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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It should be kept in mind that Gordon is, once again, fading hard in the second half. He should not be in Minnesota this season. AAA? Maybe. Sure.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    How on earth am I moving the goalposts? I'll boil it down as simply as I can: The Twins have drafted badly at the top of drafts. If I'm being generous, they've drafted below average at the top of the draft. Inversely, the Twins have drafted very well further down the board. When I combine those two elements, I see an acceptable, if underwhelming, draft methodology. If the Twins drafted so well, how did they manage to assemble a mid-pack farm system after picking second, fourth, fifth, and sixth in consecutive seasons? The only every day regulars/starting pitchers to graduate thus far have been Buxton (a disappointment) and Berrios (a very good starter). The rest of the pack has been pretty meh, if not outright disappointments. Outside of Gordon, they don't even have a top prospect from the first round of any of those drafts.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    If even one of Jay or Stewart is pitching like Gonsalves right now, the Twins' drafts look a whole lot better. I've been following the draft for a long time and I know not to expect every first round pick to pan out... But the Twins haven't had a single first pick play anywhere close to their ceiling yet. The only guy who looks like he might do that is Gordon and he's still probably 12 months away from Minnesota. Obviously, Buxton might turn into that guy at some point but thus far, he's been a big disappointment.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Seriously, it feels like you're trolling me right now. I'm just going to copy and paste the second paragraph from two posts ago: "I'm not even saying the Twins have drafted badly, as they've acquired some nice pieces further down the draft board but their first round picks have been mostly underwhelming, which is a problem when you're picking at the top of the draft on a regular basis."
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    One cannot give up more than three earned runs in a quality start, it doesn't matter how many innings you pitch... Which is one of the flaws of the QS stat. A guy could theoretically go 9 IP with 4 ER and not get a QS, despite pitching a better game than a 6 IP, 3 ER "Quality Start".
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Jay has moved back to the bullpen. Stewart continues to post pedestrian peripherals. The likelihood that either will be a significant contributor to the rotation is approaching zero. That leaves Buxton (an immense disappointment thus far), Gordon (something of a bright spot this season), and Kiriloff (injured). Are we really arguing that those are good results? Because they look pretty disappointing to me. Four consecutive top six picks and the Twins haven't gotten league average starter performance out of any of them yet, with two of them looking as if that's incredibly unlikely at this point in their careers.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I learned a long time ago to ignore any and all Radke comps. Brad Radke was a very good pitcher without great stuff. He pitched to his absolute ceiling, which should never be used as a basis of comparison to a prospect because literally any player has a remote chance of playing to their absolute ceiling.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Are they, though? The Twins picked sixth or higher four times (not including the 2017 draft) and have yet to produce a league average starter (either positional or pitching) from those picks. Gordon has a chance to become that guy and while Buxton *should* be better than he is right now, he's... not. I'm not even saying the Twins have drafted badly, as they've acquired some nice pieces further down the draft board but their first round picks have been mostly underwhelming, which is a problem when you're picking at the top of the draft on a regular basis.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, I take into account their success but when you get right down to it, this team has picked second, fourth, fifth, sixth, fifteenth, and first over the past six years. And their pitching pipeline is, at best, mediocre. Once Berrios graduated, there were no pitching stars in the system behind him. I simply cannot call that drafting "very good". They've done a pretty good job with hitting prospects but this rotation should be better than it is today and the guys in the high minors look like contributors but there aren't any eye-popping prospects in there. And a big reason for that gap in talent is because they missed badly on both Stewart and Jay. Hit on just one of those guys and the MLB rotation looks a lot more promising than it does right now.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Please call up Gonsalves. Please.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, it's hard to pull off this kind of deal if you never make a trade before July 31st.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, no one hits with 100% accuracy but they essentially did the exact same thing two years later. I can't call their drafting "very good" at that point.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    My point was that if you want to trade high on Rosario, sure, let's do that. But there shouldn't be a question whether Rosario is more valuable than Granite. He is. He's a better player. He has been since he was drafted. Rosario is a tweener, maybe a starter, maybe a backup. Granite is likely a backup. And that's what bothers me about the current tone of the board. Too many are acting as if Granite is better than Rosario and not questioning whether he's a starter at all. Rosario is a questionable starter, Granite is a pretty clear backup.* *obviously, Granite could turn into something special, but so could any player, see Brian Dozier
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, but ask yourself a question: Who do you see as a more significant contributor to the Twins, Granite or Rosario? I don't believe that's a difficult question to answer.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Man, it fascinates me how much this board overrates Granite. Yeah, he had a good half season in the minors. Maybe that sticks in MLB but his track record is pretty spotty. On the other hand, do you know who had an .825 OPS in the minors? Eddie Rosario.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    That is a very light-hitting outfield.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Neither Cleveland nor Kansas City has lost in ten days. Do not acquire any more players. Sell off what you can.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Are you kidding me? I listen to Provus whenever possible. It wouldn't be fine, it'd be a vast improvement.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    It seems to me that casual fans are getting a crash course on why shifting for every hitter isn't a great idea.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Please share your work. I'm skeptical but not trying to bait you. I'm honestly curious about your methodology.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Not only that but the number of Twins relievers coming out of Spring Training who were a virtual lock to perform at or above average levels was literally zero. As it turned out, Kintzler is still truckin', Duffey has turned into a somewhat reliable arm, and Rogers is a (mostly) pleasant surprise but if you can't find room for one reliable arm in a bullpen of seven to eight pitchers, you're simply not trying... like, at all.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't see it that way. Now Santana is entering the range where almost any team could take on his salary without seriously hurting their payroll for 2+ seasons, which increases his value a little. 2.5 years + vesting option at ~$13m per season is a risk. 1.5 years + vesting option at ~$13m per season is considerably less risk. If he's still performing, you snag that option and get an extra year but your actual risk is under $20m if things go wrong. I know if I was running a win now team, I'd look more favorably on 1.5 + 1 years of control over the risk of 2.5 + 1 years of control.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't believe their drafting can be classified as "very good" when they've swung and missed at two pitchers drafted in the top six picks.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't have a lot to complain about with the new front office but this is easily my biggest gripe, one that isn't really up for debate, IMO.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Is Santana's value lower, the same, or higher than it was one year ago? I'm inclined to believe it's slightly higher. I don't think it's lower, that's for sure.
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