Riverbrian

It's tough decision time? I seriously doubt that it's tough decision time. Decision time comes when there is an injury and who gets hurt will make that decision easier. Farmer and Margot are not going anywhere. The Roster will operate how the roster operates.

Let me put my tongue on that.

I'm not sure if any post. Some might because it's awfully tempting to fight back. But I will guarantee that they lurk. Like putting your tongue on a canker sore... they will lurk because they are being talked about. I Guarantee it.

Reynaldo Lopez -- 1.69 Seth Lugo -- 2.40 Ronel Blanco -- 2.43 Jordan Hicks -- 3.01 Garrett Crochet - 3.16 Zach Littell -- 4.24 A.J. Puk -- 6.84 #1 - Can you hang zeroes. #2 - How many zeroes can you hang, Sticking players in pre-fabricated starter or reliever boxes is limiting and those boxes are the only reason this discussion exists. Shut down relievers should throw more innings and inning eating starters should eat less. Varland needs to work on the hanging zeroes part.

The lamentation will not stop. You forgot to add my favorite. Just gonna lose in the playoffs anyway.

Julien does have the infield advantage over them. Julien can still compete with Wallner and Kirilloff for an OF opening because of Castro. If Julien gets the call. Castro vacates the handcuff with Farmer at 2B and Castro can plug any spot that opens. If Santana stays healthy. I wouldn't bet against his leading the team in AB's. If Wallner leaves immediately after his game today in St. Paul... He should have time to drive over and catch the 2nd game today and sit in the LF bleachers... have a dog and a beer.

Just a handful of superstars in the game. Royce is one of them. If he can just stay healthy for a decent stretch. The world will see.

Wallner, Kirilloff and Julien have themselves in interesting situations. Now that all 3 of them are in the minors. Instead of 3 MLB jobs for 3 guys when the season started... the three of them will now be competing with each other for 1 single solitary MLB job. That solitary job opens when an injury occurs to someone because Margot and Farmer are not going to be let go.

I'm intrigued. Can you expand on this.

I can't argue that because I think you are right... However... If the skill is stable. Why are Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner down in the minors? What are we gaining using two roster spots to keep a Farmer on hand to protect a Julien? Just being the devil's advocate.

I just used OPS down and dirty. I make no effort to bang the gavel down on any small sample size metrics. I just use it to make a point that the numbers are unstable. Castro hit right handers last year and Castro is hitting left handers this year. Agreed on your point. You need more data to stabilize any data and it's this bouncing ball that is being chased to justify the platooning.

Failure is a strong word with both the young lefties and it's a strong word for the front office as well. The proper word is something less than failure... Call it a slip... But it was at least a degree of a mistake of some sorts. Yes all 3 young left handed batters haven't been what was hoped and they are all down in the minors now. The front office built this roster with the expectation that those 3 young left handers would not slip or fail or no gets injured (Slip and Fall would work for injury). 😉 Our extra roster inventory was used up entirely for players who are best used to cover for the young left handers and hopefully not needed to face right handed hitters. Well those left handers are gone now and Santana, Margot and Farmer will now have to cover for them against right handers with a .667, .525 and .502 OPS.

Using Julien as an example. His numbers looked pretty good last year. .263 Batting Average - .839 OPS - 16 Home Runs in 408 AB's. I'm not anti-platoon. I believe that it is quite possible that if he was allowed to hit left handers last year. Those numbers may not have looked as nice. I'm willing to recognize that the platoon helped at least the optics of his overall numbers in his rookie season. I'm willing to concede that Julien facing left handers may have dragged, drug his overall numbers down. Corbin Carroll in 2023 a young left hander who was not platooned. (I know that Julien is not Corbin Carroll). Had 174 PA's against left handers - He had a total of 650 PA's for 26.7% against left handers. Julien in 2023 had 48 PA's against left handers - He had a total of 408 PA's. That's 11.7%. In order to reach the Corbin percentage. Julien would have to add 83 PA's against Left Handed Pitchers to reach the Carroll every day percentage. I won't use OPS because there are way too many assumptions that need to be made on these hypothetical extra 84 AB's for OPS. In terms of Batting Average. If he maintained his .196 BA over those extra 83 trips to the plate against left handers. His overall batting average would drop to .252 and the fan base isn't as excited. However... and this is important. Assuming that Julien remains at .196 in those 83 AB's against Lefties. I don't assume that... I assume that he will be better over time but let's leave him static. That's 17 hits over 83 AB's. A. 333 batting average against lefties in 83 trips to the plate is 27 hits. 10 more hits for the .333 guy on the short side of the platoon. But... we are not talking about a .333 batting average on the short side of that platoon. Margot is .300 and Farmer is .224. they combine for .266 .266 over 83 AB's is 22 hits. If Julien doesn't improve with more exposure. I think he would... We gained 5 hits with the platoon over a fairly significant period of time. Those extra 5 hits came at the cost of development. They came at the cost of an extra roster spot dedicated to achieving those extra 5 hits. And they came at the cost of short side right handers needing to face right handers because there are so many of them. The 5 hits are nice

The Twins are holding them by the ankle and dipping them in cement. They will never be able to hit left handers because even if they did hit left handers... the sample will never be big enough to justify it. If I'm Walter Jenkins... I'm hating that the Twins drafted me because the Twins are going to hurt him. You practically guarantee that the Twins will have to replace Margot next year with another Margot because someone has to wait for the left hander. Every Margot you sign... it's one less spot to develop a player who won't need to be platooned and if you don't develop players who don't need to be platooned... you have to sign more Margot types. Which leads to less spots to develop a player who doesn't need to be platooned... which leads to the need to sign more Margots. Now of course... If the Twins do happen to develop someone who doesn't need to be platooned... He is going to be a right handed hitter because the left handed hitter still needs to sit to feed the Margot. Endless cycle that you can't get away from and it will spin with increasing momentum.

Nearly every team in baseball utilizes a platoon or two or even three. No team in baseball places every single left handed hitter they have into handcuffs, grabs the top of their head and shoves them in the back seat of the police car for the crime of being left handed.

Which brings up another point. The Ole' Bouncing Ball. Castro was better against right handed pitching last year... This year he is better against left handed pitching. Years prior... left handers. Ryan Jeffers is all of a sudden better against right handers this year.

If Rocco was asked why he platoons. I'm pretty sure that whatever he says... long answer short answer... it doesn't matter... he will be telling you that his players are not good enough in some form or fashion. Players who are good enough are not platooned.

I don't know much about my neighbors financial situation but he sold his boat and bought three canoes.

I had a friend and his job required the occasional flight and he wouldn't fly because he was afraid of a crash. Actually... more specifically... he was afraid of a bomb being on the plane. I told him that he was being silly because the odds had to be astronomical but he still wouldn't get on that plane and he spent his weekends driving from North Dakota to California for his job. I kept on him... the company is buying you a flight... He didn't trust me telling him about the odds so he called Las Vegas to get the odds that a bomb would be on his plane and Las Vegas said 100 Million to 1. He still didn't like those odds so he wouldn't get on a plane. So... he called Vegas again and asked what the odds are that two bombs are on a plane and Vegas said 10 Billion to 1. He was OK with those odds and now he is flying to California for his job but he always carries a bomb with him when he does.

The front office shouldn't have set up the roster in the preseason this way. Now that it is set up this way. I agree with you when you ask... What is Rocco supposed to do? Indeed... what is he supposed to do?. Same question you ask a person who is painted into a corner. Gonna have to leave some footprints getting out of it. Probably ruin your shoes.

And of course: Castro, Santana, Farmer and Margot are 4 players who were rostered not to be starters and all 4 have clearly better career stats against left handed pitching. Have thus far combined for 476 PA's against right handed pitching in 2024 with Castro #1 and Santana #2 on the list. Divide that by 4 and you have an average of 119 PA's against right handed pitching. Ryan Jeffers currently leads the team in plate appearances against left handed pitching with... (Dramatic Pause)... Ladies and Gentlemen... 69 PA's. We are providing an average of 119 sub-par PA's to avoid what would be a maximum of 69 sub-par PA's but in reality average out to 57 PA's. Based on Kepler, Julien, Larnach and Wallner having a combined 47 PA's against lefties this year. For an average of 12 each. Individually: Castro - 184 vs RH - 59 vs LH --- .710 OPS vs RH - .955 OPS vs LH Santana - 169 vs RH - 58 vs LH --- .679 OPS vs RF - .834 OPS vs LH Margot - 63 vs RH - 65 vs LH --- .502 vs OPS vs RH - .785 OPS vs LH Farmer - 60 vs RH - 53 vs LH --- .525 OPS vs RH - .607 vs LH We are giving up more than we are getting. Every batter is at least close to 50% against right handed pitching when 25% of pitching is left handed... We are giving up more than we are getting!!! They played the platoon split incorrectly and have accidently created a disadvantage trying to gain an advantage. With all of the analytics produced by the front office. They missed this rather large thing.

Thanks for this article @Nick Nelson This is the price that you pay when you spend 15 million dollars in the off-season to roster 3 players who hit left handers and struggle against right handers. 6 million on Farmer, 5 million on Santana and 4 million on Margot and we didn't have the 15 million to spend. We added 3 players to the roster with stronger stats against left handers and weaker stats against right handers... just to protect the three young left handers. AND... AND purposely placing development roadblocks to make the OVERALL WELL ROUNDED development more challenging for these young left handed hitters. AND... AND... Let's not forget that Lee (Better against lefties) and Erod are on deck. The Twins front office clearly over corrected in an attempt to protect our three young left handed hitters. They are now all gone and we got a pile of something not intended at the moment. We are set up great to face left handers and set up poorly to face right handers. I'll add another point to the great points you make in this great article. With the addition of Martin and the demotion of Kirilloff. We are currently overstocked with batters who stand in the right handed batters box against left handed pitching. We have 11 on the current roster but let's call it 10 with two of the players being catchers. The lineup card only allows for 9. Someone is going to sit against left handers consistently or you are rotating players to sit against left handers that pop up 25% of the time. Here's another point that I'll add to the great points that you make in this great article. Kepler and Larnach are the two remaining lefties. There is no way that they are going to start against lefties now. Two of the right handed hitters will platoon the right side for a total of 4 players committed to the platoon. Once you consider that two roster spots go to catchers... this means that 7 players will have to face both right handers and left handers... 6 at least of the 7 in every lineup. Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Castro, Miranda, Santana and ???... I have no idea who the 7th player will be but It won't be Kepler or Larnach or the catchers. That leaves Margot, Farmer and Martin to play every day or a rotation is set up amongst the three or two of them. How's it going to work? DH - Miranda C - Jeffers/Vazquez 1B - Santana 2B - Castro/Farmer 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Larnach/Castro CF - Buxton RF - Kepler/Margot Martin pinch running and playing CF when Buxton gets a maintenance day? Maybe in addition to a rotation with Margot and Farmer against the dreaded lefty? (Late Addition to this post - 1st lineup out against a RH... Martin in and Miranda out). The roster was set up all pretty for platoon in 3 spots coming out of spring training providing nobody got hurt or nobody struggled. It stopped being pretty when the first injury happened and injuries were always going to happen. It has gotten really ugly when all 3 young left handed hitters were sent to the minors and players struggling is an every year occurrence. Anyway... We are set against the left handers that we will face 25% of the time. We better be... We spent 15 million that we don't have attacking it. I've come to the conclusion that we would have been better off attacking the 75% and fight through the 25% with the hope that the young left handed batters develop into better hitters against left handed pitchers through more exposure.

Please forgive me but this is something I try to correct when I see it. Super Utility is what Castro is right now. What you describe returning Castro to is closer to Utility. Super Utility is a player who plays every day at multiple positions. Think Zobrist or Bellinger with the Dodgers when he would move between 1B and the OF. Castro currently plays everyday at 2B, LF and CF. With the potential to SS if Correa needs a day off or 3B if needed. As long as Castro is playing every day at multiple positions. He's super utility. Utility is a player who spends time on the bench waiting to fill in at multiple positions. Other than that... I wouldn't mind a 2B addition to this club (what happened to the log jam) and returning Castro to the role you describe.

You are right that a lot can change in the next 45 days. However... I think it's fair to point out: Brandon Pfaadt had a .5.79 ERA during the regular season last year for the D-Backs. Then turned in a 3.27 in the playoffs. He's back up to 4.60 this year. Nobody was thinking in June that the D-Backs were set for the playoffs because of Brandon Pfaadt. It was nice to have Gallen and Kelly in the starting rotation they were both great in 2023 but there was nothing beyond that including Pfaadt. However it is fair to point out that Gallen wasn't a strong performer in the playoffs. Arizona had 5 hitters who were doing decently during the regular season. Carroll, Marte, Walker, Gurriel and let's throw Moreno behind the plate in that group. CF, SS and 3B were question marks. Pham was acquired cheaply and he had a nice post season. The Rangers got by with Montgomery, Eovaldi and Heaney in the playoffs. Scherzer was not a playoff factor. Gray and Dunning worked out of the pen. Degrom was hurt. The acquisition of Montgomery was huge for the Rangers. Although... The Rangers simply bashed their way to a title. Seager, Garcia, Jung and Carter were rock stars and couldn't be stopped for 17 games. Anyway... I agree that a lot can change in the next 45 days. I fully admit that I loudly wanted Max Kepler cut in June and he went nuclear after the all star break to help us into the playoffs... so yeah a lot can change. However... a lot can change between September 29 and October 1st. Because Kepler struck out 10 times in 23 AB's in the playoffs with 5 hits... no home runs and a .554 OPS. I don't trust myself to predict who will step up in the playoffs and I don't trust front offices to make those predictions either. Load up the best you can to make the playoffs and get hot at the right time.

No pressure is being applied to Vazquez. Camargo gets the call when an injury occurs and probably minimal playing time when that happens. Castro is firmly #3 on the depth chart and whatever he does won't change that. Unless Olivar goes meteoric rising from his current location in Cedar Rapids.