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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    This was covered in a lengthy post on Major League Trade Rumors, and they concluded that he is not eligible for the 4th year exception.
  2. arby58
    I don't understand this comment. Rodriguez' OPS has been above .800 every year (sometimes crazily above). From 2021 to 2026 it goes: .870; 1.044; .863; 1.026; .839; .923. Sounds like he is quite able to hit.
  3. arby58
    I think it's about time to remove Buxton from these comparisons. He played 102 games in 2024, 126 in 2025 and has played in 44 of 54 games this season. Over 162 games, that would translate into 132 games played.
  4. arby58
    I also won't disagree, but he will need to turn things around IF he is to be viewed as anything but a liability. I hope you're right that he will. He is not good defensively at 1B, and if Jeffers returns and needs to mostly DH for awhile, what happens to Bell? It's notable that the only player so far this year with a worse WAR for the Twins is currently playing in St. Paul. RBIs are something of a stat of opportunity, and with the Twins second in the AL in runs scored, there have been plenty of opportunities for a hitter in the middle of the order. That said, you would expect better than a .363 slugging percentage and .647 OPS from the someone batting in the heart of the order.
  5. arby58
    There are a few other constants: Larnach is going to play LF against right-handed pitching, and Martin is going to be in either RF or LF pretty much every day. It's also pretty clear who will be the starting rotation, barring injury or innings caps. We also know who will be catching, and when Jeffers comes back, he will be in the lineup most every day (although it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of those days he DHs, at least at first).
  6. arby58
    Right now, we are a contender, and he's contributing. If he regresses, it's a conversation to have. The one I'd be looking to upgrade at the moment is Bell.
  7. arby58
    Third base is mostly about quick reflexes and strong hand/eye coordination - the range is pretty limited right to left stuff, and speed is not at a premium. Look at the all-time leaders in gold gloves there - Brooks Robinson stole 28 bases in his career. Even more recent GG winners - Nolan Arenado had 32 stolen bases for his career.
  8. arby58
    Right now Clemens deserves to be the 1B. He's good defensively, and is 4th on the team in WAR. He also leads the team in doubles and has nearly as many walks as Ks.
  9. arby58
    I was not a Rocco hater, but Shelton just seems a little more 'grounded' in the way he manages.
  10. arby58
    Well, you're getting warmer with the mention of Plouffe. In his 18 year old season in rookie ball, he had 217 chances and 16 errors at SS. That is still a .926 fielding %age, quite a bit better than Young's .882. Plouffe had 522 chances in A ball at age 19 and 35 errors - but that was still a .933 fielding %age.
  11. arby58
    I'd challenge you to find the players who put up these kind of error numbers/chances who 'developed' into a solid MLB SS (his numbers at 3B are even worse). Just looked back at Royce Lewis. He played SS in rookie league at 18 (Young is 19) and had 125 chances and 4 errors. He was 'still learning' back then too. At 19, Polanco was in A ball and had 201 chances and 5 errors. Those are the stats of players 'still learning' who might actually stay on the left side of the infield.
  12. arby58
    Quentin Young had 2 more errors - he's now got 16 errors in 111 chances. Get the guy a 1B glove and away from the left side of the infield.
  13. arby58
    The author notes this, but the underlying statistics are encouraging. The Twins caught utility player lightning in a bottle with Willi Castro - it's possible they knew what they were doing in taking a flyer on him.
  14. arby58
    With the exception of the East, the rest of the American League this year is a 'terrible division.' The West is even worse than the Central. Right now, Cleveland has the third best record in the AL (and both those ahead of them are in the East), and the leader in the West is one game over .500.
  15. arby58
    If they only lose 75 games, they will be in the play-offs - they might make it if they lose 81. They have plenty of their key AAA players already getting MLB exposure (Prielipp, Rojas, Adams) not to mention Abel and Bradley. Given that the two most likley additional call ups (Jenkins and Emma) are injured, I'm not sure what else you would want them to do. I expect both will make it up before the end of the year. I suppose you could make the case for older players (Fedko, Sabato), but they're both 27 and seem like more of the same AAAA types. That only really leaves Culpepper, and he has only just now gotten a taste of AAA. I think it is right to keep him there for now. He has done ok at that level but not banging the door down for a promotion.
  16. arby58
    You'd love to see it, but one of the big franchises is going to throw money at Ryan that the Twins cannot match. That is just the reality of MLB without a salary cap. The good news is the next wave (Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Rojas) looks good, and Lopez and Ober are still around as well. Starting pitchiing is probably the one position going forward where the Twins don't have to overpay.
  17. arby58
    In the strike shortened 1981 season, the Twins went 41-68, which would equate to 61-101 over a 162 game season. In 1982, they went 60-102. Be careful what you wish for. This Twins team isn't going to lose 102 games.
  18. arby58
    Royce Lewis was never 'completely harmless' in his call up to the Twins. 12 games in 2022, .867 OPS and 143 OPS+. |n 2023, in 58 games, he was .921 OPS and 249 OPS+. Maybe you are thinking of another Royce Lewis?
  19. arby58
    I'm not sure I buy in that the Twins are all that different. Just look at Outman, who was a Dodgers 'shining star' and then he wasn't. Both Lewis and Kirilloff were the products of injuries, and, again, the Twins are not unique there. It's way too early to write off Keaschall - lots of players struggle their second year in MLB, and Keaschall didn't even have a full first year. Wallner is a typical boom or bust power hitter. Who knows with him? Rooker is the example of a player who, after multiple teams tried, he finally figured it out.
  20. arby58
    I agree that a catcher is probably on a long end of the recovery timeline. That said, I doubt it will hurt his free agency value that much - it's not like a torn ACL or multiple concussions. A broken bone that fully heals isn't that much more likely to be broken again. Given Jeffers' strong performance this year, he will be in demand in the FA market.
  21. arby58
    It isn't just the Twins - welcome to MLB, especially for pitchers.
  22. arby58
    Bowman opted out - don't blame him. Garcia gave up an ER, 2 hits, walked a batter, has an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP close to 2. It's bizarre that they let Bowman go and kept Garcia.
  23. arby58
    The offense isn't the problem. They are tied for 8th in runs scored. So all the position players you complain about are still resulting in an offense that is better than nearly every team in baseball. I think we sometimes forget that the average player is 'flalying away' on 75% of his at bats. The problems are the bullpen, one starting pitcher, and defense.
  24. arby58
    Emma has to be healthy first. I still think it's the All Star break for significant changes. Whatever you do with SWR, he needs to be out of the rotation, and Zebby deserves another few starts.
  25. arby58
    If the Twins really are 'trying to win' then you wave good bye to the starting pitcher with SWR's numbers, you promote Bowman and put Zebby back in the rotation. If they really do send Zebby down and give SWR another start, what does that say about the importance of accountability?
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