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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    In the 10 start stretch in June and July 2024, Richardson went 5, 7, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4 innings for the Twins. That averages out to 5.5 innings per start, which is higher than the league average for starting pitchers last year. It's simply not true that he can't pitch deep into games because of his stuff.
  2. arby58
    I don't know where you are getting your information from, but it is wrong. This is a screenshot from Baseball Reference for his starts in June and July 2024:
  3. arby58
    SWR went over 5 innings in 10 of his 28 starts and 5 innings in another 4. He had a stretch of four starts where he went 6 innings each time. His average was hurt by his last 6 starts, where he went less than 5 innings each time. It's also worth noting that the MLB average innings for starting pitchers last year was just a little over 5.
  4. arby58
    Except he wasn't a 'non-CF rookie.' Look at the numbers - he's played CF at each level since college and through the minor and major leagues. He may not be very good at it (the statistics with the Twins seem to bear that out), but it is not accurate to say he was not experienced at the position.
  5. arby58
    I've thought that as well. He's certainly athletic enough for the position. Throws from third have been more of a problem than fielding, and at 6'2" Royce will have pretty good reach. You'd wish he was a left-handed thrower, but nothing's perfect.
  6. arby58
    As I've posted elsewhere, this started with Toronto, where he played SS 27 games and CF 26 games for their AA franchise, and the Twins mostly repeated that the remainder of that year and doubled down the next year. However, they didn't play him there at all in the minors in 2023, so I suspect they learned their lesson.
  7. arby58
    The assertion that the Twins have played Martin 'out of position' is odd, because they started out playing him pretty much the way other teams have played him going all the way back to college. At Vanderbilt, Martin played all over - 3B 64 games, CF 25, 1B 22, LF 15, 2B 13, C (really!) 2, SS 2. He didn't even play 2B his first year there. At Toronto's AA team,. he played SS in 27 games and CF in 26 - never at 2B. When he was traded to the Twins, the first year at Wichita, the Twins replicated his use by Toronto, playing 20 games in CF and 16 at shortstop. The next year at AA, the Twins mostly played him at SS (72) and 7 times both at 2B and CF, with 2 other games in the outfield. The following year, at various levels including AAA, the Twins gravitated to him playing 2B - 39 games, versus 12 in CF and 14 in LF. So, really, it is the Twins that have identified him at 2B, and others that moved him around more. This isn't your narrative.
  8. arby58
    The biggest weight you gave to Castellano was he was a team's minor league pitcher of the year, not Varland or SWR. Now it is Varland didn't do well in MLB - see the problem with that? Regardless of what SWR had done before last year, he did it at the MLB level. Castellano has no such foundational basis for selecting him to start games that matter in April. You build up starting pitchers' innings, especially when they are young. SWR can grow into more innings. We have absolutely no idea of what Castellano can do above AA.
  9. arby58
    Wrong - Varland was the Twins MiLB pitcher of the year. Besides, both Varland and SWR had significant AAA experience, which Castellano also does not have. https://www.milb.com/news/louie-varland-named-twins-minor-league-pitcher-of-the-year For that matter, why not put Matthews ahead of Castellano - he was the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year and also has MLB experience. Wins early in the season count - I'm not risking those on an unknown quantity when I have a known quantity.
  10. arby58
    It's spring training - none of the games count. Kick the tires on defensive alignments. Since 99 percent of the posters at TD understand this, it seems pretty self-explanatory.
  11. arby58
    It's pretty common for teams to not take (m)any regulars on spring training road trips. It's between 4 and 5 hours of accumulated time on a bus - not the way most players want to spend (non-productive) work time. So, I wouldn't read anything into the starting lineup for this game.
  12. arby58
    I'm a trained professional - so is Rocco.
  13. arby58
    Ryan isn't a retread, and he's had health issues in the last two seasons. Bailey Ober missed the second half of 2022 with a groin injury. Injuries are a fact of life in sports.
  14. arby58
    So you buy into a 'SWR [IF] leap' over the guy who actually made the leap? That makes no sense, unless you spend a lot of time in Vegas.
  15. arby58
    I don't buy putting a pitcher with no MLB (or AAA for that matter) experience in the starting rotation over SWR, who started 28 games last year and was something of a rotation-saver until he wore down late in the season. Castellano is still just a prospect, not MLB-proven, which SWR is. I do agree they should put Varland in the bullpen from day one - his (or Alcala's) stuff is far superior to Tonkin, who is a career 0.0 WAR pitcher. He's not going to get any better - and Varland and Alcala have great upside potential in the BP.
  16. arby58
    Julien had a really bad 2024, but he had a really good 2023 (839 OPS in MLB). Martin had a really bad 2024 - and not a really good 2023 (.779 OPS at three minor league levels). So why the vitriol toward Julien and not Martin?
  17. arby58
    When I have scissors and need to get them somewhere in a hurry, I run with them all the time - never injured. You just have to know what you are doing.
  18. arby58
    Bader is going to make the 26 man roster, and my guess France will with even a halfway decent spring. I don't get all the dissension on France. His OPS+ in four MLB seasons prior to last year went 133, 128, 125, 101. Yes, last year was 92, but he also tried to play through a significant injury - even then his OPS was much higher than one of his purported contestants at IB, Julien, who put up an anemic 74. I have no idea why you think Gasper is a shoo-in for the 26 man roster. This was a trade of cast-offs for both teams - my bet is he is just AAA depth.
  19. arby58
    At the end of the spring training games, everybody's record will be 0-0. If you're going to be 'playing with fire' this is the time to do it.
  20. arby58
    It's an interesting question. So, I looked at basically all the Twins regulars from last year with a significant number of at bats at both (besides the previously cited Wallner, Miranda, and Julien, I added Correa, Larnach, Buxton, Castro, Santana, Jeffers, Kepler, Lewis, Vazquez). The ONLY one who has posted higher average OPB and OPS in MLB than in the minors is Lewis. Austin Martin is no Royce Lewis.
  21. arby58
    It's rare to find a player who matches his performance in the minors in MLB. Sometimes if a player is consistently younger than average for a league, but Martin was drafted out of college, so that hasn't always been the case. Cases in point: Miranda OBP of .315 and OPS of .729 in MLB, .338 and .777 in the minors. Julien .343 and .742 in MLB and .430 and .904 in the minors. Wallner .365 and .866 MLB and .379 and .896 minors. Those weren't cherry picked, just the first three I thought of that are sort of Martin's contemporaries.
  22. arby58
    Max Kepler in 2016?
  23. arby58
    IF he could ever get/stay healthy, he could be a big addition. You look at the minor league stats, and they are eye-popping - but just 85 innings over three seasons. Still, 1.48 ERA, 130 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 0.859. He's obviously got the stuff.
  24. arby58
    His OPS in 4 years in the minors averaged .760, and OBP .397 - it's quite a stretch to suggest he is going to outperform his minor league averages in MLB.
  25. arby58
    Martin's OBP last year with the Twins was .318, which is nothing to write home about - he trailed Correa, Wallner, Larnach, Buxton, Castro, Santana, and Miranda in that category. Yes, he can steal an occasional base (7 last year) and he is faster than most other hitters, but when you combine a pedestrian OBP with a meek slugging percentage (.352) you end up with a not great OPS of .670 and an OPS+ of 89. He really needs to up his OBP because he's never hit more than 7 HRs in a season of professional baseball.
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