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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    The Blue Jays probably won't need to settle for the best offer on the table with how few sellers there seem to be. There should be strong interest from the Yankees, Phillies, Astros, Brewers, Twins and maybe Cardinals, Braves, A's, Angels or others as well. Its very possible that the Giants and Diamondbacks stay put instead of selling, if that happens the starting pitching market is very dry. Someone can probably beat this offer for Stroman. Personally I would rather go the rental route if we grab a starter and spend cash in the off season for the 2020 rotation.
  2. SomeGuy
    Not only are you asking a team that might not sell to sell, you're suggesting they move one of their best controllable assets. I have a hard time believing the Reds would move Gray at all. They made it clear that they are ending the rebuilding phase. They took a chance on extending Gray after a bad season and it is paying off. They now have a good cheap pitcher for 3-4 more seasons. Any deal for Gray should require a massive overpay. Tanner Roark is probably available....
  3. SomeGuy
    I don't think Grienke hates the Twins. It is known that he prefers the National League though. He likes hitting and probably doesn't enjoy facing DH either. Another thing to consider is how he feels about Arizona's current playoff chances. He probably doesn't want to walk away from his teammates while they are 0.5 games out of the playoffs and have the 2nd best run differential in the NL. He probably values his current teams playoff push more than joining another one.
  4. SomeGuy
    Matt Chapman left yesterdays game with an ankle injury. Availability is unknown.
  5. SomeGuy
    They gained 4 games on the wildcard since July 1st and passed 3 teams in that stretch. With how close everyone is, passing 6 teams isn't that big of a deal. They could pass 2 teams today if they win and San Diego losses, they would be tied for 3rd in their division. They have been 22-15 since June 1st and the 5 teams immediately ahead of them have been playing poorly. I still think they sell or should sell but I also think they can ask for more now that they have this illusion of being in the race.They can rightly argue that the buying team would be taking them out of contention. The NL should be fun to watch at the deadline and hopefully in the final days of the season. The new trade deadline is already having a huge impact. I think multiple fan bases will be disappointed in decisions to sell so close to the wildcard while other teams will wish they sold when they drop off after the deadline.
  6. SomeGuy
    The Marlins don't have to cut payroll anymore, they only pay 70M this year and have more than 20M leaving the team after the season. Outside of Wei-Yun Chen they are all cheap, they will not need to sacrifice young talent to unload his 1 remaining season. They will be much better off paying him and keeping the talent as they near the end of their rebuild. In all likely hood they aren't competing next season either but they will head into the off season with less than 50M on the books. With a good starting rotation and bullpen, they aren't that far from ending the rebuild. Overall point, they are better off paying Chen for 1 more year than sacrificing young talent that they can use over the next 4 seasons like Caleb Smith. They aren't at the cutting payroll phase anymore.
  7. SomeGuy
    ESPN suggests a Bumgarner/Smith trade would require something like Kirilloff, Thorpe and 2 more. The Stroman/Giles combo should cost more than the Bumgarner/Smith rentals. I think it would work better for the Twins and especially the Blue Jays to go Johnny Cash on this one (one piece at a time). The Yankees probably aren't interested in Ken Giles but would put together a nice deal for Stroman (propbably centered around MLB ready Clint Frazier). With the number of teams on the bubble this year, Stroman's extra year might be the target for many teams. Just Stroman alone is going to take a haul. It would almost certainly take one of the "untouchables" to grab both Stroman and Giles. From MLB.com on the lesser duo of Bumgarner/Smith Giants stars Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith are two of the biggest names on the trade rumor mill. It’s not often we see a rebuilding team put multiple chips in one deal, but could it happen? One possibility, as suggested by ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle (subscription required), would send both free-agent-to-be lefties to the upstart AL Central-leading Twins for prospects: outfielder Alex Kirilloff, southpaw Lewis Thorpe and two more young pieces.
  8. SomeGuy
    Yeah Cleveland didn't really make themselves much worse over the offseason. When they had a poor start to the year many people thought it was because of selling but it was really just bad injury luck. How could any team expect to compete without Clevinger, Kluber, and Carrasco for an extended time? They also had Lindor out for a stretch and Jose Ramirez is finally starting to play at his usual level. Its really impressive the Indians are where they are. If less players or just less important players were to get injured, the Indians are probably the division champ like everyone thought. Its not that the Indians misjudged the Twins state, they just had a serious run of injuries to their most important players. Terry Francona is their MVP. Michael Brantley was the only real loss in the offseason but how does a small market team justify spending that much on a guy they know first hand was always injured? Their trades were good moves. It is scary that the Indians get Kluber, Salazar, and possibly Carrasco back without making any deadline moves. They could do a soft buy and grab a cheap outfielder (someone like Corey Dickerson) and maybe a reliever, and I think they would be a very good team.
  9. SomeGuy
    It should be noted how much he has cooled off. Last 30 days 6.29 ERA, 5.51 FIP, 5.19xFIP Teams faced: Royals x2 (23rd in runs scored), Tigers (30th), Rays (19th), Athletics (10th)
  10. SomeGuy
    I don't think 38th is too conservative for a 16 year old but Fangraphs does have him at 19th in their international rankings instead of the 8th he was in mlb.com.
  11. SomeGuy
    4 homeruns in 7 days for Sano. K% of 21.7 in that span.
  12. SomeGuy
    Exactly, will they all figure out like ours did? Does Reynaldo Lopez rebound and Giolito continue this progress? etc. We will see. Maybe the key prospects like Eloy Jimenez and Kopech/Cease go into a will they-won't they scenario for 3-4 years like Buxton did.
  13. SomeGuy
    They have been seeing that inconsistency with prospects that we went through. Giolito,Tim Anderson, and Moncado take giant steps forward this year while Reynaldo Lopez takes a huge step back. Eloy Jimenez and Ryan Cordell are still trying to figure it out. Carlos Rodon takes a big step back before needing TJ surgery, Michael Kopech and 4 other top 30 prospects are also out for season and might have hurt their development. They should be a really good team but its kind of like the recent Twins seasons where you are wondering what they actually have in these players. I'm not as high on their rebuild as I was the last couple seasons but they could still have a great team soon. A lot of top prospects are turning into question marks.
  14. SomeGuy
    It will be interesting how the agent turned GM will approach the trade deadline. Especially after how aggressive he was going all in during the offseason. He was pretty strict about winning now and probably has the same mentality about 2020. I'm guessing its rentals only from them, Frazier, Vargas, Wheeler, etc.
  15. SomeGuy
    Polanco and Garver have joined Cron in that OPS funk. Last 30 days Cron 9th on Team in that span with .769 (.833 Season) Garver 10th with .724 (.972 season) Polanco 11th with .719 (.899 season)
  16. SomeGuy
    The Front Office is very happy with the current team. The idea of this offseason was to compete this season without committing to the next 3 seasons. We could compete now for cheap and allow some development time to prospects. Should things have gone the other way, we could have easily reversed coarse but I don't think that was assumed to be selling these one year deals. As you can see with the dirt cheap Polanco/Kepler contracts, this FO has an eye for value. Not only have the deals worked out but the development side has worked out well too. Buxton confirmed that he was worth waiting for. Arraez seems able to take over 2nd now, etc. A big question mark for us was what we already had not just what we were getting from these filler signings. And honestly we wouldn't get a bounty for any of them either. What would a team give up for half a season of Schoop? Even selling Cruz would be trying to convince 1 or 2 AL teams to fit a 38 year old, DH only into their roster. He's clearly still a good hitter but there wouldn't be enough competition for him to really get a great return. I find it really unlikely that we signed them hoping they would put up decent numbers and trade them for middling prospects instead of winning with them.
  17. SomeGuy
    In theory he could enter the game with a 10 run deficit as a reliever every time and not impact the outcome at all. Or we could just keep him where he has excelled and hope he hands our bullpen a late lead like he normally does. Also noticing a trend where the super relievers from each post season get hurt or are ineffective the following season(s). Chapman, Andrew Miller, Corey Knebel, etc.
  18. SomeGuy
    The Bumgarner is so great in the playoffs statement seems out dated. He hasn't had a great playoff run since 2014. He's had 1 great game and one bad game in the playoffs since then (both in 2016). We have no idea how good Bumgarner would be in a 2019 playoff run. Felix Hernandez was great 5 years ago too. (drastic comparison but Bumgarner has fallen off a bit since then too, 5 years is a long time ago)
  19. SomeGuy
    Berrios is our best current pitcher by a mile and should absolutely start game 1 of any playoff series. You're worrying too much about stats in ballparks or stats versus teams. These don't compare well in a player to player comparison. For instance how does Berrios sample size in Tropicano Field compare to Odorizzi who called it home for so many years? How does Pineda's sample size against the Yankees stack up to everyone who didn't play most of their career for them? Gibson, Berrios, or Perez versus Pineda or Odorizzi in Fenway/Yankee Stadium/Tropicano doesn't really work because Pineda and Odorizzi were in the AL East for a long time. These comparisons are almost never on an equal footing. I don't see an argument that any of our current pitchers has better stuff or track record than Berrios and he should be used in as many games as possible in the playoffs. Game 1 starter all the way.
  20. SomeGuy
    Fangraphs mid season for comparison Poppen - Not Ranked in top 46 Wiel - NR Ober - NR Stewart - NR Maciel - 31 (25 in MLB.com preseason, 27 in fangraph preseason)
  21. SomeGuy
    I don't see Cleveland selling at the deadline. They have stayed within a game of the wild card so far and this is without vintage Kluber, Carrasco, and Clevinger. With Clevenger back and Kluber throwing again they could easily make a run at the wild card or more. Interesting side note, they had a 39-33 record this time last year compared to 39-34 now. Plus look at their schedule leading up to the deadline. Detroit - 7 games Kansas City - 13 games!!! Baltimore - 3 games Toronto - 3 games Cincinnati - 2 games Minnesota - 3 games Houston - 2 games Texas - 1 game 26 games versus really bad teams and just 5 against good teams.
  22. SomeGuy
    I do like his strategy of screaming profanities at the players that hit homeruns off him.
  23. SomeGuy
    2018-2019 BABIP of .286 and 19 homerun in 378 PA 5.02% 2017 BABIP of .375 and 28 homerun in 483 PA 5.08% I can see his BABIP increasing over time which was my original point but I don't think homeruns are causing the 75 point decrease on his career BABIP. BABIP isn't a perfect vacuum to measure but if he can continue to hit the ball hard his BABIP and average should pick up a bit. His sample size is small enough to make this kind of a silly discussion but 2 less homeruns would make his rate really close but less than 2017, if both those homeruns instead fell for hits he would be about .320 BABIP. A "normal" homerun rate still wouldn't have him at career levels. Look at Joey Gallo, career highs in homerun rate, hard hit%, and BABIP
  24. SomeGuy
    Its not like he found his homerun stroke this year compared to 2015-2017 when he posted great BABIP numbers. For someone who consistently makes hard contact he should see a higher BABIP. His homerun totals shouldn't explain his decrease in BABIP. His homerun to flyball rate is pretty much what it was in 2017 but his BABIP is 100 points lower.
  25. SomeGuy
    Sano's BABIP might explain some of his low batting average. His batted ball stats are pretty consistent over his career. His hard hit% is 13th highest for players with 60+ PA but his BABIP is 5th lowest of the top 30 Hard Hit% leaders. No reason his BABIP can't be around .350 with what he is doing now, a little boost in BA might be coming. 2015 .396 2016 .329 2017 .375 2018 .286 2019 .286 Career .345
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