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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    "Above average exit velocity" Just kidding. I like the stories on the long-shots. Keep them coming...I pull for these guys. The harsh reality is that they are long-shots for a reason and will 'fail' 9 times out of 10. But I have no problem toggling between by 'Twins' perspective and my 'big-picture' perspective. For 95+ percent of young men that commit to professional baseball, never getting to the majors...or failing at that level, is the reality. Through that lens, Magill is doing great and I'm happy for him. It's an understatement to say that guys playing in AAA are good players and accomplished a lot in their career. These are true statements.
  2. jkcarew
    Yes...I'm not one for "Mauer without concussions take". What about Puckett without glaucoma? What about Oliva without devestating, crippling really, knee injuries? One had his counting stats severely truncated...the other say his productivity numbers nose-dive as he attempted to play for seasons without legs. You are what you are, you did what you did. Joe is not nearly the first to have a 'reason/excuse' (whatever you want to call it) for not having 'even better' numbers. With regard to Carew vs Mauer...both were ridiculously great for a few years. But, Carew sustained the "really goodness" for more seasons than did Joe. I have no problem with people that feel Joe's 2009 was better than Carew's 1977 based on the fact that Joe caught 105 games that season. (Joe only caught 100+ games in 5 seasons.) Joe is to be congratulated for his milestone accomplishments. He's lucky in that he is in a situation where he should be able to complete a full career with his original club...an opportunity Carew would have loved, but wasn't offered in any serious manner. I think Joe appreciates this. FWIW...someone gave Carew credit for a Gold Glove earlier in this thread. He never won one. Wasn't ever really considered that strong of a second-baseman. Good range, a bit stiff around the bag, making the turn, etc. Average hands...which seems ironic given what they did with a bat. He ended up being an above-average first-baseman. Also, Carew missed the better part of an entire season, as well....1970. Early in his career also missed significant games with mandatory/periodic exercises with the Army Reserve (or was it the National Guard)?
  3. jkcarew
    The thing with Buxton is I'm not hearing anything about tearing his swing down and building back up from scratch. It's more...well, he's feeling better, so let's start throwing him out there. If that's the case, I want as many of those remaining 2018 PA to be in the majors. I'm way more concerned with 2019 than I am the last year of control in 2022. We have no realistic confidence level that the combination of his health and performance will even warrant caring about the additional year by the time it comes around. His career OPS+ is 79. I'd just as soon not waste one day between now and the beginning of 2019 in terms of seeing if he can figure out how to hit major league pitching.
  4. jkcarew
    Boy, it seems like all the full-season guys are hitting the wall at the same time. You know it's bad when Kirilloff is down to one hit per game! Can't find any news on Luis Arraez. Just have to wait to see if he's in the Lookouts lineup tonight?
  5. jkcarew
    Or 20. Or 15.
  6. jkcarew
    I didn’t see much to be encouraged about with Gonsalves, honestly. To play in the majors, His stuff is going to require great command. And he has the opposite of great command. Was incredibly lucky last night for as long as you can expect to be lucky. Still glad he’s getting a taste...and who knows. Reports were his command has improved, especially this year, so we could be seeing nerves playing a factor.
  7. jkcarew
    Then the reason we’ve seen so much Wilson and relatively little Garver behind the plate since the Castro injury is that they have Garver on an “innings/games count” so he doesn’t get tired legs? If that’s the case, I’d be even more frustrated than I am under the alternative assumption that Molitor simply would rather have Wilson behind the plate.
  8. jkcarew
    It's probably useful to remember that Garver was not really aggressively developed as a catcher in Minors. As little as he's played catcher for the Twins this year...he'll still probably end up the year having caught more games this season than he had in any minor league season. And that's why I can't really understand why, at this point of the season, he wouldn't be catching 5 of every 7 games (or 5 of every 6 on weeks with off days).
  9. jkcarew
    Fun with numbers... Rooker in about 520 PA for Chattanooga: 828 OPS Jaylin Davis in about 220 PA: 831 OPS (Davis is a year older. And I'm not saying that Davis is going to be better. But, still.) Also, Rortvedt now OPS'ing 720 with an OBP of 347. At a place/league were offensive numbers are typically a bit depressed. In his 20-year-old season. As a player that most (not all) analysts have considered a glove-first catcher up to this point. I would have to think that this is viewed as a very encouraging year for Rortvedt within the organization.
  10. jkcarew
    His overall K % in 2018 is almost 40...no? Probably worse against RH pitching? SSS...agree he’s looked better than that with the Twins. A solid “we’ll see”...more intriguing than the options we were deploying...who warrants a good long chance because when he hits it, it lands on the other side of the fense.
  11. jkcarew
    Lots of thing to like and admire about Molitor, IMO. To me, a manager's value is primarily in two places: the demeanor/attitude of the team; and in-game decision-making (which includes lineups). The former is hard to assess and very dependent upon what information makes it's way to the assessor. My guess is he might be pretty decent in this arena...but not inclined to defend that...I'll not go there for now. The later is easier to assess/observe. I don't think Molitor is a good (say even top half of the league) in-game manager. I think he's gotten better. Do I think there are better over-all options out there? Yes.
  12. jkcarew
    I hope the FO does't fall in love with any of these guys. Austin is intriguing, but with his K-rate, he's right on the edge of Chris Carter'ing himself out of baseball. Cave strikes out a ton for a guy that figures to have middling power...and he's left-handed. I don't even pretend to know what Drake is at this point. These guys were better solutions that we were deploying...but are they going to move the needle for a contending team? Maybe. Likewise, the losses of guys like D. Rodriguez, R Rosario, and Chargois are not particularly offensive, IMO. There were legitimate reasons for choosing not to carry these guys. I'd put all of the above in the category of normal season-to-season roster shuffling noise IMO. You always win a few and lose a few.
  13. jkcarew
    Cave's K% is 31%. Grossman's is 22%. Just saying.
  14. jkcarew
    Kenny's has been pretty bad all year. He was OPS'ing .657 on August 7. Despite an insanely hot streak, he's at .729 currently. Rooker definitely slumping for the last couple of weeks. That was only his second HR since July 28. On the positive side, his walk rate has maintained and his K% has not ballooned. Two things noteworthy with Rooker lately. One, he has developed absurd home/away spits this year (in favor of home). Weird. Probably just SSS anomaly? Second, whereas in the first half of the season he seemed to have been 'converted' to a first-baseman...lately, he's been playing outfield significantly more than 1B. We'll see if Wiel's promotion changes things.
  15. jkcarew
    Also, Acuna had more than 500 PA at AA/AAA when the Braves pulled the trigger. And yes, Soto was a fairly significant risk, warranted given the desperate straights Washington was in regarding their playoff race. (Although, FWIW...what Soto was doing in small samples at A+ and AA were a whole 'nuther level as compared to even what Kiriloff is doing.)
  16. jkcarew
    Agree with the concept. Those trades were examples of good Terry Ryan. Not only because he was 'proactive' in looking for the opportunities, and got good (really great) value for Kielty and Buchanan....but because they made the correct choices in which pieces of the depth to trade vs keep. Bad Terry, proactively traded Hicks because he was sure about Buxton. Might want to be 'more sure' (at least AA sure?) about Kiriloff before we part ways with any of the major league pieces.
  17. jkcarew
    The other challenge is that he's a corner outfielder who's slugging .370 in 57 games at Rochester. For context, with the Twins this year: Grossman .365, Morrison .368, Adrianza .380, Mauer .358. Also, both Kepler and Cave are OPS'ing with the Twins better than Wade is with Rochester. I definitely don't want Wade not playing every day right now...so fine with him finishing the Rochester season. Would like to see him in September...but don't know if the roster math will make that practical.
  18. jkcarew
    But the IF in that last paragraph is a pretty significant if where we sit today...and that’s what the ‘life of luxury’ money is dependent on. And if he’s not, he’s out of baseball or a AAAA player. I’m not sure his camp wouldn’t be willing to look at relatively friendly extensions...maybe sooner rather than later. Turning it around...what IF his 2019 resembles in any way his 2018 either in health or performance?
  19. jkcarew
    I guess the question is, how many major-league at-bats do you sacrifice to get the extra year of control? For my money, I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice many at all. Buxton doesn't know how to hit major league pitching, and until that is figured out, the extra year of control doesn't have much value. First things first. He needs reps at hitting. After that, he needs more reps at hitting. And I'll hope that we even care about his service time down the road.
  20. jkcarew
    Agree that you can win championships with solidly/consistently average players...even at several positions. Also, I do think Max can be better than solidly average...but how much better is what is at the heart of this article. One of the central themes of the article (and an article that proceeded it) is that Max has been 'unlucky' with regard to batted-ball results. And that we could expect better results in the future based both on real (for lack of a better term) improvements he is making...but also based on his batted ball luck normalizing. I'm disagreeing with the later, is all. At 1500 career plate appearances, his BABiP has already 'normalized'...and it's a low number.
  21. jkcarew
    This article was written in the middle of the last/most recent road trip. On that road trip, Kepler posted a BABiP of .056 (1 for 18). If Max were to get 6 hits on his next 6 balls-in-play, he'd still be below (for the recent stretch) the 'normal' that is being suggested here as Kepler's inevitable destiny. OK...1 for 18 is bad luck. But, the idea that all batters will tend toward a .300 BABiP is a false narrative. Max's batter ball profile will need to change to get to the optimistic end of our hopes.
  22. jkcarew
    The advantage of identifying the tell is partly off-set by the fact that the batter, in looking for the tell, is compromising his focus/view of the release point.
  23. jkcarew
    This is not a crazy idea. But then, you're suggesting that, this off-season, the Twins sign two left-handed bats that can only play (from a practical standpoint) 1B. Because if they don't sign Joe, but sign Murphy to play 1B/DH...the governor will have to call in the National Guard.
  24. jkcarew
    I don't think anyone has been 'joyful'...at least regarding what this means for the Twins. But, I think one can be a bit joyful for the player, separating what it means for the Twins. Wasn't Stewart's fault he was drafted 4th and offered $4 1/2 million to sign. He could have given up...the 4.5 has been in his pocket for some time. But, he's been a grinder. Maybe an unlikely grinder...but a grinder nonetheless. So, I'm happy for him. We'll see what the future holds.
  25. jkcarew
    But most of those reasons (to go somewhere other than Rodney) all existed when they originally signed him, IMO. Doesn't matter. We agree that there are many legitimate reasons to trade Rodney at this point.
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