Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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No way. 1. Shields is quite a bit better than Bailey. Bailey is more Edwin Jackson than James Shields. 2. Given how the Shields trade has panned out (more about how Myers has played than any deficiency on the part of Shields), I don't see other teams approaching that kind of prospect trade for David Price, much less Homer Bailey.
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Yeah... Santana was a 127 ERA+, 2.8 WAR player in 2013. The Royals are going to struggle to replace his numbers and it's quite a leap to assume that Ventura will come anywhere close to that in 2014. Zimmer won't be a factor in the first few months of 2014, methinks. Of course, there's also a damned good chance that Santana won't come close to that in 2014 either... But we're talking about replacing Santana's 2013, not his potential 2014. But if you're talking long-term future of the Royals, yeah, it's a decent bet that at least one of them will step up and be a factor.
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Doesn't Bailey have two years of arb left? I don't think he's gone after 2014.
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Starting negotiations with Plouffe and Harrison is just enough to get Jocketty to pick up the phone... to tell you to go jump off a bridge. But the idea of trading for Bailey is a good one, you'll just need to up the offer quite a bit. Someone more along the lines of Rosario is probably the starting point.
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Really, I think you're not that far off the mark. I'd say Sano, May, Rosario, and Danny Santana would be a good comp. Hicks is still regarded too highly to be on that list, I think. I don't like the Sano/Escobar comp that much but the Twins don't have anyone between Sano and Meyer so it'll have to do. As for Greinke, we'll just have to disagree. His 2009 was so much better than anything Price has posted (and is the closest thing to a 1999 Pedro we've seen since Martinez was in his prime) that it (unfairly or not) skewed the perception of each pitcher. And, while Johan may have been traded a half decade ago, he's a far better pitcher than either Greinke or Price. The comp has merit, I think. The evaluation tools may have changed a bit since then but Johan was just so much better than Greinke and Price that it more than compensates for the difference. Johan had four seasons with an ERA+ over 150. Greinke, Shields, and Price have one combined. God, it's frustrating to go back and look at Johan's numbers as a Twin.
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If you align stats to the time of the trade, Greinke was considered the better pitcher. Yeah, he struggled in 2010 (then again, Price wasn't great this season either) but his 2009 was probably better than any season Johan had, much less Price. Price is an ace. Greinke was an ACE. Possibly considered the best pitcher in baseball. And you can't compare Sano to Escobar. Right or wrong, there is a huge perception difference between a top 5 prospect and a top 15 prospect. One is very good. The other is can't miss unless something goes horribly wrong.
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Greinke to the Brewers. As a headliner, the Brewers gave up Escobar, BA's #12 prospect (in other words, very good but a far cry from Myers/Sano). After that, they had a bunch of marginal-to-decent prospects who weren't in BA's top 100 as of February 2010. Johan is another decent comp (only one year but guaranteed an extension and a better pitcher than Shields, Greinke, and Price by a country mile). But we all know the Twins basically pulled an anti-Rays with that particular trade.
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You're assuming two things: 1. Another team with that kind of prospect package is going to be willing to trade for Price 2. Another team with that kind of prospect package is going to be insane enough to trade them away The Rays absolutely jobbed the Royals in that deal. I don't see it happening twice.
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I think you're skewing a bit high but yeah, Price will cost a fortune. But the Rays would have to be certifiably insane to not take Sano/Buxton and Meyer for Price. There is no shot in hell that another team could offer that package.
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Article: The Tanaka Factor
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
But in the reality of MLB, front-loading a contract if you have the ability to do it makes way more sense. -
Article: The Tanaka Factor
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If the Twins are going to spend big, this is the way to do it. The team can eat $50m+ in one season and not hamstring themselves with a $20m+ yearly salary 4-5 years from now. They have the money just sitting there, having underspent for two consecutive seasons. Tanaka is 24 years old. With that said, still not gonna happen. Sigh. -
I'm with snepp. I would have written off baseball entirely. It took me five years just to get over the strike of 94. It just so happened that I missed many bad Twins seasons because of it. Hell, living in CA, I didn't even know what happened to Puckett until 1997. Baseball went from an obsession to sport non grata overnight because of the strike. I didn't warm back up to the sport until 98/99.
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What snepp said. Without delving into details to derail the discussion further, I don't moderate much here anymore so you're barking up the wrong tree. I'm busy on the technical side of the site and rarely post anymore so if you have issues with the moderation, I suggest you talk to Glunn via PM and do not derail a public conversation.
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Government Shutdown and the Affordable Care Act
Brock Beauchamp replied to glunn's topic in The Sports Bar
Well, yes. But you cut out the biggest tumor first. -
It wasn't antagonistic. It was poking fun of not trusting Ryan to trade away the right prospects, the one thing that he has a nearly unimpeachable track record of doing right.
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Because if there's one thing Ryan has done in his career, it's trading prospects who flourish in another organization. Oh, wait.
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Government Shutdown and the Affordable Care Act
Brock Beauchamp replied to glunn's topic in The Sports Bar
Yep. There is no way to objectively look at this situation and say it is Obama's fault. The GOP tried and failed to overturn this bill 51 times, for crying out loud. I don't like Obama at this point (his drone strikes and hawkish nature re: privacy and security have completely turned me against him) but let's call a spade a spade here. The GOP is completely out of line right now and we'll all be better off if the American public tells them as much next election. This country badly needs to get back to the point where the GOP moderates are allowed to influence the party and not be cast to the side in favor of the fringe lunatics. -
This is cracking me up. The only thing that would make it better is to discover that Seth is rolling a ten-sided die and posting the results.
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Government Shutdown and the Affordable Care Act
Brock Beauchamp replied to glunn's topic in The Sports Bar
It says a lot about the current state of the GOP that Obama can open negotiations with "brutal thugs" but not the opposing party in this country. This law passed Congress. It was upheld by the Supreme Court. The people of this country re-elected Obama despite the GOP platform of "stop Obamacare". As Shane said, respect the process. The minority GOP doesn't get to hijack the government just because they don't like something (and I don't even like Obamacare much). -
Mike Pelfrey x 11. Now give me my free handbook, dammit.
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Thanks. I searched for quite some time before finding that picture, which so accurately portrays the 2013 season. The second option was of a player getting spiked in the nuts. Also appropriate.
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Private message me your full name and I'll take a look at the transaction logs.
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There's very little innovation listed in this post. What is listed is a solid, fundamental way of approaching baseball scouting and management, which is perfectly fine. Innovation can be important but only when it works... and it often doesn't. There's nothing wrong with not being innovative about everything. But to compete in the market without innovation, you have to be really good at your fundamentals. Scouting, drafting, picking the right pieces at the right time to complement existing pieces. Ryan was very good at doing this from 1998 to 2005-ish, after which the team fell off a cliff with the biggest aspect of fundamental-based, non-innovative managing: the draft. Some of this was poor decisions, some of it bad luck. In the end, it meant failure. Ryan doesn't have to re-invent the wheel to win in baseball. He has to trust his baseball acumen, hire the right scouts, and focus on the things he excels at doing. Can he do that? Hard to say... the results in Minnesota thus far have been atrocious but his drafts look good, his trades look pretty good, and he's doing a lot of things right. Only time will tell whether it's enough.
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The thing is that Kyle Lohse didn't improve significantly after leaving the Twins. His xFIP improved a touch. His yearly WAR was similar until a 2012 breakout (5-6 seasons after leaving the team). Yeah, his strikeouts went up. He moved to the National League. Everybody's strikeouts go up in the National League. Was he a better pitcher after leaving the Twins? Eh, maybe a touch... But mostly, it's statistical noise that could be influenced by league, home stadium, team defense, and any multitude of issues that have little to do with his ability to throw a baseball. It's close enough where it doesn't matter (overall, within a few percentage points, well within any margin of error of advanced metrics). I think Kyle Lohse's biggest problem with the Twins was in his head. You can make an argument that Gardenhire should have helped him straighten up before the door-bashing incident and I think you'd have a point. But to imply that he suddenly turned the corner upon leaving the Twins is just not true.
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Phil Miller: players want Gardy back
Brock Beauchamp replied to gunnarthor's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I wouldn't. I don't think the players' feelings should be the deciding factor but it should certainly be factored into the decision. More than any other sport, clubhouse attitude and morale plays a role in baseball. These guys live together nearly full-time for seven months of the year. They deserve to be heard when it comes to whether they like their boss or not and whether he should be fired.
