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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, maybe, but we already have those stats on FanGraphs. The problem I see is that we're not normal baseball fans. Getting people to accept an arbitrary stat that has no real world definition will be a struggle. I mean, we can't get announcers to stop talking about batting average and RBI. And that's why I like the Goose Egg stat. It's a neatly bundled stat that is close enough to the save statistic to not be rejected out of hand.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    It's useful in that it tells us Tonkin is a low leverage reliever. But use someone like Kintzler instead. He qualified for 23 Goose Eggs last season versus 20 save attempts. Will all relievers qualify for a bunch of goose egg opportunities? No, of course not... because there are some parameters on the goose egg, they're simply not as nonsensically dogmatic by inning and number of outs. Which means some throwaway "saves" won't count but some important 7th and 8th inning outings will count. And isn't that the original intent of the save statistic in the first place? To try to give value to relievers and give them credit for helping their team win baseball games? It seems to me the goose egg strikes a pretty good balance between a counting stat and being more useful than the save statistic.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Hah, the other night my wife said "You love Star Wars, we should go there if it opens." I replied "You know, I love Star Wars but I don't need to spend thousands to see a commercialized experience of something I dearly love. I'd rather go to Nova Scotia or somewhere I've never been." She said "Yeah, your idea sounds better."
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Typical non-IT guy, always confusing apathy with laziness.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Be wary of glancing at any player who posted numbers while wearing a Rockies jersey. In 2015, he posted a 99 OPS+ overall. Decent, right? Well, maybe... or maybe not. Paulsen had just 354 PAs in 2015 so we're already dealing with a moderately small sample size and that sample size becomes even more problematic when you start splitting it. Paulsen had an .847 OPS at home, just .718 on the road. In typical Colorado fashion, part of that was powered by a .293 home batting average and a .258 road batting average. But where things get really confusing is the BABIP: .352 at home, .351 on the road. So, despite Paulsen posting just a .718 road OPS, he used a .351 BABIP to get there. You expect the Colorado BABIP to be high but the fact he posted kinda bad numbers on the road with that BABIP should set off alarm bells. How good was Paulsen in 2015? My answer is "not very". Add in his defense and I don't see him being anything but a liability. As an added bonus, in 2015 Paulsen had an extreme L/R split in favor of RHP (though his career numbers are mixed with an extremely SSS against LHP, the guy has spent his career protected against LHP). The Twins already have a bunch of guys who can hit RHP. They need bats against LHP.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    No idea. Tracking which post was 500,000th would be a pain in the ass. The database tracks posts in order, giving them a numerical value from one onward. But posts are deleted, particularly spam posts. According to the database, the 500,000th post would have been something like 506,382. Whereas the post we see listed on the forum index removes those deleted posts and just spits out a counting number.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    That's probably pretty close. We were averaging about 100k posts per year for the first few years but now it's somewhere around 130-150k posts per year. 400k posts in about three years should be close, if not a bit on the conservative side.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I looked it up once but can't remember. I think it was a post from John, probably testing or introductory.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Wow. This is exactly the 600,000th post on this site. Crazy, isn't it?
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't like the insistence that Molitor stick around. That irked me. The POBO should make that call. On the other hand, given Molitor's apparent willingness to try new things this season, I'm skeptical he's the actual problem. I've actually liked most of Molitor's moves this season, even some of the moves that failed.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair. I have no problems with people saying Duffey should get another shot at starting, as the situation is pretty murky. But 2015 didn't prove anything to us one way or the other. Nor did 2016, for that matter. Personally, I'd keep him in the pen right now because this team can't even seem to get Jose Berrios in their rotation. I'm not willing to punt on Berrios in favor of Duffey, who *should* be a solid bullpen arm given his profile.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, elegant is one way to put it... Mostly, I view them as having different roles. Sometimes, I want to say Eddie Rosario has an 80.3% contact rate, swings at 43.7% of pitches out of the zone, 78.4% of pitches in the zone, and is hamstrung by a .213 BABIP. Other times, I just want to say Eddie Rosario has a .621 OPS. In some situations, the deep dive leads to better, more nuanced analysis. In other situations, you just want to keep it (somewhat) superficial and talk about results. There is no right answer for all situations.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Duffey had four starts pre-expansion in 2015. His performance was somewhere between holding his own and a little bit bad. But that doesn't really matter to me (pre- or post-expansion). What matters to me is putting too much weight in a pitcher entering MLB and having a dozen or so good starts. Hitters haven't seen that pitcher. Film hasn't been collected on the guy. No notebooks are collated with his pitching tendencies. He's the baseball version of the technology industry's "security through obscurity" rule. Maybe that guy is succeeding because he's good. Maybe that guy is succeeding because no one is ready for him. Either way, I'm not going to draw a conclusion when the reason for his success is muddy. To anyone who wants to point to Duffey's 2015 success as proof of anything, I will simply reply "Scott Diamond".
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes. There is plenty of room for different stats. Imagine you're in a broadcast booth. Now try to explain what WPA means because saying the number 2.1 doesn't mean squat to the audience. Was that in 31 appearances or 65 appearances? How many innings pitched? What is the player's typical role out of the bullpen, fifth or eighth inning? The number, on its own, means virtually nothing. It's super-useful for a deeper analysis and comparison of performance but not good for on-the-fly talking. Whereas counting stats have their use in the quick-and-dirty analysis that often happens on live radio/television. When a guy is pitching to a batter, the announcer doesn't have time to spend 90 seconds explaining to the audience all the situations that led to that 2.1 WPA. But saying "Tonkin has 21 Goose Eggs and 4 Broken Eggs" gives you lots of information in just ten words.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh hush. I commented in your thread. I know it exists. Jeremy wanted to write a piece about it, obviously... Which is why this thread exists. Lots of people only read the front page of Twins Daily. Others only read the forum.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The Goose Egg is almost exactly what I wanted to see but I never did the legwork myself to drill down into the situations where the stat should "activate". I'm glad someone finally did that in what appears to be a relatively simple but accurate way.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Homage is fine but when I feel like I'm watching the same movie I've seen before, it becomes a problem for me.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I've been waiting for someone to create a good counting stat to rate relievers for 15 years and the Goose Egg is the best I've seen. I hope someone like Fangraphs picks it up and gives it traction.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm curious to see how the Adrianza thing plays out. I'd be tempted to replace Santana with him but that doesn't really fix any problems, as Santana has been an outfielder, Escobar looks fine as a backup, and Adrianza can't hit his way out of a paper bag.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    But that's not how it works. Teams don't just add to the 40-man willy-nilly. They try to strike a balance, especially in the middle of a season because what happens if two starters go down in the next two weeks? Or three relievers in a month? It's not exactly a simple thing to jettison players off the 40-man on demand, particularly if you've added too many players at a single position and are unwilling to cut any of them at any given moment. Adding a handful of no position, all bat guys to your 40-man is a good way to put yourself in the position to make uncomfortable decisions as you realize you've backed yourself into a corner. So if you can avoid adding Park to the 40-man, you simply do that. If/when someone goes down, is cut, or whatever, then you reconsider.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Indeed. People who become part of the top 1% in the world at their particular craft often lack mental toughness. Now let me shuffle off to my entirely middle class life, comfortable in the knowledge that it took true grit to get there.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    But obviously not their bullpen.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    In situations such as these, the question to ask is: Will this player be picked up on waivers? Rosario wouldn't clear a single team on waivers. Not one. That tells you rather matter-of-factly whether it's reasonable to cut a player.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    A combination of Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, and Mike Trout, apparently. All Sano needs to do is play an up-the-middle position better than anyone in history, hit 74 homers in a season, keep the batting average at .407 or above, never miss a pitch he swings at, and throw a complete game shutout every fifth day. At that point, at least 98% of Twins fans will be on board with the guy.
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