So, score tied, home team batting in the bottom of the 9th or later, runner on second, 0 out. Anyone know how to find the statistic of how frequently an IBB is issued? I would guess far less than 50%.
There is much to consider beyond just setting up force plays. Who is following in the lineup or available to pinch hit? Does the pitcher have good control? Is the pitcher skilled at inducing ground balls? Which fielders are playing? And more. Also consider that if the lead runner makes an out there is a runner on base that wouldn't have been there otherwise.
With runners on second and third those issues are amplified, plus an IBB brings into play that a subsequent BB, HBP, or catcher's interference loses the game.
When Joe Maddon was managing TB he once ordered a bases-loaded IBB. Not in this situation, obviously, but his team wound up winning that game.