I don’t think extra wins would be easily calculated or very important because as we’ve seen, everything would have needed to go terrible wrong for them to drop out of the division lead, and they were basically guaranteed the 3 seed anyway.
with that being said, having only 4 reliable relievers has put a huge strain on the pen and all 4 are showing signs of overwork. Twins aren’t leading the league in bullpen innings, but they’re near the top in close games in the late innings and when they’ve played the second half with only 3 or 4 good, healthy relievers with the rest being dreadful, that’s a recipe for potential disaster. The twins offense decided to become a top 5 offense in the second half though, so it doesn’t matter.
The hope now is that they can lock this up early, rest Thielbar, Duran and Jax and either get quality innings out of Varland or get Stewart back healthy. I think they’ll likely get one of those.