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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Too early to say. If Pelfrey drifts back to league average, it'll be easier to replace him and ease the rotation logjam that's coming. If he's still pitching lights-out in July and the Twins are still in the hunt, I think there's almost a zero percent chance he'll be traded. Remember that Santana cannot pitch in the playoffs this season. If the Twins look like a playoff contender, that will almost certainly factor into Ryan's decision.
  2. Yep. Going with your closer for a 4+ out save is a lot less necessary when you have nearly the same quality pitcher getting guys out in the eighth inning.
  3. Agreed. Not only does it make sense to trade down to stock the farm for 2020 and beyond but it's also a known preference of Terry Ryan to make those kinds of trades. If the Twins stay in contention in 2015, I expect to see a mix of trades over the next two years. Some trades to fill MLB holes (catcher), others to move players off the 40 man and retool the lower minors.
  4. That's not *entirely* true. Molitor seems more willing to bring Perkins into a game for more than one inning (he's done it twice this season) but the concept wasn't completely foreign to Gardenhire, either. Perkins pitched more than one inning four times during Gardenhire's final two seasons. It's a welcome move to aggressively use your closer in that manner but Gardy wasn't completely averse to doing it, either.
  5. I still don't believe in the White Sox. Overall, their team OPS is 27th in baseball. Just three teams - one from the AL - sit behind them. They've improved only marginally in May, posting the 23rd team OPS in baseball. Only three AL teams rank below them. The Whities play half their games in a bandbox. Their OPS needs to skyrocket before they even sniff contender status.
  6. The two emergent starters on the Twins this season have obviously been Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson. I was looking over their peripherals and noticed some interesting trends and wondered "is this Neil Allen's influence?" Here are the pitch selections for Pelfrey and Gibson. The first is their 2015 number, the second is the 2014 number. Pelfrey: 2015 - 2014 Fastball: 67.4% - 79.9% Slider: 10.6% - 8.1% Curve: 3.8% - 3.5% Split-Finger: 18.1% - 8.5% Pelfrey has cut way down on his fastball and replaced it with his slider and split-finger. His fastball is still below average (-7.1 runs last season, -1.4 this season) but he's throwing it less often. His split-finger has gone from a below average pitch to a very good pitch (-1.1 last season, +1.0 this season). The same goes for his slider (-1.4 last season, +1.3 this season). He's throwing his weakest pitch less often and has turned his complementary offers into plus pitches while throwing them more often. Gibson: 2015 - 2014 Fastball: 60.6% - 62.6% Slider: 17.8% - 21.8% Curve: 4.4% - 3.2% Change: 17.2% - 12.5% Gibson's pitch selection is almost certainly influenced by Neil Allen, a man well known to love the change. He's throwing his fastball and slider less and relying on the change more often. His fastball is close to a neutral pitch (-1.6 runs last season, -0.3 this season) but his slider has taken a big step backward (+6.3 last season, -2.0 this season). That has been offset by his improved change, which has gone from neutral to "holy ****" (+0.1 last season, +5.6 this season). His curve has also improved but he throws it so infrequently that I'm not sure it matters (-2.2 last season, +0.5 this season). We all know that Allen loves the change but it appears that in the case of Mike Pelfrey, he is pushing for a different solution. To me, that's an extremely positive sign, as one of the knocks against Anderson was that it appeared he tried to force every pitcher to take the same approach and fit the same mold. Something to watch as the season progresses, for sure.
  7. As much as it pains me to say this - and trust me, I'm wincing as I type this - the Twins cannot trade Mike Pelfrey if he continues to pitch like he has this season. The goal is to win baseball games and Pelfrey is helping the Twins do that every fifth night. At some point, you need to just keep your best players and try to win as many baseball games as possible. As unlikely as it seemed just six weeks ago, the Twins are in the position to win a lot of baseball games this season. On the other hand, there is still a lot of baseball left to be played before the deadline. A lot can and will happen during that time.
  8. It has flown under the radar but Mike Pelfrey's groundball rate now sits at an impressive 56% for the season. That's better than Kyle Gibson.
  9. There's a whole lot of conjecture and not a lot of fact in that post, jokin. We have absolutely no idea what kind of timetable - if any - the Twins have for Sano or Buxton. Both players got off to rocky starts and have turned it around in May. That means we have one pretty bad month and one very good month for both players. The Twins are probably playing it by ear and seeing what happens. They're certainly not going to publicly play a hand before they've made a decision and even if they've already made a decision, they have no reason to tell anyone about it. They gain nothing by giving the media a timetable on a prospect and quite a bit to lose if things don't go as planned.
  10. I think that's pretty obviously "no". Rochester is in first place and Ryan didn't hesitate to take both their centerfielders in a two week span.
  11. That's a pretty convenient way to downplay Sano's ability. The guy didn't play baseball for a year. He underwent elbow surgery. Unsurprisingly, his OPS In April was just .684. Then he shook off the rust. In May, his OPS is .970. The last time he played a full season, 2013, his OPS was .992 between two leagues. So yeah. Miguel Sano.
  12. I'm not sure why the only options for Plouffe seem to be "trade him" or "extend him". If the Twins are contending, a perfectly reasonable option is to go year-to-year with him and just let him walk, hopefully netting a comp pick in return if he's still a 4-ish WAR player in 2017. Sano might force a decision earlier than that but it's also possible that is the best option for the Twins.
  13. That's because the men are flawed in different, unique ways while the women mostly share the same emotional flaws. If the men falter, it's because they're usually flawed with extreme nobility or trust (Ned, Robb, Jon). If the women falter, it's because they can't get out of their own way. Obviously, there are exceptions to that statement but it's a theme that runs throughout the series to the point that I've put down the books more than once and hollered "Oh, COME ON." after a particularly aggravating scene. There is something to respect about virtually every male character in The Song of Ice and Fire series whether it's intelligence, nobility, or cleverness. I cannot say the same about the women. It's a theme that is prevalent in far too many fantasy series, which are usually written by old white men who always seem to have serious issues with women.
  14. Actually, I'd argue that all of those characters are pretty dense in their own ways. Cersei does incredibly stupid things. She's smart but she's so blinded by her emotions that she routinely does very stupid things (how woman-like of her!). Brienne is a fan favorite but she's closer to Hodor than Tywin in the brains department. Arya is a little kid. She's wily but still a kid. Sansa may no longer be stupid but she's still feckless, wallowing around and being led by the nose by basically everyone she encounters. I still hold a small amount of hope for Dani but she's been written as childish and petulant for the past few books. After hitting her stride in books two and three, she has slowly been diminished by Martin. Melissandre is the one character who is competent, female, and not hindered by her out of control female hormones. Margaery might get there but she's still mostly a background character. Opposite those less-than-stellar women, you have a brainy group of men. Tywin, who was incredibly adept at pretty much everything. Tyrion, who is a master trickster and extremely clever. Jaime is just kinda middling in smarts but he's turning into a moral compass of the series. Littlefinger, who is, again, extremely clever and hoodwinks pretty much every other character at one point or another. Varys is the man behind the curtain, orchestrating a revolution. Ned Stark was noble and just, not terribly bright but he had more redeeming qualities than you can shake a stick at. Robb Stark was a lesser version of Ned. Jon is a bit brighter than either of them but still holds the moral high ground over pretty much anybody else left standing at this point in the story. Stannis is a bit of an idiot but his Hand is extremely competent and pragmatic. Compare those two lists and tell me there isn't a problem here.
  15. Yeah, pretty much this. If Sano wasn't so frightening with the bat, I'd feel more strongly about letting him stay down to work on defense but he's so good with the stick that the moment you feel he's ready offensively, you jam him into the lineup wherever he'll fit.
  16. I've watched the Astros quite a bit this season (I've latched on to them as my second team to watch this year). They're more fundamentally sound than the Twins, in my opinion. They won't have too many five game losing streaks with that rotation and bullpen. They might not finish in first and they might not make the playoffs but I think over .500 is extremely likely.
  17. The Astros would have to play at a .439 clip for the rest of the season to finish under .500. Last season, they had a .432 winning percentage overall, a .455 winning percentage in the second half. In short, it's pretty unlikely the Astros finish under .500 in 2015 and it's incredibly unlikely that they are sellers at the deadline.
  18. Absolutely. Unwise is one thing; petulance and whining is something else entirely. In a cast chock full of unlikable characters, Martin needs to throw his readers a bone now and again. Give us someone we want to see win. This isn't a biopic about Nazi Germany, it's a friggin' fantasy series.
  19. Berrios has to be one of the first MiLB promotions when the Twins feel the time is right to start shuffling players up and down the minor league system. He's embarrassing hitters in the Southern League.
  20. Yeah, lots of guys should be available as we roll into June and July, though I think the chances of the Astros sliding out of contention is really low. They're a very good team.
  21. Yeah, Molitor just talked about how he wants to return to seven bullpen arms soon. I think it was in yesterday's game notes on MLB.com.
  22. Gibson was a pretty typical #4 last season and he's getting very different results this season while his peripherals have been on the upswing over the past month. I don't how anyone can classify Gibson as a #4 at this point. His K/BB ratio went from a 0.5 (ugghhhh) in April to a 4.2 in May. Everything is trending in the right direction for the guy.
  23. I think Stauffer gets the boot when Fein returns.
  24. Back with the Twins? I hope not. The Twins have a glut of outfielders they need to put on the field in Minnesota. Back with another team? I think that's likely, provided he keeps hitting.
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