bunsen82

8-13 1st Abel start. The second inning was rough. Lots of Clay to work with.

You do an article about make or break players and pick 3 players that aren’t make or break. This year was Rodens first taste of MLB, he will get another year to show if he can adjust. SWR has been a very solid pitcher for the Twins. He is an excellent back end starter/depth starter that can come in and give you above average results. The kid just keeps trying to improve his stuff. Lewis still gets at minimum another year. Gasper Martin Julien should have been the ones you picked.

Twins win. Lewis grand slam was the difference maker.

In either case my guess is he goes back up as a top 10 prospect again. he drops because he isn't healthy then performs in the second half and goes back up. Tait, Winokur, Jenkins and Jimenez all with great days. Pretty impressive for 4 of your highest ceiling players to have great days. Meh for the rest other than Pablo giving it a go. I really want to see the pitching performances improve. Maybe we have to wait til next year for the reinforcements from the draft class. We have a ton of talented prospects that will be going to A and/or A+ ball.

The answer why they are playing is pretty clear. See if 1 flashes and 2ndly getting better draft position.

They are resetting the salary ceiling by trading Correa. They traded the bullpen to add significant value to the system and tank and improve our draft slot. After that they rebuild the roster to give the fans something to cheer for. I expect some salary to be respect. I don’t see us having a bottom 4 or 5 payroll.

Lot of pessimistic views. Lets 1st discuss Ryan and Lopez. I would say its close to a non zero chance the Twins trade both. You need at least 1 veteran in your starter position to lead the pitching staff. Due to Ober having struggling stuff and health I think he is not considered for the role. Of the 2 players I think the most likely player kept is Lopez. Yes his salary is high, but we have shed so much salary its not a big deal. His value is the lowest. Meaning he will bring back the least amount. 2. Is he is an extremely professional individual. He has been a tough situation like this with the Marlins. I think the odds are increasing they trade neither. Say what you will I think the Twins wanted to tank for the fall, and the decisions on players that they have played continues to reaffirm this opinion. Unless they get a massive offer for Ryan - which with 2027 and possible work stoppage I don't think they just trade and give him away. Ryan's value is likely going to be 2 1/2 times what Duran was. The sheer amount of value will be difficult to equal out, without a massive amount of prospects. I just don't think we will be able to match up with what Falvey wants. Also a surprise, I think Falvey thinks he can put a competitive team on the field for next year. So claim number 1 touted so far is this team can't hit. I would argue this team as currently constructed can't hit consistently and we don't play small ball well enough. We still seem to be in the bombas mentality although that is beginning to change. Keashall and an improving Lee are 2 young players to build around. You add in Buxton and Jeffers and that is a decent core to build around. I think a lot will depend on the Twins plans for Culpepper. If they do plan to have Culpepper move up soon Lee either becomes the utility infielder, or you trade Lewis. Lewis is such an enigma. I have no idea what you could get for him. If you did trade him you slide Lee to 3rd and suddenly you have 5 quality hitters. At this point I think Larnach gets traded and Wallner stays. Does a Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Fedko/Roden Take 1 or 2 spots. I would venture even with the lack of time, Rodriguez and Roden get the first nods. Fedko assuming he is still well is the immediate back up and then you continue to season Gonzalez and monitor Jenkins progress. That leave 1st base and DH and the bench. We seem to have ample bench players. I wouldn't be surprised if we spend 2-5 million on another 1st base project. If Culpepper is legit, Keaschall continues to hit and Lee continues to improve - or you have 3 solid you hitters to build around Jeffers and Buxton - You can have a solid lineup. You find 5 young hitters and we are talking. At that point we are no longer talking about the Twins not developing hitters. As to the bullpen. I think most here will say Sands and Topa can fill the 4 and 5 spots in the bullpen. Hatch, Cabrera and Funderburk can fill the back end. 1 of those players won't be in the Twins plans and then you can fill it with 1 of the Twins failed starters. My #1 option assuming health is Canterino. After that you have Raya, Morris, Adams, Ohl. I think the Twins trade for 1 reliever, and then they sign 2 other relievers. 1 higher end reliever they intend to keep for the year or flip for prospects, and another reliever they think they can get elevated performance out of. So if we trade for 1 good to great reliever, spend $15 million or slightly more on relievers (which is less than we were going to spend this year) and supplement with the rest of the players that is a really solid start. If things come together you have the ability to trade at the dealine for another reliever. So this is how you could rebuild the Twins bullpen in 1 year. It will be lots of moving parts for a year or two but then gradually we will find a couple really solid bullpen arms that we have developed.

7-12. I am posting early. Urena helped the A's sweep us. A's now above the Twins in the win column. Braves need a win to pass the Twins as they are currently tied with the 3rd highest odds 15.34% of the first pick. Logistically the 2 spot is the highest the Twins could get. As of now the Twins have 4 more wins than the Pirates. The second spot has odds of 20.32%. Maybe it gets a little crazy if the White Sox sweep us in 7 games, I just don't see that happening.

We have at minimum 4 solid players for next years regular day lineup. Buxton, Keaschall, Lee, and Jeffers. I am ready to give up on Lewis and move Lee there permanently when they bring up Culpepper. LF and RF - I don't know what the plans are. I would assume one or both of Wallner and Larnach are gone. Wallner has the potential to be really good. You need 4-5 really good hitters and then fill in around them. Adding Culpepper should had another quality at bat/hitting skill to the lineup and would be a major upgrade over the version of Lewis we are getting. I have stated I thought Clemens was solidifying his hold on 1st base, but he has faded here in August. The biggest thing so far is Keaschall looks like he belongs and Lee is starting to breakout. As to SP - we are loaded. Ryan and Lopez are an excellent 1 -2 punch. You have so many options to fill the 3-5 spots. I think we have 4-5 usable relievers then the front office will have to do quite a bit of work trying to supplement this group in the offseason. They generally don't spend money on the bullpen so I am curious to see how they plan on revamping this group. You say its not much, but if the goal is continued success with high level players who give you the chance at a WS - its better than the losing we were doing with a group that shoulda/woulda/coulda got to the playoffs and world series.

Lee is showing massive improvement on getting walks. He now has 7 walks this month. You have Lee now getting more walks not chasing as many pitches, and now punishing strikes. This is the version of Brooks Lee we want. Maybe all the critical articles were a good thing. Secondly he is playing at home so based on his splits I am not surprised he has done so well on this homestand. Even still, incremental improvements.

I will agree, Brooks Lee has had 2 very bad months of poor performance. The other is the fact he does so much better at home games than away. Target Field is considered neutral yet Lee is hitting (baseball reference doesn't have the last 3 games) .256/.301/.412. His last 30 day splits is .270/.312/.392. I said earlier Lee needs to shoot for .270/.340/.400. In retrospect I think he needs to have the OBP about .320. But those home splits and last 30 days splits are beyond excellent. Even his 2024 home splits were excellent .287/.337/.391. He almost treats Target field as Coors field. What does it tell me, it tells me Brooks Lee does much better when he feels comfortable and is in a familiar pattern. Brooks for whatever reason seems to do better when playing 3rd base or shortstop. Also playing at home. He played a majority of the games in the minors at that 2 positions. He feels comfortable playing defensively there so then can put more attention and focus into hitting. He continues to improve. Moving forward, we need to see him continue to perform on road trips. he needs to improve his consistency. Month to month and beginning performing better on the road.

We had Lee playing 3 defensive positions and switch hitting. It definitely seemed to overwhelm him a bit. In July you could just tell he had lost confidence at the plate. I’ve seen steady improvement at being more selective. The real question is the power real. The oppo home run from the right side was impressive. Anyone can pull a home run, you start punishing outside plate pitches to the opposite field and it’s a game changer. Being a coaches son and his overall approach we know he will continue to put in the work to get better. There are 3 differences between Miranda and Lee. Lee plays better defense, Lee has been healthier, and his mental fortitude is better. The defense and health has allowed Lee to continue to get at bats and continue to get better. The mental aspect has helped him come back even after rough May and July.

Lee was the best player on the field, so Rocco took him out. Twins lose. Pit, Ari, Atlanta, A’s, Miami all won. Currently 5th best odds, on the verge of the 3rd best odds.

Say what you will, he has a +.5 WAR since the trade deadline (-.7, now at -.2). All he needs to do is continue to provide solid defense which he is, continue to walk more which he has been doing and then taking advantage of the mistakes. The increased power is drastically changing his profile. A .260/.340/.400 shortstop with good to adequate defense that can also become a utility player is a very valuable commodity. Lee continues to evolve, there is no reason to not to continue to let him develop.

So honest question - it seems like most of the prospects even the lower level ones are having great numbers and stats this year. When you see the scores though it seems like the other teams are putting up just as many hits as us. Are the overall numbers up in the minors? Our the prospects doing as well as we think they are. Fedko would be really nice if he were a decent piece to use. Give another chance at finding a really good outfield.

Twins lost to the A’s. Some questionable calls, an error and timely hits made this one of Ryan’s toughest outings. 2 ER. Lee hit another home run and solid defense. Wallner with a timely rbi hit and a Jeffers home run. A’s, Braves, and Baltimore all with wins. Twins at 5th best odds.

He continues to get better. I am so glad we didn’t trade him.

Jenkins still has a lot more power potential than Lee ever did. As a 20 year old (6'3 215) he is hitting a home run on average every 28 at bats. Lee in 2023 at 22 years old (6'1 205lb) hit one every 32 at bats. Yes there is some risk with Jenkins, but he is still the best athlete with a bigger build and good hit tool. My biggest concern with Jenkins is the injuries. So then to my #2 - It has to be Keaschall as of now - maybe he is the #1 but as of now Jenkins and Keaschall are the top of the board. After that you could legitimately say 5 other prospects could legitimately be the #2 prospect. Personally for me its Abel. I know its small data, but he has been lights out at AAA. Even in a small sample who is the last prospect that has pitched this well. You have strike out ability, you have above average to great stuff. The biggest thing to work on is control and that appears to be improving. You add a solid slider, and you have a solid #2 pitcher. I have been high on him since the trade. Yes 2024 wasn't good, he was pushed too fast, but he made massive improvements coming into 2025. Its still a work in progress but he has dominated AAA. Just look at Bradley - another with pretty good stuff, even though it isn't showing as much this year. For us 7 era and 1.6 whip. I am willing to give it a pass as I believe he is probably trying to work on things. He was the bigger project of the 2 pitchers. I think there is quite a bit of things to work on in the offseason. So nuts and bolts, Abel gets my pick because he has been dominant at AAA with expectations he can begin to translate that to the MLB level. The other is being the only pitcher of the 5 prospects in question he gets a little bit of a boost. The player with the highest ceiling is Tait. You have a potential masher as a catcher. Those just don't grow on tree. He is definitely one I am going to be watching.

The other is not to base too much on small sample size. He had 50 At Bats. What those at bats did show was that his batting approach was advanced for the level which is expected, but doesn't always happen. This is a good 1st hurdle to clear. We will see what he looks like at high A and see if the strike out rate continues to be something we should be concerned about or not.

Look at Houston back in the 2010's 11 - George Springer (40 War at age 35) 1 - Carlos Correa (45 War at age 30) 1 - Mark Appel (bust) 1 - Brady Aiken (bust) 2 - Alex Bregman (43 WAR at age 31) 5 - Kyle Tucker (27 War at age 28) Yes Baseball is a crapshoot. But what Houston did in the 2000's and what Baltimore did and is trying to do is trying to game the system and increase the odds of hitting on a great pick. Either picking multiple times early - or trying to acquire as many 1st round picks as they can. Baltimore got the 30 and 31 picks for losing Burnes and Santander and acquired pick 37 with the Rays. This year the had 4 picks between 19 and 37. Yes the odds aren't great, but you drastically increase your odds when you are picking 4 top 30 players. I think you could see more trades of the competitive balance picks in the future. When there is a draft that is expected to be very good, increasing your odds is a good strategy. Just look at the 2023 draft as of now all top 6 picks are either high prospects rankings or doing very well in MLB. Wyatt Langford (7 War), Paul Skenes 12 WAR, Jacob Wilson 2 WAR this year. Pick 7 was Lowder (63 best prospect). That is 7 picks that look like high MLB caliber players. This upcoming draft is being compared to that 2023 draft. I do think it will lack on the high end talent. I do agree with you, I don't want to see the team trying to lose, so far they are playing competitive baseball. As the teams is constructed I don't expect better than .500 ball, but the hitters have shown they can be competitive and the bullpen has held up much better than anticipated.

We are also starting to get to the point where we might start trading the SS prospects for other needs on the team. The High School prospects will solidify a bit more. The other aspect is as much as the 2026 draft has some high end talent, the depth also is supposed to be very good. If the Twins feel stacked at SS with elite prospects then an underslot pick may be a good option and they can get a different possition and then get higher ranked players in the 2nd, supplement, 3rd and 4th rounds. In general I prefer to go with the best prospect.

If the Twins get hot they could fall all the way to the 12th pick or later, or could end up with the 3rd best odds. You have 11 teams lumped in a 5 win spread so there can be quite a bit of movement the remainder of the season. The 7 games against the White Sox will be likely the most impactful as on the surface they are the most winnable games. Do the Twins win a majority of the games against the White Sox?

How do you propose we get there right now? Spend a lot of money? There is only one way the Twins are going to be good, and it’s going to primarily be from prospects. Keaschall is looking pretty good so far.n

I would argue all those players were not considered great hit tool players and all tried to prioritize home runs too much. It’s failed philosophy from 2019 drafting. The really started prioritizing hit tool starting in 2022.

Fair enough. Then you agree if we are operating as a small market team the primary way to succeed then is to have a superior prospect line that creates more opportunities at finding elite players? We can’t win spending more money so we have to be opportunistic with the draft, it’s why tanking in a really good draft year is probably smart. It doesn’t feel good, and some people don’t want to acknowledge it, but it’s clearly a tactic The Twins are utilizing to strengthen its prospect pool.