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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I do suppose you start running out of currently available and viable options...especially if both were to be moved.
  2. jkcarew
    Ironic. Just today I had expressed the opinion that I wanted the Twins to be ultra conservative with Sano and make sure they take all time needed to ingrain new behaviors whether they be in game or preparation/conditioning. I'm very happy that he's making good progress. I just hope this isn't premature, and based on some short-sited urgency regarding the notion of getting back into it in 2018.
  3. jkcarew
    If I were the Twins, instead of that...I'd go with this... Since 2016... only 3 lead-off hitters have had more RBI than Dozier Among 33 batters that have had more than 500 PA's as their teams lead-off hitter (500+ total PA in games where they lead off the first inning), Dozier has the 5th highest RBI rate (RBI per plate appearance).
  4. jkcarew
    To be fair, some of the pessimism regarding Dozier's trade value, if expressed even 3 weeks ago, was a little more warranted. Even with Dozier, it's still hard to project his value above the productivity he demonstrates in the 350 plate appearances that occur before July. His wRC+ is currently 12th among qualified second-basemen, and 18th among second-basemen with more than 200 PA. But this article is the blue-print of how the Twins would/should present Dozier in trade negotiations (except for the GB rate (: )
  5. jkcarew
    That opinion isn't in my post . Just stated the willingness on the part of the Twins to make that offer would be the only justification (IMO) for not trading him. Or, another way of saying the same thing..."if you're not willing to offer the QO, you HAVE to trade him." (Assuming the Twins consider themselves sellers by the deadline.) You're not going to extend him at this point, months away from hitting the open market and having a career year.
  6. jkcarew
    I'm 'optimistically cautious' (how's that!) on Rooker. He's also 4th in the league in strike-outs with a K% of nearly 30. And looking less and less likely to stick defensively in the outfield. The good news is the power continues to show that it would probably plays at 1B/DH....and the K-rate is holding steady from what he showed last year at Ft. Myers.
  7. jkcarew
    Exactly this. Also, the frequent 10th inning pitching line: 1 R, 0 ER....and then I run off to look for who committed the error.
  8. jkcarew
    Yeah, in the picture, he's got kind of a baby-face, the-uniform-they-gave-me-doesn't-quite-fit-right, youth-league look about him. And he's about 2 1/2 years OLDER than Royce Lewis.
  9. jkcarew
    At any point it time, you are what you're record says you are. But to your point...maybe you don't pick up the phone until a week before the deadline....but you sure as heck better be answering it.
  10. jkcarew
    In my mind, the only justification for NOT trading Escobar is if the Twins have already made the decision that they are willing to QO him. I think it's arguable whether the team would/should feel that Escobar is worth a QO for 2019. Dozier, Sano, Gordon...even Polanco and Adrianza...a lot of decisions and moving pieces. It makes for great speculation.
  11. jkcarew
    My take-away from this article?... Is that Elizabethton's game field behind Larnach? Yikes. It looks like my high-school field in northern Minnesota looked every April, except slightly worse.
  12. jkcarew
    If you get a good offer for someone not in your 2019 plans TODAY, you take it. Nothing this team has done in 2018...including nothing in the last two weeks...warrants any type of short term decision-making.
  13. jkcarew
    SD Buhr: But Sano has hit just 2 home runs in 64 at-bats at Ft. Myers and let’s face it, hitting for power is really the ONLY thing this guy brings to the table at this point. If he can’t do that three levels below the big leagues, that’s more than just a little discouraging. Kinda depressing topic ...but a lot to discuss and debate, sadly. With regard to Sano, I agree that he's very relevant for the topic...but to use Ft. Myers HR numbers to make the argument? My presumption would be that he's at Ft. Myers to do everything BUT work on his power stroke....including things that would initially inhibit his HR rate, like letting the ball get deeper and learning how to get certain pitches and drive the ball to center and right. Of the 101 things to worry about with Sano, his long-term ability to hit a ball over the fence comes in at 102, IMO.
  14. jkcarew
    Depth is good. And the depth is good. Maybe a little better balance of high floor to go along with the high ceiling toward the top than we've had in the past? There's a lot of randomness in development. The two guys taken ahead of Kirby Puckett in the January phase of the 1982 draft combined for career WAR of -0.3. Turns out Kirby developed more favorably. We're going to be the ones that get lucky every now and then. Keep the faith.
  15. jkcarew
    Is it just my imagination or might Jaylin Davis be creeping into the picture for 2020/2021?...(depending upon what happens with other organization outfielders that are ahead of him, of course) If you imagine that he's one year younger than Wade (actually 6 months younger), then he's played the same levels as Wade at the same age as Wade, and his numbers have been only moderately inferior to Wade's....pretty much centered on inferior BB and K rates. But meanwhile, Davis is making progress with the K%, he swings the bat right-handed, and presumably has a good arm (based on the preponderance of his starts being in RF). This isn't a Davis/Wade comparison...Wade started out miles ahead of Davis and remains way ahead of him, obviously...but it's starting to seem like Davis might have a shot, which would be quire remarkable given his story and draft status.
  16. jkcarew
    Nice to see the Gordon injury must not be serious.
  17. jkcarew
    Putzing in the yard with the radio on, when the Twins made a mini-threat in the 9th, Provus made the comment “and a lot of fans are still here!”...as if the idea of fans sticking around for the 9th inning of a tie game was extraordinary...an afternoon game at that. But, he’s right in this case. The 3rd out of the 9th inning was recorded at 4:18 minutes. Even without the bench-clearing shenanigans, this was 9 innings in over 4 hours. Embarrassing for baseball.
  18. jkcarew
    Agreed with having a position player pitch in the 9th. (Assuming you have a plan for the arm or two you saved.) I could not care less about 14-6 vs 19-6. Having said that, why should a game against an offensively challenged club like the Rays have to get to that spot in the first place? In-game bullpen moves and bullpen management have been poor during Molitor’s entire tenure. Not a strength at all. And the FO has to take at least some of the blame for the bullpen roster management (and Belisle).
  19. jkcarew
    See above. Thrylos gives a great summary of the youngest Twins starters.
  20. jkcarew
    Pitching about 5 innings every 7 days. You would think they would want to change this very soon if they think he’ll be that accelerated. It’s exciting to think that the Twins could have a 20 year old starter. Can’t remember the last time that happened.
  21. jkcarew
    I think it's extremely unlikely...but for the sake of argument... If they have plans to do that, they need to trade Gordon while they can get a return, right? To me, signing both would be a statement on what the organization thinks of Gordon. (Unless you're signing them for one, maybe two years...which I guess is always possible, but again unlikely.)
  22. jkcarew
    Really aggressive on Graterol, but I don't think there's much arguing the upside. His video does look nice...looks strong and athletic, and obviously the velocity. The risk and distance to the major leagues has him lower, IMO. I'm high on him, but not quite that excited yet. One thing that would help (in terms of how I look at him at this point in time) is if we were seeing him handle a realistic workload. And two years removed from the surgery, we're not seeing that yet. I'm not suggesting this is, in and of itself, an indication of an issue...I'm saying it's tough to get a good sense of his trajectory when he's sitting at one season of 40 innings and another (this season) where he's sitting at 50 innings in the middle of July. I imagine by next year (hopefully) we'll start seeing him handling a regular workload and, at the same time, facing tougher competition.
  23. jkcarew
    Now Cody....you had all 5 on this list ranked below Lewin Diaz, right? I don’t think it’s too late to go with simple denial.
  24. jkcarew
    No. You are citing data that is real. Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario. So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion.
  25. jkcarew
    Let me try to elaborate. I looked at you link. You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year. I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite. "Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal. If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative. I very much doubt that is the case.
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