takes 8 to 10 starters to get through a season.

If your point is that the Pohlads are cheap and therefore not comparable to the Phillies in any form or fashion and you therefore reject all attempts of comparison in any form or fashion. because the Pohlads are cheap. All I can say is that I've come to grips a long time ago that the Twins will never spend like the Phillies or Mets or Yankees. Never... no matter who owns the team. They are going to have to find a different way to compete. The Phillies use free agency to acquire Bryce Harper and play him every day. The Twins use free agency to acquire Ty France and play him every day. Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa don't acquire Harper or France. They load up on players making the minimum. The Twins need to be more like Milwaukee and less like Philadelphia.

I read all of your posts... you are one of the good eggs on this website. There has been a new development since the original off-season what do you do with Larnach discussion. The new development. The Twins are going for it. It's not what I would do but I know I have to adjust to this reality. My prediction is that rookies on the offense side will go to the back of the line and wait for injuries. This re-tool began at the trade deadline and it ended at the trade deadline. Additional young prospects will not be acquired. At least not until the trade deadline.

I don't worry about having too many left handed bats. Being overly left handed is preferred and not a concern in the slightest. We have been overly right handed for many years and that is much more concerning. As far as roster imbalance regardless of what batters box they stand in. Yep... There is currently an imbalance and the Twins will probably have to make some trades... most likely minor trades because they are keeping the guys with major trade value. 21 positions players and 19 pitchers on the current 40 man roster. At minimum you'd like to see that reversed. At the 1B position: Someone will have to go because you have room for two out of the three 1B candidates Bell, Clemens and Julien. Nothing has to be decided yet for the 40 man roster because injuries between now and opening day can and do occur. However, if all three are still with the club and healthy out of spring training... it will force a 26 man decision because the 26 man roster will only have room for two of the three. Assuming Bell is one... you are choosing between Clemens and Julien. If there is any trade interest in Clemens or Julien... you should probably move one. Otherwise... it will be a simple DFA and waivers for someone. If we pick up a SS... that will probably knock Kriedler off the 26 man roster and the 40 man roster to clear space. Fitzgerald can be stashed in AAA. We currently have 4 catchers on the 40 man. Jeffers, Jackson, Pereda and Gasper. One will certainly have to go. On the pitching side: Those 19 pitchers get divided up... 13 starters and 6 relievers. I'd imagine that we will have some starting pitchers to the bullpen conversions to balance out these numbers. This imbalance is why I'm pretty surprised that the Twins have been silent in the reliever free agent market so far. I expect some trades before the off-season concludes. I think they have they to bring in a SS and at least two bullpen arms and what is left in free agency is not going to excite any of us. .