Riverbrian

Can you hang zeros? How many can you hang?

I'm not posting this for a fire bombing of Matt Wallner... I know he has lost some fans on this site. Wallner in this purpose, is an example for a front office assessment discussion. I'm not doing this to blame the front office either. Player assessment has to be difficult. Thought #1 - Matt Wallner was CHOSEN as the opening day RF. He wasn't even originally chosen to platoon. The staff went around the room... talked about it and concluded that Wallner was the opening day RF. Thought #2 - Matt Wallner remained the designated starter for 43 games. The Twins staff determined that there was something there. Thought #3 - Poof... He's gone. Possibly for good if they decide not to retain him. Thought #4 - Any statcast metric considerations, any measurements, any projections would have been part of the discussion for the consideration of thought #1 and thought #2. Is he our RF? They said yes... he is our RF. Thought #5 - Poof... He's gone. How can a front office miss that badly? From the keys to the kingdom to Poof... He's Gone. It wasn't gradual... It was poof... he's gone.

I'd switch the assigned positions around a little. Larnach and Martin on the same roster won't make me happy but it's not all about my happiness.

It's clean... it's simple. Rolling with the pitching with just Minter as the only significant signing. The pitching does have the potential to be good. Adding Arraez... thumps addition from me. I love watching him hit when he was one of us. Don't care about his SLG in his case. He makes things happen. Myself... I still want a king kong bat for this team... Just imagine: Keaschall, Arraez, Buxton, King Kong Bat, Clemens, Jeffers, Lee, Jenkins, Culpepper. The lineup starts getting a little longer. You'll need an infielder with SS capabilities. I wouldn't want to begin the season with no safety net for Culpepper. It's clean... I like it.

For the front office. Step one is pretty black and white without much grey area to consider. A. Go for it B. Sell off assets and acquire more youth. Between 2025 and 2026. Option B was clearly the sensible option and they went with A. This off-season in preparation for 2027. I can see a case for both this season. Therefore I won't argue your approach. I'll just say that if going for it means more Josh Bell and Victor Caratini type signings. Your way is absolutely the way to go. If they are serious this time. Option A has a chance. Whatever way they go... I just want a serious attempt at it.

I've said this a lot but I'll say it again. Jeffers is fantastic. I have nothing but praise for him. I hope he gets all the money he has coming to him. Bottom Line For Me: I want to beat the catcher market not lose to it. I want to take advantage of the catcher market rather than have the catching market take advantage of you. I'd rather the Twins treated the catching position as an asset-factory rather than long term foundational pieces. Rather than over paying for catching - I'd rather the other teams over pay you for catching. Ashbury calls it a stupidity tax. He is right... it's a stupidity tax that we pay time and time again because we have failed to develop catching. Jeffers the lone exception. Hopefully we can get on the correct side of the market with the players coming up through the system.

Never saw Sato play but... if the Twins could find a Murikami type bat. A Murikami type bat is exactly what this team needs. If they are going for it. My expectation that Twins will get this done? About the same expectation... that I'm buying a Maserati this year in 2027.

I'm sure they have... it's why they have coaches on staff. Has Matt? I don't know... I assume he's putting in the work in but who knows. Maybe he isn't and that's why he's a candidate to be kicked off the team despite a high .800 OPS not that long ago. It sure seems that two bad months last year erased two pretty good years in very quick fashion. Keep this in mind. The Twins didn't feel this way about him in March. They liked him enough to leave spring training with Wallner the everyday RF. A team that was declared going for it by the owner. They all looked around the room... someone said Wallner RF... and the people in that room gave a thumbs up. He wasn't even on the list to be platooned. They believed in him... 34 games later... They didn't anymore. That's a sudden fall from grace. That's North and South Pole. That's a front office missing by as large a margin as possible in terms of assessment and having nowhere to turn to to replace him. Other than role players of course. Those players they rostered to do one specific thing well that could never fulfill the expectations of what Wallner was supposed to be. My blueprint is an attempt to eliminate that.

I can't say if you are right or wrong... I can't say I am either. However... there is one thing that I believe to be true. If you sign a free agent... you are already paying more than other teams are comfortable paying for his services. Since we outbid other teams for his services... And the first year only ate 4 million off the 14 million. His 2027 payment raises to 10 from 4 in 2026... while his value based on his performance fell from 6 that maybe someone else would have paid to ? We could be talking about a player with 3 million value getting paid 10. If you have to eat that much to even the trade out. You might as well roll with him just in case he bounces back to what we hoped we got when he offered him that contract. If you can't... you must sleep in the bed you made.

Hang in there. The past is the past. It's all about the future. I'm hoping that Tom was sincere when he says he realizes that last years squad wasn't built for 162. Because he's right. It wasn't.

With Wallner... I don't see the fastball issue. The high heat will get him but the high heat will get a lot of players. Granted... he is going to see more fastballs so the fastball is key but it's those off-speed pitches and the low and away breaking pitches that add to his overall K percentage. What I do see with Wallner is when is timing gets messed up. He gets painfully messed up and he has too many odd moving parts to his swing that all have to work for timing. So it's easy to get messed up. His set up as always bugged me. He looks uncomfortable. It has a high tension coiled spring set up. When the pitch is delivered. His leg lift with his front foot is high like he's trying to the ball a million miles. His body goes back on the load and his leg lifts high to hit the ball 500 feet when major league fences don't require that for someone with his power. He doesn't need that big of a load. Simplify it. Take the odd looking junk out of it. Study the swing of Yordan Alverez. Nice and simple and his timing issues could be greatly reduced. The more things you have to time the more chances to screw up along the way. However... I've coached youth baseball. I am in no way qualified to break down a major league swing.

It's such a precarious time to be doing this stuff. Will the CBA change? Will it stay the same with minor changes? My plan is based on it staying the same with minor changes? If a Cap and Floor is implemented. My roster may not make any sense anymore.

In regards to trades... there is no way I could possibly know what players could be acquired nor could I know how much so all I can do is list the types of players that I would like and hopefully the Twins acquire reasonably facsimiles... if not the real thing. Schmitt could be replaced with Lawlar for example. I'm just looking for young talent and young talent that could be acquired. I know that I have Larnach, Kremer and Ober has trade chips and if we need to add from the minor league system to finish off deals with whoever... then we need to add from the minor league system to get the deals done. However... I recognize my limitations on constructing specific trades that both parties would agree to because I have been nowhere near the rooms where these conversations take place. In regards to Wallner. I view him like I view Lewis right now. Too talented to just hand to another team to fix. Wallner and Lewis didn't earn it so they gotta earn it. I'm making them the safety nets... safety nets who could win a job back. Last year Wallner had a horrible 135 PA's and everyone wants to throw him away. Prior to that his OPS was: ,776 - .894 - .877 and we want to throw him away over two real bad months? This is 40 home run potential. Yeah, he's older now but when his timing is on... he is at another level of exit velocity. Meanwhile we are at 1,000 AB's of sub par with Lewis now but Wallner has to go? I don't use 4th or 5th OF terminology when describing players but give Wallner that last spot and see if he can help us win ball games. When it's his turn to play... I'd imagine DH would be the spot because Buxton, Jenkins and Emma are better defensive options. However... Wallner won't play every day so others can use the DH spot as well for more AB's to what is now a competitive team. I have Keaschall listed in the DH spot because the format of the tool demands one. However... I want Keaschall playing in the OF so he gets better at it. He's young... he's athletic... he will figure out the routes and jumps in time. I don't want to diminish Keaschall's future value by cementing him into the DH position.

67 Million spent on catching: Vazquez, Caratini and if Jeffers likes the QO. Tack on the 14 million we have paid Jeffers over that time and it's 81 million. Have we spent 81 million on any of the other positions during this time frame? Correa at SS is probably it. Buxton would be close by himself.

I'm not. I get the impression that you and I are worried about the very same thing. Jeffers is the marquee purchase and we fill the rest of our positions with 1 year so-so guys. If Jeffers takes the QO... I'll be watching Tom Pohlad like a hawk. This can't be it.

Caratini is owed 6.5 this year and 3.5 million for a buy out. How much will the team you trade with require the team to eat. My guess is substantial.

I personally believe in all matters of life. It's not what you do... it's what you do after. Jeffers issued a QO and Jeffers taking the offer. That is what you do and that is what he does. What do they do after?

If Tom is going to spend. 160 million. Go get em Tom. This team has starting pitching depth. It has a hard throwing bullpen. It has 6 infielders who could all be starters. It has 5 outfielders who could all be starters. It' a roster built for 162 games. Free Agents... Sato and Morejon (as a starter). I'm just putting names down to represent the types of players I'd want for 2027. Bauers can substitute for Sato. I just want a big bat at 1B to be brought in. Morejon can be replaced by Rogers or someone in the upper shelf of the available starting pitchers. If they want go get King that's fine with me. But, see if you can bring in a starter that is better than Ober or Kremer. We will need someone who will join Bradley for 2028 going forward to mitigate the wall. Trade acquisitions Casey Schmitt, Jeremiah Estrada and Sam Bachman. Again... just representations of the type of players that I would like to acquire. Doesn't have to be Schmitt, Estrada or Bachman. I want a capable infielder. Larnach, Ober, Kremer, Wallner plus unnamed minor league players for trade capital. I would like to keep Wallner for another run at it but I know I would be crucified for it by Twinsdaily. Wallner had a bad couple of months... no doubt about that. But he had some great months for us before that. But, if I list him... too many want him gone so I didn't list him. Keaschall is listed as the DH... but I would not have a permanent DH. The DH would be used to get all our talented depth into the lineup more often. We would have 11 players for 8 positions if you don't count the Catcher position which is it's own rotation. More playing time goes to the players who are earning it. Less playing time for anyone who isn't earning it. If we end up with 11 guys who are killing it. The manager will have a good problem because it won't matter who plays... a team like that will win 100 games. Unfortunately... that won't happen. Someone is going to perform like Lewis or Wallner did last season. Someone is going to get hurt. I'm not afraid of youth. I'm afraid of no safety nets if Culpepper really struggles or if anyone gets hurt. I'm afraid of asking role players to take on larger roles when players struggle or players get hurt so I don't want role players on the roster. I'm afraid of not enough talent. I want too much talent be it realized or unrealized talent. I want too much talent. I want the manager to lose sleep at night because he has too many options. It can be done and this is how you build a team for 162 games and a team built for 162 teams is the first thing Tom Pohlad mentioned that we didn't have in the press conference about what went wrong in 2026. So here is a team built for 162 games. C: Victor Caratini ($7.00M) 1B: Teruaki Sato ($26.00M) 2B: Kody Clemens ($3.60M) 3B: Brooks Lee ($1.00M) SS: Kaelen Culpepper ($1.00M) LF: Emmanuel Rodiguez ($1.00M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Walker Jenkins ($1.00M) DH: Luke Keaschall ($1.00M) 4th OF: alan roden ($1.00M) Utility: Casey Schmitt ($2.50M) Utility: Royce Lewis ($5.10M) Backup C: Alex Jackson ($2.00M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($9.60M) SP3: Taj Bradley ($4.50M) SP4: Adrian Morejon ($20.00M) SP5: Connor Prielipp ($1.00M) RP: Jeff Hoffman ($7.25M) RP: Yoendrys Gomez ($2.30M) RP: Tommy Nance ($1.20M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($1.00M) RP: Jeremiah Estrada ($1.00M) RP: Andrew Morris ($1.00M) RP: sam bachman ($1.00M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($10.00M) Payroll is 9.91% over budget

If Jeffers takes it. It better be Jeffers for 120 games and Caratini for 42. If Jeffers takes it. It will be 4 Starting pitchers departing and 2 catchers departing following the season. Pitchers and Catchers running full speed into the same wall. If Jeffers takes it. I will be watching further investment into the team like a hawk. It can't blow the budget.

He has until November 17 to decide. If he declines... the Twins can still compete in free agency. If they are willing to pay 23 they should be willing to pay 16 for multiple seasons. Two capable catchers? Every team should prefer that. Was Vazquez capable?

I'm not saying he will rebound... he might. Players bounce up and down season to season. Regardless. We bought him and when we signed him... he was a catcher who hit good for a catcher. That's a big distinction and we dropped 14 million on someone who hit good for a catcher and the plan was to backup Jeffers and be the short side 1B for Clemens. It was a terrible plan. Here he is. Sleep in the bed you made. It will be a long season if you don't invest elsewhere. I've used the term punt and I understand that takes guts but... catchers typically don't hit the ball so just ask them to field until Lackey and Tait come in the door. Here's why it's OK to punt the position offensively. The White sox had perhaps the worst hitting in baseball in 2026. The Phillies catchers did not hit the ball. The Yankees catchers didn't hit the ball. The Red Sox, Gaurdians... Didn't hit the ball from behind home plate. The Rays were not strong offensively from the Catching position. The Twins were ranked 6th behind the Rockies. Our 1B position ranked 26th. Spend the money right here. We can punt the catcher position.

I've been talking a lot about talent lately. This is kinda what I'm talking about. We choose crafty experienced for a million or two instead of choosing upside. Pitchers who could get better instead of pitchers you hope can craft your way through. We should let younger struggle but we let older struggle. Talent... Realized or unrealized. Just as long as it's talent.

I think we have a better chance of finding a stronger bullpen arm through trade. Maybe someone you and I haven't really heard of. Some 100 MPH heater with some control problems just waiting to be straightened out. Bullpens on all 30 teams are filled... with who are these guys with big stuff. We can find some. Catcher... This is what they brought Caratini in for. We owe him 10 million and we can't recoup that. I want no further investment in the position. Players rebound all the time. Maybe he will return to hitting what he was hitting that earned him the contract. Can't really do anything about it. If Jackson can play defense... Whatever he hits is gravy. Spending more on catching is going to water down what we can pursue for a King Kong Bat or a good starting pitcher. Umm... even though we may not pursue that anyway. 😉

We agree on a lot of things. Catcher though... That spot is like the bullpen in terms of prioritization.