bean5302

Options are based on the 40 man roster, not the 26 man roster. If a player is on the 40 man roster and they're assigned to the minors for more than 20 days, they burn an option. It's possible for a player to run out of options without stepping onto an MLB field once in their career. Emmanuel Rodriguez, for instance, burned an option last year. He only has 2 remaining. Moran wasn't on the Twins' 40 man roster so he was eligible for the MLB Rule 5 draft. Since he was on a MiLB contract with the Twins, he transferred to Boston as a MiLB contract without needing to be added to the Red Sox's 40 man roster. That means Moran will be making like $50k in AAA. Moran has 1 option remaining, and unless he's added to the 40 man roster by the Red Sox, the option will not be burned. Gasper was on Boston's 40 man so he's been transferred to the Twins' 40 man, but that only entitles him to like $85k a year in AAA. Gasper was added to the 40 man roster for the first time in his career on 8/12. At that point, he had 3 options. He still has 3 options remaining because the Red Sox only optioned Gasper to AAA for 14 days (9/7-9/21) after he was added to the 40 man and 20 days is the minimum to burn an option. I'd consider him highest on the depth chart behind Jeffers and Vazquez at this point, but the fact his bat has played so well means there might be the potential he could fill other gaps on the roster. Both players will make league minimum if they're called up. 2018 draft pick Chris Williams officially parted ways with the Twins' organization by signing a MiLB deal with the Mets on 12/20. I don't think it's a coincidence the Twins made a move to acquire MiLB catching depth. I don't think this move had much to do with Vazquez.

a21 - A+, 71 PA, .210/.310/.306, OPS .616, ISO .097, 11.3% BB, 18.3% K, wRC+ 84 The Twins are giving him the Austin Martin treatment trying to get him to play SS despite not necessarily having the skills to handle the position. Right now, it's all about whether or not you believe he can start hitting or get faster.

Gasper was drafted in like the 28th round in 2018 as a senior out of college already at age 22, and the Yankees started him off in Rookie Ball. Gasper's first experience at AAA at age 27 wasn't smooth, but it was SSS. 2018 - a22, Drafted, Rookie Ball 2019 - a23, Mostly A ball, promoted to A+ late 2020 - a24, Lost season 2021 - a25, Thumb injury, lost a ton of time, was already playing with 2-5 days between games. 2022 - a26, AA, moved off catcher to 1B in May, sporadic playing time still. 2023 - a27, Mostly AA, promoted to AAA late. Played a mix of C/1B early, moved off catcher in July. 2024 - a28, MiLB Rule 5 pick by BOS, they used him as MiLB depth shifting him back down to AA. They used him as utility 1B/C, promoting him to AAA in June, then MLB in August for a few games, optioning him back down to AAA, before calling him up to end the season. He is clearly viewed as MiLB roster filler by NYY and BOS, though his performance at the plate has actually been very good to excellent at virtually every stop. It's a bit odd, and it feels like he might have been unfairly written off due to age. There's the potential he could just need some playing time. It's a fair exchange of guys who might have a better opportunity to actually get some MLB playing time with a change of scenery, but I suspect the Twins are just filling the AAA roster spot which was occupied by Chris Williams now that Williams is in the Mets' system.

Kepler got 1 yr and $10MM. He's been a solid starter over his career, but he wasn't close to worth a QO. The Twins were expected to make the playoffs so trading Kepler mid season wouldn't have made sense. The problem with Kepler is he wasn't traded in the 2023-2024 offseason, but Falvey doesn't seem to have any sense or urgency so it seems like he's holding the short end of the stick on tradable assets in January/February. While the writer's opinions of other players is they weren't as good as Kepler, the fact remains Carlos Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Kenta Maeda all received bigger contracts than Kepler; the market spoke to those player's relative value, and Kepler was not as good as them. If we're going to ignore Minnesota's position and Kepler's poor production, then we'd have to ignore those other player's problems.

Larnach has hit at his ceiling IMHO. Counting on him to take another step forward at the plate, let alone repeat his 2024 feels like asking for disappointment to me. I think Larnach's 2nd half probably represents who he is as a hitter now (against righties only since he was so aggressively platooned). His performance last year in and of itself is pretty remarkable given his history of being a league average bat. Larnach's xwOBA looked about like his overall 2024 production level. Lewis' health and mental state will be key next year. Obviously, he was not at all happy with management or even some other players to end the season. Lewis really needs to avoid another leg injury this coming year as repeated lower body injuries undoubtedly robbed him of a lot of his power and production. If that happens, I expect he'll rebound nicely. Miranda is more of a guy I think the Twins need to step up next year. I'm not sure why the Twins struggle so mightily with health issues, but when Miranda's been healthy, he seems like a solid wRC+ 115 guy. Carrying that through the year would be a big boost.

Chicago is not going to be a better team. If anything, they'll be worse, but they might scrape out a better record just on luck. Maybe you meant Cleveland or Detroit or Kansas City, all of whom may/wil be better.

Improve vs. tread water or trade a slight drop in production and $20MM of payroll capacity to use to improve elsewhere? Correa's a very good player, but the idea the Twins season is guaranteed to be all over if they trade him isn't realistic, and I don't understand why people are so psychologically attached to him (or other Twins players).

Which "bad" free agents are getting $10-15MM? Urshela got $2MM. Estrada got $3MM. Gallo will get a MiLB contract or something similar. Willy Adames got $21MM next year or $15MM in savings vs. Correa. Correa can be replaced. He's like the 7th or 8th best shortstop in MLB.

The Twins moved Jeremy Lee to spot starting before the end of the year so it doesn't feel like he's high on the team's radar. Lee pitched to a 7.13 ERA / 5.07 FIP in the 2nd half of A+ ball with a 16% K and 10% BB rate while giving up a ton of hits despite not having a ridiculous BABIP against. Honestly, there's nothing to suggest he's on a successful path right now. Ignoring his bad games to try and get to some more respectable numbers means his lucky games get highlighted as legitimate.

Baldelli will absolutely platoon him. He'd platoon Babe Ruth.

The Twins clear $36MM of payroll space with a trade. That means they can fill holes in other locations. Correa is not an MVP caliber player so it's not like he's irreplaceable or something. Correa should be expected to be a 4-5 WAR player over a full season. About half the value you'd expect from an MVP candidate. There's also a fair chance Royce Lewis could outperform Correa's ceiling at SS. Ha-seong Kim appears to be biding his time, MLBTR and Bleacher Reports have him at 1 year and $12-14MM. It's so wild to me how players get evaluated these days. Anyway, sign Kim and save a ton while filling a need. Aside from that, the only team I'd think who might be interested in a trade for Correa would be the Nationals, and that should tell you plenty about how valuable Correa really is.

2022 Twins' top starting pitching prospects being developed and all of them were pretty much can't miss guys in prospect reports. 1. Jordan Balazovic (org 5) 2. Jhoan Duran (org 6) 3. Josh Winder (org 7) 4. Simeon Woods Richardson (org 8) 5. Matt Canterino (org 9) Total starting pitcher fWAR generated in the 2 years following the 2022 status? 1.8.

LOL, Joey Gallo. It's always surprising when I see people advocate for him. He's still semi-popular despite not being a quality baseball player.

Benintendi was terrible in 2023 as well, even if we were ignoring him being a left handed hitting outfielder rather than a first baseman. Even looking at Benintendi's career numbers, he's just a tick over average as an MLB batter. Furthermore, he's not a free agent. He's under contract with the White Sox until 2028.

Meh. The only one listed who I would bet on being significantly better than Jose Miranda is Pete Alonso, and I wouldn't be interested in meeting Alonso's asking price regardless of the team budget.

Pierzynski -> Liriano -> Escobar -> Duran, who could yet be traded for more stuff. The trade trees can go on forever, haha.

I get exactly where you're headed with the concern. The Twins' depth at position player is ugly right now.

They don't have to buy him or take on the risk of buying him. They can trade him now; today. Unless you're suggesting the Twins can sign Ryan to a long term deal to an amount so far under market value that Ryan's trade value will increase? I suppose it's possible, but it's a pretty high bar to clear. Right now, BaseballTradeValues has Joe Ryan at +53.5 surplus trade value. An AFV of 72.5, which is a 3 WAR season expectation. Salary is projected at $19MM over the next 3 years, so probably like $4MM, $6MM, $9MM, but of course, whatever team trades for him also still have a team option for 1 year and $22MM-ish coming as a QO or a Comp A pick which will be the expected return if he turns it down. Okay, so what would the market like to see as a contract with Ryan in terms of length? 5yrs? More than that I think it would be viewed as a negative. So 5 years. How much does it cost to buy Ryan out of 2 free agency year? Ignoring the copy/paste Bailey Ober article content for poor comps, I'll take a look at Spotrac which figures Joe Ryan is worth 5yrs $91MM today in free agency. Probably fair-ish. 5yrs $66MM probably gets it done, IMHO. The Twins pay a little extra through arb years for Ryan to accept losing out on ever getting a big free agent contract. $5MM, $10MM, $15MM, $18MM, $18MM. Ryan will be entering his age 34 season. Value wise, surplus is probably essentially the same or maybe a little lower after the extension than it is right now. I'd expect AFV to be like 100-125 over that 5 year period so his surplus would be like +34ish to +59ish. Doesn't really move the needle, but it adds risk to the Twins if Ryan's shoulder blows out or something. It's unlikely Joe Ryan or any other established, quality, arb eligible player who will hit free agency in their 30s is going to sell their free agent years at a big special discount just to help the team increase trade value.

I'm okay with Martin and/or Helman as "utility guys" who play once a week while Lee and Julien prove their mettle in AAA. Unfortunately, Baldelli will deploy/platoon any RHB as regular starters whenever the opponent stands a lefty up in the bullpen or a left starter is on the mound.

Compare any of the other big 3 sports to MLB in terms of turnover when it comes to teams making or advancing in the playoffs. I've done this in the past, and none of the sports were as competitive as baseball, especially considering the playoffs hadn't been expanded as far as they are now. It does feel like the Dodgers are breaking the game a bit at this point, but otherwise, plenty of turnover still.

Brooks Lee didn't struggle against breaking pitches or off speed stuff. Brooks Lee couldn't hit fastballs, and I mean really couldn't hit fastballs with a -5 runs vs. average MLB hitters against 4 seamers and even -3 runs against sinkers in those limited plate appearances between injuries. That's a huge problem as pitchers are going to eat him up if Lee can't improve his swing speed and catch up to MLB velocities. It really does seem like a swing speed/decision timing issue as Lee enjoyed solid performance against the slower traveling offspeeds like changeups and curves. With a mediocre power tool and no athleticism (slow runner, weak arm, slow swing), Lee has plenty of work to do, and that's why I'd really like to see him get plenty of action at AAA before coming back up again unless it really looks like it was just fallout from his back and shoulder issues. Polish can take you a long ways in the minors, and I'm concerned that's what carried Brooks Lee until his physical tools were exposed at the MLB level. I think a lot of people, including me, sometimes overlook just how insanely hard it is to be successful at the MLB level. Royce Lewis needs some health working his way for a change. The back to back ACLs, plus the severe quad strain and then the hip adductor destroyed his explosiveness, and that lower body is critical to swing speed and power. Considering how Lewis has talked, rehabbed and invested in his physical fitness, I'm hoping his lower body can rebound. He's shown he can be an elite hitter, crushing even well placed pitches, regardless of the pitch type. I'm no longer expecting Lewis will be healthy, but I'm still hoping for it. When it comes to Julien, he's going to need to back off the plate a little so he can get at those pitches further inside, IMHO. The sacrifice is going to be his ability to effectively hit stuff outside, but he needs to change it up and adjust or he's cooked.

Yeah, baseball owners pushed hard to keep Cuban out over the past 15 years, but the landscape of baseball has changed a lot. If the Ishbia's start making some progress on their attempt, part of me now wonders if Cuban would come back around since he's (was at least) a huge baseball fan. Possibly unfortunate that he's pursued the Cubs previously so Cuban might be more in on the White Sox. I don't like the idea of a competent owner being in charge of the south siders.

When it comes to Eloy Jimenez, I didn't see the improved batted ball metrics on Fangraphs, anyway. 15.3% Line Drive (lowest/worst of his career) 56.1% Ground Ball (highest/worst of his career) 28.6% Fly Ball (lowest/worst of his career) 13.7% Pop Up (2nd highest/worst of his career) 7.8% Barrel (worst of his career) Jimenez is a ground ball machine... which would be a real asset if he were a pitcher. He needs to rework his swing pretty badly to get the ball up a little more to generate line drives and fly balls with his 60 grade power. He's looking too much like Tim Anderson's decline at the plate for me to sign him to an MLB contract, but I agree with other people that I'd take Jimenez on a MiLB contract as I think he's better insurance than Yunior Severino, anyway.

I think I'd play Severino wherever there's an injury replacement need. He's MiLB roster filler. Eeles and McCusker are pretty interesting guys since they've more than held their own out of Indy ball.

Seems like he beat estimates by a tick. Should be interesting to see how he does in Philadelphia. If Kep can find a way to regain a step, he should be pretty good for them, and maybe secure himself a decent 2-3 year contract to end things out.