bean5302

They're projected to have the 17th highest payroll in MLB right now with the highest payroll in the AL Central. They signed off on 5 big contracts over the past few years (Donaldson, Buxton, Correa 1, Correa 2, Lopez). They were willing to blow their budget up in 2022 to sign and 2023 to bring back Correa.

Lewis didn't take kindly to public comments by Correa towards the end of last year about some players not working hard enough. Lewis was also outwardly critical of being pushed to play 2B by Baldelli. It paints the picture of a very disgruntled ballplayer, but honestly, I think Lewis was spot on.

There are absolutely NDA's for the Twins AND the Ishbias and any other bidding party. The Ishbia family does not want any other prospective buyer knowing exactly what the Ishbia offer looks like.

The valuation for the Twins by Forbes was 1.46 billion. The asking price from the Pohlad's was 1.7 billion. Here's a lesson in economics and finances. Year Inflation Twins S&P 500 S&P 500 Apple Computer 3.04% 8.99% 9.16% 11.62% 20.60% no divs reinvest div 1984 44,000,000 44,000,000 44,000,000 44,000,000 44,000,000 1985 45,337,600 47,955,600 48,030,400 49,112,800 53,064,000 1986 46,715,863 52,266,808 52,429,985 54,819,707 63,995,184 1987 48,136,025 56,965,595 57,232,571 61,189,757 77,178,192 1988 49,599,360 62,086,801 62,475,075 68,300,007 93,076,899 1989 51,107,181 67,668,405 68,197,792 76,236,468 112,250,741 1990 52,660,839 73,751,795 74,444,709 85,095,146 135,374,393 1991 54,261,729 80,382,081 81,263,845 94,983,201 163,261,518 1992 55,911,285 87,608,430 88,707,613 106,020,250 196,893,391 1993 57,610,988 95,484,428 96,833,230 118,339,802 237,453,430 1994 59,362,363 104,068,478 105,703,154 132,090,888 286,368,836 1995 61,166,978 113,424,234 115,385,563 147,439,849 345,360,816 1996 63,026,454 123,621,073 125,954,881 164,572,359 416,505,145 1997 64,942,459 134,734,607 137,492,348 183,695,667 502,305,204 1998 66,916,709 146,847,248 150,086,647 205,041,104 605,780,077 1999 68,950,977 160,048,816 163,834,584 228,866,880 730,570,772 2000 71,047,087 174,437,204 178,841,831 255,461,211 881,068,351 2001 73,206,919 190,119,109 195,223,743 285,145,804 1,062,568,432 2002 75,432,409 207,210,817 213,106,238 318,279,747 1,281,457,529 2003 77,725,554 225,839,069 232,626,769 355,263,853 1,545,437,780 2004 80,088,411 246,142,002 253,935,381 396,545,513 1,863,797,962 2005 82,523,099 268,270,168 277,195,862 442,624,102 2,247,740,342 2006 85,031,801 292,387,656 302,587,003 494,057,022 2,710,774,853 2007 87,616,768 318,673,306 330,303,973 551,466,448 3,269,194,473 2008 90,280,317 347,322,036 360,559,817 615,546,849 3,942,648,534 2009 93,024,839 378,546,287 393,587,096 687,073,393 4,754,834,132 2010 95,852,794 412,577,599 429,639,674 766,911,322 5,734,329,963 2011 98,766,719 449,668,325 468,994,668 856,026,417 6,915,601,936 2012 101,769,227 490,093,507 511,954,580 955,496,687 8,340,215,935 2013 104,863,012 534,152,913 558,849,619 1,066,525,402 10,058,300,417 2014 108,050,847 582,173,260 610,040,244 1,190,455,654 12,130,310,303 2015 111,335,593 634,510,636 665,919,931 1,328,786,601 14,629,154,226 2016 114,720,195 691,553,142 726,918,196 1,483,191,604 17,642,759,996 2017 118,207,689 753,723,770 793,503,903 1,655,538,468 21,277,168,555 2018 121,801,203 821,483,537 866,188,861 1,847,912,038 25,660,265,277 2019 125,503,959 895,334,907 945,531,760 2,062,639,417 30,946,279,925 2020 129,319,280 975,825,515 1,032,142,470 2,302,318,117 37,321,213,589 2021 133,250,586 1,063,552,229 1,126,686,720 2,569,847,482 45,009,383,588 2022 137,301,404 1,159,165,574 1,229,891,224 2,868,463,760 54,281,316,608 2023 141,475,366 1,263,374,559 1,342,549,260 3,201,779,249 65,463,267,829 2024 145,776,217 1,376,951,932 1,465,526,772 3,573,825,997 78,948,701,002 2025 150,207,814 1,500,739,911 1,599,769,024 3,989,104,578 95,212,133,408 If Carl Pohlad had invested $44MM in Apple Computer, it'd be worth 63x more than the Twins right now. If he put it into an S&P500 (Stock Index) portfolio and reinvested the dividends, it'd be worth $4 billion. The Pohlad family does not negotiate contracts on the Minnesota Twins or control the roster. The President of Baseball Operations, Derek Falvey, handles those duties. The Pohlads don't sweep the stadium floors or do the plumbing work or coach the team in the dugout, either. They're not getting their hands dirty over Christian Vazquez. They DID sign off on adding a long term $30MM / yr contract, exploding their budget way beyond expectations in 2022 and again in 2023.

You got that right. No prospective buyer is going to be willing to drag out the purchase process. Glen Taylor set that sale up perfect. He thought they might have a core which could be successful and he was right. They went deep into the playoffs, the franchise skyrocketed in value and Taylor tried to back out.

If you're concerned about impacts of the sale of a sports franchise after you die, I either really do not want your level of anxiety or I totally want your life soooooo bad. I haven't had a single tiny iota of concern free to dedicate to where the Twins play after I die, LOL. 1) If the Pohlad family remained owners, they could potentially move the team after 2040. Just like John Fisher is moving the Athletics. 2) An ironclad, legally binding agreement compel the Twins to play their games at Target Field until 2040 regardless of who owns them.

Are the Pohlad's actively involved in arbitration? My guess is no. I also think the Pohlad's have a reputation for treating their employees well so it would seem like something out of character. Arbitration is a little different than it used to be a few years ago because arbitrators can't pick a mid-point value. One of the biggest problems I feel exists in arbitration is the expectation values are based on old school metrics. For a guy like Jax, that means saves, which he doesn't earn. It wouldn't surprise me if the Twins said they were going to offer $2MM to him in arbitration, if Jax countered with the $4MM he should have earned, it's likely the arbiter would go with the $2MM number and Jax could get hosed. He at least had the $350k bonus for pre-arb guys to fall back on? For a guy like Lewis, he might have been concerned about batting average, or the comments in the media at the end of the year impacting him if the Twins went in with a lowball like $1.25MM and Lewis was countering with $2.5MM, etc. Or perhaps the Twins and Lewis are discussing a long term deal so avoiding arbitration is just a formality... or maybe Lewis is truly disgruntled and is looking to be traded at a cheaper price? Who knows? Lewis is a Boras client so rolling over doesn't seem all that commonplace.

Man, seems like the Twins really beat down a few of their players. Ryan, Ober and Lewis all took deals way lower than arbitration estimates. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html $6.4MM actual (+3%) vs. estimate Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM $4.55MM actual (-3%) vs. estimate Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM $3.7MM actual (-14%) vs. estimate Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM $2.4MM actual (-8%) vs. estimate Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM $3.0MM actual (-21%) vs. estimate Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM $2.1MM actual (0%) vs. estimate Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM $4.1MM actual (+11%) vs. estimate Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM $1.6MM actual (-30%) vs. estimate Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM For Lewis, who wasn't happy at the end of last year, taking the deal he did is a bit surprising. Joe Ryan being willing to take a huge hit to estimates also surprises me. I wonder how the relationships between the Twins and some of these core players looks today?

I could ride the bench and watch the game just as well as Vazquez can.

These proposals reflect an extremely negative outlook on Jeffers or what I consider to be an indefensibly positive outlook on Wandy Peralta. Jeffers has proven to be a solid starting catcher who is making a very friendly $5MM in arbitration this year, and who is still under team control for what looks like a favorable $8MM-ish next year? Conversely, Wandy Peralta is a consecutive year negative WAR player with 2 additional player options beyond this year. Peralta is an aging, mostly neutral to negative WAR pitcher throughout his stunningly lengthy career. BTV has Peralta as -9.7 in value, Jeffers as a +16.2 in value. In order to make the deal whole, the Padres would have to throw in a top 50 MLB prospect just to balance this out. It's a truly stunning trade proposal. Assuming the Twins would be willing to part with their only likely MLB caliber catcher on the roster, I expect this trade would be possible if the Padres included Luis Campusano AND Kavares Tears.

He has 1 option.

The move is pretty significant. While I don't view Jair Camargo as a legitimate prospect anymore, Cartaya could be a defense first backup at the MLB level. Steamer projections: Camargo - .203/.259/.347 OPS .605 wRC+ 70 Cartaya - .198/.273/.345 OPS .618 wRC+ 75 Vazquez - .238/.284/.352 OPS .636 wRC+ 80 Gasper - .247/.343/.372 OPS .714 wRC+ 109 I think that's enough depth now to part ways with Vazquez. At least one of the catching prospects should be replacement level or better, and that's all the Twins can really "expect" from Vazquez.

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. All those players who made the All Star games suck, and they didn't contribute anything to all of Falvey's teams not looking like the Chicago White Sox last year.

@Nick Nelson vs. BTV seems pretty spot on to me. 1. Jenkins vs. Jenkins +58.4 2. Lewis vs. Ober +54.1 3. Ober vs. Ryan +53.5 4. Ryan vs. Lopez +47.8 5. Lopez vs. Lewis +47.3 6. Lee vs. Rodriguez +45? Nobody is asking for him on BTV 7. Rodriguez vs. Wallner +38.1 8. Wallner vs. Lee +37.0 9. Festa vs. Jax +28.8 10. Jax vs. Correa +25.8 11. Duran vs. Duran +24.7 12. Matthews vs. Keaschall +23.3 13. Keaschall vs. Larnach +22.6 14. Larnach vs. Festa +19.5 15. Jeffers vs. SWR +19.1 16. Correa vs. Julien +16.5 17. Miranda vs. Jeffers +16.2 18. Raya vs. Miranda +16.1 19. SWR vs. Matthews +12.9 20. Julien vs. Buxton +10.4 The list is pretty close to identical. The only swap is Raya vs. Buxton making the very edge, and only a Correa is more than a handful of rank spots off. If the Twins go to a World Series in the next 2 years, here's my rank of how important these players are in regard to likelihood they made major contributions to carry the team. WAR baseline expected vs. potential. 2.5 for position players/starters 1.0 for utility guys, 0.5 for relievers. 1. Lewis 2. Wallner 3. Correa 4. Duran 5. Jax 6. Everybody else.

Buxton ranks #20th overall on BTV's values I saw as well. Right on the cusp. I tend to agree with that assessment. He's borderline top 20 value, which is to say, not a ton.

What's this "core" Falvey built? Here's the core Falvey inherited. 2009 MVP, 6x All Star and HoF'er Joe Mauer with 2 years of team control 2021 All Star Eduardo Escobar with 2 years of team control 2008, 2017 All Star Ervin Santana with 2 years of team control 2015 All Star Brian Dozier with 3 years of team control 2021 All Star Kyle Gibson with 3 years of team control 2017 All Star Miguel Sano with 4 years of team control 2022 All Star Byron Buxton with 5 years of team control 2019 All Star Jorge Polanco with 6 years of team control 2018-2019 All Star Jose Berrios with 6 years of team control 2021 All Star Taylor Rogers with 6 years of team control 2022-2024 All Star Luis Arraez with 6 years of team control Seriously... you'd think Falvey inherited a team of garbage the way you talk. 1B - Mauer 2B - Dozier 3B - Sano SS - Polanco LF - Rosario CF - Buxton RF - Kepler Util - Escobar SP1 - Santana SP2 - Gibson SP3 - Berrios 8 players with multiple years of team control produced more value than any player on the Twins that Falvey has ever developed in his tenure. EVER. Because Falvey has never seen one of his drafted/signed/developed prospects ever produce a single 3 WAR season.

It's a value proposition, like deferrals in a contract.

Lewis is 6'2" tall. Not sure how light you expect him to be at that height? When it comes to speed, 2 ACL surgeries, a severe quad strain and a hip strain make it impossible to tell what his speed will be. Trevor Plouffe has talked about Lewis' throwing issues, and Plouffe seemed in disbelief the Twins haven't been able to coach Lewis on the issue. Lewis' arm is strong enough to play SS. Lewis' speed should grant him the range to play SS. Could he also play 3B/2B? Sure. 1B? I hope not. SS = +0.75 WAR 2B = +0.25 WAR 3B = +0.25 WAR 1B = -1.25 WAR

Falvey hasn't been successful as a GM if the mark of success is pursuing a championship. 23% of teams in baseball have been to a World Series since Falvey took over, and 33% have been to a league championship game. The Twins are not one of those franchises despite Falvey inheriting essentially a playoff team with a very strong core. He was given a superior budget for the division, a superior core, a huge budget for overhauling the team's development, excellent facilities which had been freshly remodeled, and he produced bupkis (for all those unfamiliar with that term, it means goat poop).

Seattle has made it pretty clear they're not interested in trading their rotation guys, but there are some teams out there who might be. I think Brooks Lee is a tough one to gauge. Considering how awful and overmatched he was last year, there are plenty of teams who likely don't view Lee as an attractive acquisition. There are also some other teams who likely expect Lee to make some adjustments and potentially turn into a star.

There's a lot to consider from the Twins' perspective. Only the Twins had Berrios, and Toronto wasn't the only team making offers so the lost opportunity of other trade offers we don't even know about. From a BTV standpoint, Toronto made a massive overpay for Berrios and the Twins took it, but what if the Padres were offering MacKenzie Gore? Anyway, there's also the NPV to consider. A quality player now is worth more than a quality player in the future. I think the trade went poorly for the Twins as of right now. The Twins had the 2nd most valuable pitcher available on the trade market at the deadline in 2021 and they turned that huge asset into one guy who is almost assuredly looking at the twilight of a short and unremarkable career, and another guy who looks like they might stick around with some minimal production for a few more years. I don't believe in SWR in the rotation long term at this point (I'd take Festa over SWR), and Austin Martin has a very low ceiling at this point. While Simeon Woods Richardson still has a chance, the way he folded up shop in the 2nd half as hitters adjusted, and even potentially ran out of steam despite being an 7 year professional under the age of 25 doesn't bode well for him being successful/better conditioned/more reliable in the future.

Not to mention Correa's response to the Giants, which was to cut off all communication, would have made it awfully clear to the Mets the "negotiation tactic" wouldn't work. Ultimately, I don't think any team would be terribly concerned about Correa's health on a 4 year contract which will start rapidly dropping in cost in 2026. I suspect many teams would be interested in Correa if the Twins were willing to eat $5-10MM off the contract in the next 2 years.

Varland's pitches don't move well. In the bullpen, Varland can add velocity to help compensate, but I see him as a middle reliever ceiling. I've seen the same problem with him in the bullpen that I saw in the rotation which is Varland gives up a lot of very hard contact.

Falvey's overseen eight MLB drafts. Not one of his drafted players has produced a 3.0+ fWAR season for the Twins in their careers. Not one has ever been an All Star, and while you don't like it, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Falvey to have at least produced a single bonafide star player by now. College players, on average make the MLB in 2-3 years. High school players, on average, make MLB in 3-4 years. That's "on average" not on exception, and last year, here are the players who made the All Star Game within Falvey's draft range in the American League alone... Adley Rutschman Gunnar Henderson Steven Kwan Bobby Witt, Jr. Jordan Westburg Riley Greene Jarren Duran David Fry Garrett Crochet Tarik Skubal Mason Miller Logan Gilbert That's 12 players for 15 teams who were "drafted" during Falvey's tenure who were in the All Star game. Luis Arraez was signed by Terry Ryan in 2013, dude. So yeah, it's a feather in Terry Ryan's cap. The same feather that Bill Smith gets for the load of players he signed which represented the Twins in an All Star game. Feel free to keep offering unlimited excuses.

I mean, any of these guys could be in the ballpark of 6-10 depending on personal bias.