Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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The front office better aim higher than that.
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The Brian Dozier Trade That Almost Was
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Neither is Dozier's. -
The Brian Dozier Trade That Almost Was
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To frame it differently: At this point, what's the difference between De Leon and Alex Meyer? And while I wasn't a big fan of the Meyer trade, he was almost an afterthought in the system when he was traded because he had crossed age 25 and couldn't pitch more than 130 innings a season. Talent only matters if you're on the field and an oft-injured stellar player can actually be a detriment to a team if his replacement is way below average (which is usually the case with starting pitchers). -
Absolutely. You don't become one of the five best people at your profession by being milquetoast. Joe Mauer has an ego and wants to succeed (and thinks he can), just like every other athlete at the top of their game.
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This is the way I remember it as well. Did Mauer bitch? Not that I can recall... but I vaguely remember a typical Mauer "aw shucks, I really like playing catcher and would like to keep doing it but oh golly, I guess that's no longer going to happen", which is the Joe Mauer equivalent of a normal player holding a press conference and dropping f-bombs in protest.
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The Brian Dozier Trade That Almost Was
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes, this. As I said at the time of the trade discussions, maybe De Leon isn't an injury risk... or maybe he is. But he gets a knock for never pitching more than 115 innings in a season and this season was even worse. If he was in the Twins org right now, people would be screaming bloody murder, and rightly so. All pitching prospects are questions marks. Pitching prospects who have barely crossed a half season of MLB innings at age 25, even moreso. Remember that De Leon is one year older than Berrios except the Minnesota Jose has pitched more than 115 innings four times in his career (and came close a fifth year). -
It used to be the Angels because I worked a few blocks from Edison/Angel Stadium. But that was nearly ten years ago. I just kinda follow up-and-coming teams now with little preference.
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This is why I kinda leaned toward going all-prospects in the deal. If the Pirates are looking to offload Cole, it's likely they want to also move other players like McCutchen and go full rebuild.
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Agreed. Rosario's will fluctuate even moreso because he's a gambler on the basepaths. That player is going to get burned on occasion but he also makes some outstanding plays that don't count in any metric (like coaxing a balk while standing on third, which he did this season).
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Another reason I prefer fWAR. It just seems to align more with what I see on the field. Kepler (1.2 fWAR) was quite a bit below Rosario (2.5 fWAR).
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The key difference being that Archer has actually pitched those innings and hasn’t gone down and been replaced with a subpar pitcher for an average of 30-40 innings a season.
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Yes. DeGrom would require a package I'd be unwilling to pay. It would either cost a quality MLB player plus prospects or a complete looting of the farm. I'd much rather see the Twins aim for someone with a reasonable price tag and some upside, like Cole. With this offense, the Twins don't need a shutdown rotation, they simply need a not terrible rotation.
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If you could get him for Kepler and Gonsalves, I'd do that. Probably Kepler and Gordon is reasonable, really. If Rosario is in the package, I'd probably do Rosario and Gonsalves. If you could get him for Gordon and Gonsalves, I'd do that twice on Sunday.
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But it wasn't Rosario for Cole. It was Rosario (or Kepler), Gordon (a top 50 prospect), and Mejia (a 4/5 with six years of control) for Cole. That offer is in the ballpark if Cole was a perennial 5.5 WAR player like he was a few years back but that year looks to be an outlier. Outside of that single season, Cole's high water mark in fWAR is around 3.0. That's complementary player territory, not upper tier.
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84 PAs is pretty meaningless. It’s three weeks of ball. I’m not knocking Garver because if he can catch, those numbers look good. But as a DH? Nah. Remember, Chris Parmelee put up something like a 1.100 OPS in ~250 MiLB plate appearances at one point. If Garver is going to DH, he’ll have to get there like Mauer (ie. his bat is so good behind the plate you can’t keep him out of the lineup). And I’m incredibly skeptical that will happen.
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Considering how Cole was worth just half a win more than Rosario in 2017, that would certainly get it done. Inversely, the Twins would be lunatics for even considering that package.
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No, he wasn't. He was a pretty good player, one who crossed 4 WAR all of once in his career. Brian Dozier - a borderline elite player if you're generous about the title - has virtually the same career fWAR as Stewart and he hasn't even hit free agency yet.
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Yeesh. It's hard to see the Twins being a better team after making that trade. You've basically replaced a 3-4 WAR player with a 4-5 WAR player (if you squint). Except the player you gave away has 4-5 years of control versus 2-3 years of control for the player you acquired. That's bad baseball management, the kind of move that should get a front office fired.
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I don't understand. When he had a .750 OPS in Chattanooga?
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Nailed it. I do not want the Twins to emulate the Royals, as I think they backed into some of their success. They built a model of a dominant bullpen almost on accident. I'm not against the Twins making a trade to shore up an immediate weakness (even a big trade) but looking to KC for inspiration is looking at results, not process in my opinion.
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While I hope Garver becomes dominant, he had all of ~325 good plate appearances in AAA. He was entirely pedestrian before that point (and has been old for his level every step of the way). His track record isn't very good, it's just at a peak right now.
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It's not that deep right now but I suspect it will continue to climb the ladder over the next 12-14 months. I think the farm system is in pretty good shape and would be in favor of trading a few prospects for immediate help.
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Regression and Progression in 2018
Brock Beauchamp replied to strumdatjaguar's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
1. Santana was worse in some of the things he could control this season (K rate, for example) and much better in the things he doesn't have much control over (BABIP, for example). 2. Being worried about a player's impending decline and not seeing it happen in a specific season does not invalidate the concern. All players age, though not at the same rate. Maybe Santana is one of those guys who is effective until he's 36 years old. Maybe his arm falls off this season. It's something to consider at the very least, especially on a team with little pitching that expects to contend again. If you find enough pitchers where Santana works out be be #3 (or hopefully, #4) on this team in 2018, it's less of a concern. -
I think May can help next year, though I doubt it happens before July. Unfortunately, he'll need innings in those first three months and I'm not really comfortable with that idea.
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How I feel about this is very complex. I'll just leave it at that.
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