Brock Beauchamp

I think it should be pointed out that last June, most of us were clamoring for Gibson to be on the roster. Ryan said he wasn't going deep enough into games and toyed with the strike zone too often. Gibson was called up and... We were wrong. Ryan was right. If Meyer is showing the same problem, don't expect to see him up here early in 2014.

We'll just have to disagree. If Buxton, Meyer, and Sano develop, I don't see how this team loses 90 games in 2015. You're looking at a roster with four potential 3+ WAR players (Mauer, Buxton, Sano, Meyer) and possibly a few more 2+ WAR players (Arcia, Dozier, Mays, Gibson). That's the foundation of a decent team maybe even if it isn't a "true contender".

First, you're not really bringing anything to the conversation with trite quotations. Second, one could make the argument that the Twins are doing exactly the same thing that brought them a decade of sustained success in the 2000s. Focus on the draft, focus on the international market, and bring players slowly but steadily through the system. I think they should be doing more by exploring the free agent market but it's pretty hard to call them insane when you look at their farm system.

A very good second round pick. Given how the current CBA and qualifying offers are constructed, giving up picks is a really big deal, especially when you're picking somewhere in the 40-range with your second pick. Back when qualifying offers were thrown out like candy and there were 10+ supplemental picks every season, it's wasn't such a big deal. Yeah, the Twins might lose a second round pick but they probably had at least one supplemental pick coming back from another player. That is no longer the case.

To clarify, Berrios could be in Minnesota in two years but calling him a #2 at this point is a stretch. My point is more that anyone they have on the roster (outside of Meyers) probably won't be effective within two years.

The White Sox have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and the MLB team had the third-worst record in MLB. There's no hope for them any time soon. They're old (minus a few arms), they have no MiLB depth, and Abreu, while a nice pickup, is not going to change that. They're going to be bad for quite some time and two September series against the also-bad Twins doesn't make their future look any better. Rebuilding an MLB franchise isn't a two-season affair. Yeah, the Twins are seriously lacking in starting pitching depth in the upper minors... But we've all known that for ages, which is why most of us are clamoring for a high-upside FA signing, whether that be a Ubaldo or a Hughes. That helps bridge the next few years until guys like Berrios, Stewart, and Thorpe (hopefully) mature into quality MLB pitchers. But if things go well for the Twins, they don't need an ace pitcher to succeed (to an extent, anyway). Some people seem to be banking on November ticker-tape parades in 2015 but that's more than a little optimistic. If Meyer turns into a good #2, some of the rest of the group (Mays, Gibson) turn into quality #3s, and then a couple more (Eades, Wimmers, Deduno, Hendriks) turn into #4s, that's the foundation of a decent, though unspectacular, staff. Couple it with a good bullpen and a solid offense and you're looking at a fringe contender. Will it happen? I have no idea. Would Phil Hughes or Ubaldo Jimenez or Josh Johnson help? Almost certainly. But to write off this team as hopeless is more than a little short-sighted. They have two of best five prospects in all of baseball, two guys that will be on the MLB squad in no more than 18 months from now.

I don't believe it's that cut and dry and you're a bit limiting in the definition of "success". Has the MLB team been a success in the past three years? No, absolutely not. It has been an unmitigated disaster. On the other hand, the Twins are widely regarded to have the best farm system (or top three, at the very least) in all of baseball. If the Twins were, say, the White Sox right now, I'd be more inclined to agree. The White Sox have wheedled away at their farm system for years while producing a mediocre on-field product in Chicago. Now that well is completely dry. They are an awful organization from front to back. If the 2015 Twins are bad, I'm with you. Sweeping changes will need to be made... but not everything the Twins have done in the past 3-4 years has been unsuccessful... In fact, they've done many things right, we're simply not seeing the product in Minnesota yet (and may never see it, but that's an entirely different argument).

Interesting comment. Smith was a suit; a guy who should have excelled at managing an organization of this size. That it was one of his biggest faults is pretty damning of his tenure.

I think the most polarizing thing about Ryan is how closed-mouth he is about procedure. This allows the people who want to think badly of him continue to do so while hypothesizing his transgressions and it allows the people who think highly of him to continue to do so while hypothesizing his winning strategy. An example of this is that three months ago, people were screaming that the Twins had one guy in analytics without really knowing for sure. We now know for certainty that this is not the case and that they have multiple people in it, people who Ryan claims to consult on every acquisition. I think it's also fair to claim with certainty that they are not using this analytics team to the extent of, say, Tampa Bay. Should Ryan talk more about procedure? I'm not so sure he should... But I'm also not so sure he shouldn't, if only to quiet some of the fanbase and local writers who go off half-cocked and claim theory as truth, whether it be positive or negative.

I think it's a stretch for Ryan to pay for any of these guys but I think it's a giant stretch to expect him to give up a draft pick as well. I just don't see him going after Ubaldo.

Non-throwing shoulder, doesn't seem to be serious.

The Revere trade is still far from decided but there's a good chance the Twins come out of that just fine and they come out of it with pitching while trading from an excess of outfielders. If you're including the draft or international FAs, there are a handful of guys that have done quite well. Thorpe, for one. Berrios, another. It's not hard to come up with more than one example of Ryan doing something right in the past two years.

His injury was frightening, as the Twins have nobody else who can project to being even a good #2 in the next 24 months. Good to see him getting back to form in the AFL.

I haven't. No, really, I haven't... Read about half of it while I was designing the book but haven't had a chance to sit down and read it in order.

John has been tied up with other projects for the past month. He didn't have much time to dedicate to this year's handbook.

You're doing some bang-up work here, Willihammer. But your avatars still freak me the **** out.

Well, I think you're putting a bit too much stock in those comments... Ryan was firing through names. Should a couple of them not have been included on that list? Sure, but all of us know that when you're stating things off the cuff, you're sometimes going to forget a guy that should have been included and maybe throw on a guy who, if you spent time actually writing down names, shouldn't be on the list. If you heard the tape, you could hear Ryan mentally spooling through the roster. Should he have passed over Fryer when running through names to list as positives? Sure. Is it a big deal? Nah, I don't think so. As for Albers, I think Ryan was pretty clear that he was good for only a few starts later in the interview.

In an effort to speed up the site, I turned off some of the lesser-used functionality. We're going to run with it this way for a few days... If I see a marked improvement, I'll turn back on some of the those features that users want back. Touch back here in a week and we'll see how things are going. Or shoot me a PM. That works too.

In this case, xFIP isnt a good metric. It removes home runs allowed and replaces it with "expected home runs". Well, Hughes' problem is that he gives up a ton of flyballs in a stadium that punishes fly ball pitchers. Normalizing that number is ignoring reality.

The division argument is debatable but I don't see how the home stadium is debatable at all. Over the course of his career, here is the home/road ERA of Hughes: 4.96 / 4.10 That's 735 innings of work. That's a huge discrepancy, especially when you factor in that the vast majority of pitchers have better numbers at home, not away from it. Their defenders are more comfortable, they're (usually) more comfortable, and the opposing hitters are uncomfortable. I don't understand how home stadium wouldn't be important. If you're a flyball pitcher, do you want to pitch in Dodger Stadium or Minute Maid Park? If you're a groundball pitcher, do you want to pitch in Wrigley or the Astrodome? Home stadiums have enormous impacts on pitchers.

There. We'll see if the speed holds up during the busier times of day but right now, you should be seeing a huge improvement in site speed.

In a series between Boston and St Louis, I predict... Actually, I refuse to predict anything because I want them both to lose. *storms off*

You can thank all the bot-makers in China and Russia for the inexplicable slowdown during what should be the "slow" time of year. Bastards.

Thanks for the feedback everyone and this was a great idea for a thread, Glunn. As for the site speed, you may have noticed a slight increase in speed in the last hour. I've been combing through settings and logs, trying to eliminate useless or little-used functionality. Tonight, the site *may* go down for a bit. I'm taking a massive chunk out of the database and moving some data to a file system and away from the database. After that, I'll be working in the database, trimming some of the fat. Hopefully by tomorrow morning, our speed issues will no longer be a problem. If speed continues to be a problem, I'll be doing more work to the site and removing more superfluous features in the coming weeks.

It should only be the goal if you believe Hughes is the best pitcher you're going to field in the next 2-3 years. Let's hope that's not the case.