Crackedfungo

That is EXACTLY what they are thinking. With as many upcoming SPs they have (6) at AA that have REAL plus potential with at least one to two pitches, I think they are following a path that will enable this to happen. They realize that they must build their own SP staff, as opposed to over-paying for past performance. I am all for it. I don't think their window closes before at least 2-3 of these young SPs are ready to make a real impact. We are looking at 6-12 months after the season starts for at least 1-3 of them. I like this approach, in spite of all the complaining on this site. I don't want a Ryu or MadBum underperforming for 3 more years (after 1-2 ok ones), or to be hamstrung for 4-6 years with a Straus or Cole contract, if it comes at the expense of getting 2-3 of our own the experience they need to be Berrios type contributors in 2-3 years..

They need to move on Walker as priority #1 in this scenario ASAP. He would be my #4 to start the season and fill Pineda’s initial missed starts and then see what you have. I would give him 2years at $12-$15 (but $15 only if tied to team option for third year at $7.5MM). I would also sign Wood if we cannot trade for a pitcher that is really a fit and at reasonable prospect cost (no top two player or top two pitchers, unless exceptional return: load up a lot of 5-20, as we will need to begin to clean up our 40 man for future years soon) and see what we have with these two running 3 and 4 to start the year, and possibly move the underperformer at trade deadline (adding our prospects in a separate trade for a better pitcher, or a call-up of an overperforming youngster who isn’t already in our #5spot or in relief). I would likely look to give Wood a similar deal (maybe $1-2MM lighter, as he is from NL, and lacks the same stuff as Walker). That way, you fill a void of Pineda and non or failed trade, and are able to make room for a youngster that is on the climb with pretty cheap and controllable deals for Walker and Wood (who are still young) if they have something left to offer us in 2020 and beyond or not. I, too, believe a better trade prospect will be available at trade deadline when teams cut bait on season and rebuild. Now is not really the best time to leverage a trade when most are optimistic about new season and an overpay is necessary. You will also have a better idea as to Balazovic, Duran, and Sands progress by that point - which may change your view on the need to trade for a long-term answer at SP (I am going to assume Graterol is the #5 or #6 on Twins, as he has little to gain by dominating AAA, and I am not of the belief that Smeltzer, Dobnak, or Thorpe beats him out). it may also change the age SP you are looking for based upon team record and young pitcher progress (or lack of progress).

This is a a GREAT and fact-based post. If I had to make a list of the pitchers I would love to have under 24, Shane Bieber would be in my Top 5-10. He is a perfect example of the type of development which allowed Cleveland to let a declining Kluber leave. Look at his scouting reports from as recently as 2017, post his being a 4th rounder and having pitched in college. He was their 11th ranked prospect at age 22. Bieber: Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50 Compare this with Graterol: Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55 Balazovic: Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55 Duran: Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 Enlow: Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 Colina: Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45 Sands: Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45 Vallimont: Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40 In terms of a comparative of the Twins pitchers that are probably closest to the majors and rated in Top 30, Bieber actually has no PLUS pitches. His best score was only a 55 in control, yet he won 11 games, had a 1.33 WHIP, and a 4.55 ERA in 2018 (and an All Star year of 18 wins, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.28 ERA and 259 K's in 2019). We have MULTIPLE options that seem to have a better profile than he did, and are close to knocking on the door of the MLB club (Sands seems to be the most similar profile). This is where I think our best pitching related results are going to come from versus FA or Trades in 2020, 2021, and 2022. If they can develop 1-3 of these pitchers that are at least at AA, re-signing Berrios and one of Odo or Pineda, we aren't having this conversation about FA's every year that may only produce for a few years (if we are lucky) of a long-term deal. I think we are in a unique position here with this depth. Atlanta is also in a similar boat, though maybe 1 year ahead. High potential help is getting very close, and we simply MUST place all the organizational focus upon seeing this through. That said, I am not even mentioning Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer, a Romero recovery, etc. What I am getting at, is our window is probably open for 3-4 years and beyond until we have to cycle to the next group of position players and we need to develop our next high-end pitching wave RIGHT NOW versus sign an overly risky FA now. My guess is that 2 of these SPs will be able to win 8-10, pitch to a 1.25 WHIP, and an ERA of 4.50-4.75 this year - Bieber and others like him have done so. If this what we might get from the remaining FAs, or a lower-end trade: NO THANKS!

For every Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke FA contract that works out well in a few of the years, you have the David Price's, Yu Darvish's, John Lester's, and Mike Hampton's that might have a couple solid years (or even one good one) but are then surrounded by years of overpay, under-performance, and injury. In effect, you are paying for past performance in almost all cases. Thus, the key herein, is to be CERTAIN or LUCKY that you signed the right guy, for the right money, at the right time (when your core players peak simultaneously with no slumps or injuries), and at the right term. As far as the pitchers that were out there, Cole might be the best of the bunch, but he will never perform up to a 9 year deal at $300+, and Strauss will likely perform for the better part of his shorter deal, then drop down for 3-4 years). The Astros, Nats, and Yankees will have an Ace to fall back on if they don't work out (due to $ or existing player). Greinke had a deal with AZ that they couldn't wait to get rid of. So, for those that say you must find the Scherzer - that is a TALL order, and tens or hundreds of millions can be sunk before finding him. Even Kershaw is starting to lose luster at this point (and I know he wasn't a FA). I am not saying that you don't roll the dice, but I am saying the returns are pretty mixed to poor. At this point, I think there is little left in FA that I might bother with (don't need more retreads blocking a trial #5 spot), and I think more than 4 years for MadBum and more than 3 for Ryu is crazy given their situation and history. We will need to make a trade for an option and it won't be cheap. Pitching deep teams like Atlanta would be my targets (I like Wright or Anderson, or perhaps move Newcomb back to starter), or teams that have no window open, and a 25-27 year old that has great stuff. I think the track records with the Verlander's and others had in trade would rival or even exceed the FA signings - I would love to see a deep 20 year analysis of Trades versus FA with Ace SP, as I am going off memory only. However, none of the above changes the fact that the Twins simply must protect their highest pitching prospects in the minors, as we will need 1-3 of them to be average to above average to ace in the next 3-5 years. So, I would move some from the glut of OF and 1B/DH (certain names might be painful, but you only really need one to two of them dependent upon Buxton/Rosario situations) to get one 25-27 YO with the 'stuff' that Falvine are optimistic about (and throw in some other high prospect regulars as sweeteners that will challenge our 40 man within 1-2 years). We aren't getting an Ace to MN in FA without a tie of some sort - I simply don't believe we have the draw (someone mentioned above that $ alone does not decide things for mega multi-millionaire's with young families with no according draw/tie to the midwest). If you don't believe this, you are in DENIAL. Look across ALL sports, and you will find this to be true.......We need a Ryu for 3 years (which I still put at <25%), or a well-scouted trade, coupled with serious development focus for our top 7 minor league pitching prospects. These SPs will matter much more to our prospects for 3-5 years than any trade or FA (in my opinion).

Everyone needs to relax. We never had a chance with Wheeler, Straus, or Cole.. It was for the following reasons: move back to family/area + money met/exceeded, remain with team and continuity of family + money met/exceeded, and maximum idiotic ego boost in being highest/longest paid pitcher ever and dominant team + crazy ass duration terms and AAV for money exceeded. There was NO WAY the Twins were going to get any of these pitchers. It is not the FO or JPs fault (and I am no apologist). We are simply a mid/small market team, in a tough climate, with very little geographic and or specific draw for these FA's (unless one of these players had a wives or extended family up here and were looking at a return to quality of life - for 6 months). Moreover, I believe our taxes are still too high for living in the sticks with such a tough climate - don't underestimate this (compared to TX or alternatives that don't have some other unique draw). So, what about Bumgarner and Ryu? I am going to say that I predict <10% chance that MadBum is even interested at ANY price. As for Ryu, I would say <25%, since there isn't much that would draw him here (community related, culture, etc). Thus, only excessive $ or duration would seem to be even a potential draw for either, which is NOT a recipe for success in later years of contracts. So, we will need to trade for a prospective pitching climber using our excess OF assets (the MILB players, not MLB players unless Cave is a throw in), and we absolutely MUST get Falvey/Wes/Baldelli to develop 3 of the following pitchers ASAP, so that we go into future years (with Berrios, and Trade Asset) in a position of strength without the need to attract fickle FAs: Dobnak, Romero, Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, Colina, Sands, Vallimont, Enlow and/or Canterino. I think Thorpe and Smeltzer belong in the BP with Alcala, along with a few of the losers of the battles above. Out of these 10 varying levels of prospects, you NEED to be able to hit on 3-4. This is not unheard of, given that several are only 1-2 levels removed from MLB. No, this is not a well-coordinated plan with our current initial 'window' of players and new-found success. However, this is a NET RESULT of NOT pursuing in-house development in the last few years of SP's in a real and overt way (wasting time with the Pelfrey's and Perez's of the world). We continue to try to buy or resurrect mediocre crap and hope for a long-term miracle. It just doesn't work. So, we need to DO IT NOW, developing a pitcher for each of the next 3 years and force them into 30 starts (and cycle in alternatives as soon as we are sure that the one focused upon is not the solution). I am not saying we don't try for a FA, but I am pragmatic enough to know that you can attempt to write big checks with NO TAKERS. It is what it is....

BTW: Were we to add MadBum, my gut says that we will be fortunate to get 'Good Kyle Gibson' numbers in the regular season. I say this due to the AL effect, his away numbers from SF (pitchers park), his lessened velocity and penchant for giving up the long-ball with some short RF porches in the AL, etc. That said, I expect more 'Good MadBum' numbers in the playoffs, than 'Bad Kyle Gibson' numbers in the playoffs or 'Bad MadBum' numbers. I say this because MadBum is a big-game pitcher, and he has proven it enough to validate this for me (much more than any other current Twins pitcher, Wheeler, or any other pitcher we could reasonably consider at this point). That alone, makes the risk good enough for me at present in bringing him aboard. The only flyer I would take in 2020 would be Gaussman - for the 5 weeks that Pineda is out as our #4, not for the #5. Within that time period (and Spring Training), we should have a good idea if he can be fixed, and I expect that there might be some bumps in the road with Pineda's conditioning/stamina or other injuries that might be worth checking out Gaussman during that time (move him to RP if it isn't working out - he may be a find there where his above average stuff might play up further). In contrast to my post above, I add this option ONLY because we are in the unique situation with Pineda's early season suspension, which affords us this luxury, while cycling through the youngsters for the #5. Gaussman also shouldn't cost too much...though maybe 2-3 years will be necessary.

This is EXACTLY why you simply must leave the #5 spot (and 4 some years) open for one of the youngsters to get their opportunity to enter the rotation. This approach of continuing to load up on re-treads and reclamation projects for the #5 (keeping the young pitchers in the minors until they break down, are moved to relief, or are finally washed out) just makes NO sense. If not this year, then when? If we had done so two years ago with Romero as a FY starter, with one of Thorpe/Dobnak/Smeltzer most of last year versus Perez, and Graterol/Dobnak next year vs. TBN reclamation project, and Balazovic/Duran in 2021, we may/will have a solid answer on our internal prospects (which is what we did with Berrios). Otherwise, you have to continue to shop for free-agents or trades each year to re-build the staff when deals are up for the starters. I get that we are now a viable playoff team, but I don't think you are ever very successful in addressing the #5 with the re-tread/reclamation merry-go-round. History proves this. Thus, I say add one more veteran by FA or Trade. Then, leave the #5 open and make the young pitchers work to win it. You clearly have the numbers to find one viable option. Do the same the following year when Odo is at risk of coming off the books, and Pineda the following year. You need to build MOST of your staff in-house if you are not the Yankees or Boston - he77, even the Dodgers are a big money team and they build most of their pitching assets from within. Atlanta and St. Louis have also historically built most of their staffs from within and should be our model with a similar market and payroll most years (particularly now with our seemingly better pitching assessment and coaching acumen - and with the death of the pitch-to-contact failed philosophy of the Garden Gnome and his sidekick, Rick 'beachball's welcome' Anderson).

Larnach, Rosario, and Duran is WAY too much for Matthew Boyd. We have no reason to trade that much for a slightly above average pitcher for an everyday player (that flirts with All Star numbers), and 2 of our Top 8 prospects. Boyd will be 29, and has similar peripherals as Kyle Gibson (though is 3 years younger). Would you trade the haul proposed for Gibson - neither would I

This topic is getting a great deal of responses. The following it TRUE: 1) Rosario IS the second player in 20 years to bat over .276 and have 32HRs and 105+ RBI 2) Rosario DOES get negatively impacted with defensive stats when Buxton is in the game (it is a by-product of the system) 3) You can basically exchange Kepler's walks for more hits for Rosario - which moves base-runners beyond a base? 4) NONE of our potential replacements will replace Eddie's offensive statistics in MLB in 2020, 2021, or 2022 - as evidence of this fact - how many times have the prospects even exceeded his 2019 in their minor league career (average, HRs, XBH, RBI, RBI% with RISP)? 5) The same armchair GMs that don't want to extend him for a few more years are the same people who wanted to give away Sano as recently as this past May/June In short, it is embarrassing how many erroneous assessments we have seen from this group in 5 that do not own up to it after the fact..... 4) The same armchair GMs

That's NOT accurate. He has a plus 4 seam fastball (as high as 103), a plus two seam sinker (as high as 101), and a wipe-out slider. They are working on his change-up. This IS 3 pitches, and they are working on the 4th. Have you ever seen a 100+mph sinker? There might have been 1-2 prior, but it is clearly a 3rd pitch, as the bottom literally drops out.

Tremendous perspective in this article. I am looking for the Twins to move Graterol, and later, Balazovic quickly to MLB. Duran will depend upon whether he can master some control/command this year. Soroka is NOT the only example of really young players getting a shot and essentially skipping unnecessary time in MiLB, and saving their 'bullets' for MLB; which is what matters. If he proves he cannot handle it, there is always opportunity to send him down for some focus and clean-up. I am tired of watching the Twins wreck young pitching prospects by leaving them down on the farm until they blow up, or monkeying with them too much (Romero). It is cheaper to have 1-2 spots rely on younger pitchers, which would allow for one Top signing.

And Grossman is GROSS in the outfield. How many years did your eyes tell you that?

Eyeball test disputes many of the statistics. The statistics reward more 'safe play' than aggressive play (throwing, diving, etc). I would also add, with a player of Buxton's caliber next two either Eddie or Kep, more aggressiveness is warranted due to Buxton's ridiculous speed and angle to cover. No one seems to ever bring up that Rosario (bad ankle and all) is on of ONLY TWO twins players in 20 years to bat over .276 with 30+ (32 homers) and 100+ RBI. We need to be cognizant of these statistical contributions, his arm in the field, his bum ankle, his ability to play through pain and ignite the team, his importance in the clubhouse and in the clutch. These things ALL matter FWIW. No MLB fill-in, or Top AA prospect will deliver what Eddie can in the next 3 years.

Next point. What is the possibility that Rooker, Larnach, AK, or ? puts up those numbers (or better) in one of the next THREE years? I would put those odds at <10%. How do I know, take a look at their minor league numbers. If you correlate the length of season and at-bats, only AK has exceeded those numbers at A level two years ago - which doesn't have anywhere near the pitching of MLB. Good luck replacing Eddie's numbers, and note that he is reaching his peak, and will be healthier next year. Arm chair GMs like those this board is bursting with, are embarrassingly ill-informed.

I am going to repeat what I detailed on another thread regarding the Rosario bashing. In the last 25 years prior to this year, how many Twins had the following totals or MORE? 32 HRs 109 RBI .276+ BA One....Justin Morneau. This year, Eddie and Nelson delivered these numbers. These are numbers the homer, Mauer, NEVER achieved. Tip of the cap to Eddie, whom also nursed multiple injuries, but played on....which is what you want

This comment from your article was idiotic: "and even his “good” production in game three came through pitches he had no business generating positive results off." What the he77 does that even mean? Who has any business getting away with a pitch in the dirt, a grooved fastball, a snow cone catch, a batted ball off the rubber or a base, or a blooper over the shift? Sometimes results come from just being capable. Sorry, your article has many assumptions (that any touted minor league player can replace Eddie's production, clubhouse influence, etc), that Eddie is expendable and can create an equitable asset in a trade. Moreover, how many .278 hitters with 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs have we had in the past 25 years (before this year)? That's right, one. Justin Morneau. This year, he is joined by only Cruz. That makes 3 in 25 years. Yep, really expendable. What do you expect to get for him in terms of SP, and what will be the impact on the OF and in the clubhouse?

My gut says they will try to get either Cole or Strasburg. Doesn't mean they will, but I think they will make a high offer. Just don't know if the Twins are a draw yet. Ineptitude in playoffs didn't help, though record was attractive. Will need to overpay.

What still shocks me, is that they didn't play Kepler before the playoffs, they rolled the dice on Arraez ankle, they completely out-smarted themselves by saving their second best starter and 2 of 3 best relievers for elimination game. They also have had opportunities to pull pitchers before the 'wheels flew off', and waited one batter too long (Gibson, Duffey, Stashak). We should be disappointed with our hitters swinging at **** pitches on 3rd strike from Pax and Tanaka - Pax's bounced in front of the plate, but plate discipline has never been a strength (we should have scouted better and given all our K-victims take signals). Our ridiculous number of walks is mind-boggling against a team of free-swingers (which the Yankees are), and shows a gutless approach to challenging hitters. That is the game in a nutshell.

Ignore the mess in the middle. Merged two different line-ups somehow. This is NOT what I want, but what I think will happen: If #1/2 Acquired Free Agent 1 Berrios Pineda (or Smeltzer) Dobnak Smeltzer or if no Pineda, Thorpe/Graterol (loser to RP) If Middle of Road Adds Berrios Free Agent 2 (Odo, or lesser or cheaper version of 2020 Odo) Free Agent 3 (Pineda, Cheap Young High Potential, or Reclamation Project) Dobnak Smeltzer/Thorpe/Graterol They need to really find out if Romero is RP immediately, or send him back to SP before they completely devalue him. They need to find a space for or clear out Gonsalves, Stashak, Wells, Barnes, Reed, etc., thus making room for Ober, Colina, Balazovic, Doan, Vallimont, Sands, etc.

Graterol will NOT be in the bullpen next year - he is your best current internal shot for a #1. No dice on Romine, and Abreu is interesting, but too expensive and blocking 1B (which we will need for one of (Rooker, AK, Sano alternative position). As far as free-agent pitchers, you will only see two outside 'middle of the road' SP like Odo, or one attempt at a #1/2 - there will be no second other than a Pineda. In either case, they will make an offer to Pineda (as he is not in a position of strength). They will leave 1-2 spots open for their young pitchers, and I want Graterol to get 1 spot (even in a split with loser of Thorpe or Smeltzer). See below: If #1/2 If Middle of the Road Free Agent 1 Berrios Berrios Free Agent 2 (lesser priced Odo) Pineda/Dobnak? Free Agent 3 (lesser than Odo, reclamation project or Pineda) Dobnak Dobnak Smeltzer/Thorpe/Graterol By Year End, I would like to see Balazovic and Doan brought up for some SP innings. I would like to see if there is anything left of Gonsalves (or move on), and I want Alcala added to RP. As far as bullpen, they need to add 1 Free Agent. They need to really find

Three of the Twins best pitchers (which isn't saying much), have not pitched yet and we are down 0-2 with a must-win game or season is over. These would be; Odo, Rogers, and May. It doesn't matter the circumstances (see Scherzer and Nats), with limited pitching you simply must find a way to leverage your best. It has NOTHING to do with convention. That only matters if you have a bullet-proof and complete staff. I am at a loss......I also would have pitched Graterol again over Stashak and Littel, but that's just me.

Graterol is theonerooliethat I might have used earlier. His stuff is in a different league than all our other rookies, and it shows (though lower leverage situation). He will be a #1 if his arm holds up and his secondary stuff continues to improve.

My son and I (he never suffered through the Gardenhose years) couldn’t believe they left Gibson in post third walk and then post 2nd out. He doesn’t have it. You got three walks and two outs from him. Now we are getting smoked and demoralized with two of our best pitchers still in the bullpen with little reason to come in now. Bad decision. We got outplayed AND out coached in this game.

just trying to be positive - rare for ,e.

You cannot flush any games in the playoffs, let alone a best of five. Not liking our pitching decisions. But, the walks and HBPs are inexcusable. With all the HRs yankee can hit, it could be worse now. Conversely, if we could time our HRs with someone on base, score is tied or down 1