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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    No. There are so many worse ownership groups than what the Twins have. Go ahead and scroll down the list of teams in the standings and pick the ones you'd definitely want to own the Twins over the Pohlads vs. the ones you'd definitely rather stay status quo. The Pohlads are somewhere in the middle IMHO.
  2. bean5302
    Remember when the Twins had fans race against Twins' hitters at the Metrodome for doubles? You were always hoping you got Mike Redmond... not Cristian Guzman. Nobody would want to get Byron Buxton right now, haha. Hunter moved off CF, but he was never the speedster Buxton was, and Hunter had gotten the point he was a below average runner when he moved off CF. The big thing which pushes players off CF is a better defensive player coming up behind them. Like when Shane Mack started pushing Puckett off CF. The Twins don't have anybody to push Buxton off.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah, especially these days. It's a thing called "anxiety" hahaha. I hear about it all the time.
  4. bean5302
    Radke predates the 20 years ago note in the article. Radke is the 2nd best pitcher in Twins history behind Bert Blyleven. Like 45 career WAR... had he undergone surgery in 2005, I think he likely would have continued his career and had a legit case for the Baseball HoF. People seriously underestimate how excellent he was.
  5. bean5302
    Irvin is the #1, Dobnak is the #2. Deal.
  6. bean5302
    Keirsey? He's like a poor man's Andrew Stevenson, who is a poor man's Ben Revere, who was a poor man's Billy Hamilton, who is a poor man's starting outfielder. I honestly have no idea what the Twins will do about CF next year because I'm not sure the current front office will be the same next year when the Twins miss the playoffs. The team is a catastrophe from the top to the bottom in terms of ownership direction, operations vision, and on field management.
  7. bean5302
    When it comes to Irvin... he's a starter, not a reliever and his SP splits are better than his RP splits. The Red Sox have obviously seen him a lot so I'm not sure he was the right call, especially given his splits as a RP against a team who knows him well. Sands allowed 3ER after Irvin so the Twins would have lost there as well if we're going with the direct view of woulda coulda shoulda. Gotta score more than 3 runs if you want to win ballgames.
  8. bean5302
    The Tigers benched Javy Baez, a veteran (even high priced!). Something Baldelli and Falvey would never allow. The Tigers have been rebuilding for literally a decade and it looks like it's coming together for them, and that's how they got their depth and young talent. They've also opened up the wallet and started to spend. Detroit is a bigger market than the Twins enjoy, and I expect the Tigers' payroll to max out in the $180MM range, which they will keep pushing so long as their window is open, unlike the Pohlads. The AL Central is no longer a cake walk and the Twins are in disarray. Might be a tough few years ahead as our window looks to be closing as fast as it opened.
  9. bean5302
    Buxton will be the primary center fielder for the Twins for at least another couple years. Buxton's defensive metrics are way down this year, but the components show there's no reason to believe it's not going to rebound from a UZR/150 type standpoint. From an OAA standpoint, the components of his defense show Buxton is probably 70, maybe even 75 grade sprint speed at this point at 29.5 ft/sec (28ft/sec) is 60 grade and the bottom of solid CF play, I'd say. His reaction to balls of the bat is slower than average. Maybe missing a full year of outfield play has some impact on that. The rest, his jump, acceleration, range, arm strength, is all very good. The Twins have no potential options to replace Buxton, no room in the payroll to sign somebody.
  10. bean5302
    Raya has clearly made some adjustments in order to get into the zone more. His walk rate has decreased quite a bit, but unfortunately, the strikeout rate went with it. I had closed the book on Raya as of mid-July, but it appears the front office finally got around to seeing whether or not he was a starter after all. I look forward to seeing what he can do in AAA next year.
  11. bean5302
    Like stock market analysts nation-wide, the odds change depend on random factoids. It's down to 21.6% now because the morning rain in the Minneapolis area which wasn't forecasted spooked investors, reminding them the world is an uncertain place.
  12. bean5302
    Yep. Same as Mike Illitch when he exploded payroll up to the $200MM mark for the Tigers in the early 2010s. Same as Charlie Finley did for the Oakland A's in the 80s into the early 90s. When owners are on their way out and they're just chasing a dream, they'll open up the wallet wide because they can. The Padres were forced to steeply cut payroll because Siedler had stretched the payroll to the point the team and ownership was in violation of MLB liquidity rules. It's ironic the World Series win might come a year after his death.
  13. bean5302
    Farmer has quietly gotten his bat back to about league average. I give him a 30% chance at getting an MLB contract from some team next year. .226/.305/.379 OPS .684 wRC+ 95 Alcala cannot be recalled since he must spend 15 calendar days on optional assignment to the best of my knowledge.
  14. bean5302
    Baldelli clearly views this like the Twins are playing in the playoffs already. We've got the urgency, but time will tell if the bullpen can hold out with this kind of usage.
  15. bean5302
    Ober's a good pitcher, but the excitement about drafting and developing a mid rotation arm can only get traction due to the barren list presented in the article.
  16. bean5302
    Article talks about the home grown crew in the last 2 decades. Gotta turn the clock back further for Radke since he retired 18 years ago, and made his debut 29 years ago. Liriano gets passed over because he wasn't drafted by the Twins, though he spent time in the low minors with the Twins. Santana was a rule 5 pick, but he made it to the Twins having only been in the low minors. Santana spent 48 innings at AAA for the Red Wings in 2002. Joe Ryan was already been pitching in the high minors for a couple years before joining the Twins where he had a whopping 4 innings on our minor league system. The Twins get credit for refining him while at the MLB level, trying to find pitches Ryan could work into his repertoire, but they didn't develop him to get him to MLB.
  17. bean5302
    Considering Correa is on record saying it wasn't possible for him to play because he couldn't even walk without being in pain, the Twins really didn't have an option but to wait. Also, neither player is healthy. They're both borderline playable and day to day.
  18. bean5302
    So who gets held accountable for failure? Nobody because the Twins have more than 1 employee? Falvey, Levine and Baldelli's jobs are to get the Twins' employees (players) to deliver competitive performance. It's their responsibility. The other MLB coaches have responsibility, too, but are you going to blame Pete Maki for not getting enough out of 3 rookies in the rotation including a guy who started the year in A+ ball? Or Maybe you fire Suggs for the reliever meltdowns when Falvey is playing musical chairs with the bullpen roster and Baldelli keeps putting relievers in the positions? How about put it all on the 3rd base coach, Tommy Watkins because he doesn't seem to be able to gauge player speed? Blame the hitting coach for Rocco Baldelli playing Christian Vazquez, Manny Margot and Brooks Lee every single game? Or Popkins for not getting more out of Eddie Julien this year when the Twins have 12 regular hitters at or above MLB average production level? There is a common denominator. It's the front office and Baldelli. They created the philosophy and they choose the players. The ownership bares responsibility for pulling the rug out at the deadline, but even that could be on Falvey if it was clearly communicated there would be no additional payroll room beyond what he started the year with.
  19. bean5302
    None of that is relevant. If the Twins need payroll space, Lopez is the easiest way to get it. He doesn't have an NTC, and he's expensive. #2 starters are tough to come by, but certainly not impossible. Those are just facts. Buxton has zero trade value without eating some of his contract and he has an NTC. Correa probably has zero trade value without eating some of his contract and he has an NTC. There aren't any other big salary players on the Twins slated for next year. I don't think the Twins are probably going to trade him, but even if they did, his FMV is probably $25MM/yr. Baseballtradevalues had Lopez as a surplus value of 43 in June. Similar to Emmanuel Rodriguez-ish or so.
  20. bean5302
    I agree. The Rocco Baldelli "rest and rehab" approach for players who've accidentally played more than 2 games in a row feels counterproductive. Routine usually keeps people healthy.
  21. bean5302
    I did not dump on Santana.
  22. bean5302
    They spent enough last offseason. Falvey squandered it.
  23. bean5302
    It's such an interesting premise to me that Falvey is the one who might choose to terminate his time with the Twins when Joe Pohlad made it clear last year Falvey was on the hot seat. https://www.startribune.com/joe-pohlad-feeling-urgency-as-minnesota-twins-falter-jim-souhan/600288463 As of right now, it appears ownership has chosen a wait and see approach for a GM who will have made the playoffs 4 times in 8 years, with one playoff series win and the 2nd highest budget of any team in the least competitive division in baseball over that time span. Falvey hasn't developed proven elite talent at the MLB level. Not a single All Star has come from Falvey's drafting and development in 8 years on the job. Around here, it seems he's often viewed as some sort of celebrity king-maker because the Twins are a pretty nice employer https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/twins-front-office-ranked-eighth-best-in-baseball-in-athletic-poll when they're not conspiring to with other teams to win more championship belts for beating their players down in arbitration https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/888513/2019/03/29/ready-to-strike-tomorrow-how-one-20-trinket-captures-the-strife-within-a-10-billion-industry/ or angering the faces of their franchise like Buxton and Berrios in 2021, and probably Royce Lewis this year. My viewpoint coming into 2024 was Falvey was being challenged to put together a team without the ownership group bailing him out by extending payroll as they'd done late in the offseason in back to back years for Correa. It wasn't my favorite decision, but $130MM was enough if Falvey handled the budget well and made the right, but tough, decisions. Instead, Falvey failed to address any pressing need the Twins had. He gets an F from me for the offseason. When it came to the trade deadline, ownership gets the F, Falvey gets a D. It's Falvey's job to improve the team, and press for a World Series with the resources he does have. That includes the farm system. If the budget wasn't there, the farm system was. Falvey got conservative. Maybe ownership chose to hamstring Falvey in trading assets as well because of Falvey's potential lame-duck status? I could see that happening, in which case, I do think Falvey might test the waters elsewhere.
  24. bean5302
    Correa is not going to request a trade. He's happy here. He's also going to have to approve a trade, which 1. Won't be easy to find a fit. 2. Won't be easy to find a partner Correa would prefer. Pablo Lopez is where the Twins get a lot of budget room. He doesn't have a NTC, he's expensive, and the Twins can obtain a replacement from dealing prospects.
  25. bean5302
    Here are the Twins' optional SS's this year by physical skill sets. Throwing speed and sprint speed, ranked in probable order of potential based on physical abilities alone. Most important, arm. Second most important, acceleration (not exactly sprint speed, but close) MLB Median 84.0mph, 28.0 ft/sec CC = 88.8mph, 26.9 ft/sec WC = 86.7mph, 27.9 ft/sec RL = 84.0mph, 26.4 ft/sec** AM = 83.6mph*, 28.2 ft/sec KF = 81.3mph, 26.0 ft/sec BL = 81.2mph, 25.7 ft/sec *Extrapolated Austin Martin's arm from Willi Castro's OF arm vs. his SS arm. **Lewis' destroyed quad has clearly cost him speed this year. He's normally close to Martin in speed. Brooks Lee has, literally, the worst physical skill set among them. His ceiling, if he fields the ball almost perfectly, is adequate. A great shortstop is going to need consistent playing time at the position to keep their feel for the game. Where runners are. Where the ball needs to go. What base to cover. Can a base runner be thrown out. Without repetition, none of that is going to be instinctual, and fractions of a second make the difference between outs and hits.
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