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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    This is how I feel as well. You won't find a breakout/recovery guy on the cheap if you don't try. But that breakout/recovery guy is not a replacement for signing a legit arm as well.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    The second season was actually better than the first season. Huh. Didn't see that coming.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, projection models don't work well for outliers. On the other hand, expecting Buxton to be +25 on defense may be unreasonable. He'll likely rule MLB for a few seasons but outstanding defense tends to age out quickly in my experience. We might only get "best defender in MLB" Buxton through his age 25 season or so... and that's IF he stays on the field. 2017 could easily be Buxton's defensive peak. The good thing is that he has a lot of room to improve offensively (and even on the basepaths, as his success rate will likely drop but his overall attempts should grow quite a bit).
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Or Scott Kazmir. Or Jake Arrieta. Those kind of rebound/breakout pitchers aren't terribly uncommon, the trick is identifying them.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough. Somehow I missed that Darvish pitched only 100 innings one season and didn't adjust his stats to reflect those limited appearances.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I don't know how Darvish turned into an elite arm. He's marginally better than Ervin Santana and I'd put Santana in the third tier of pitching, maybe the bottom of the second tier if I was feeling generous.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Thorpe pitched around 75 innings last season. He's not on the table for a 2018 callup. The weird thing is that despite all his injuries and ailments, the dude is still only 21 years old. His birthday is in a few days.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    It seems to me like there's a bit of a strawman fight happening in this thread. Is anyone saying "don't spend money"? Is anyone saying "Darvish or bust"? If anyone is arguing either point, they're probably wrong. What I want is for the Twins to improve and spend money in the process. How they get there... well, there are several right answers, I only hope the front office picks the best option.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Thanks for all the fish.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    True, but even Clayton Kershaw had a kinda bad postseason in ~35 IP and I don't think there's anyone who will argue that he's not the best pitcher in baseball.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I disagree. Small sample sizes almost always lead to bad decisions when they override piles of more substantial data. But I agree that it's easy to fall into the allure of paying exorbitant money for that One Pitcher To Rule Them All. It's possible, maybe even likely, that spending top dollar for a pitcher is a bad use of resources and that spreading money out over more middling free agents in hopes one of them clicks is the way to go (I'm not talking dumpster diving, though).
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    You're reading too much into 3.1 World Series innings. Darvish was very good in both the NLCS and NLDS. Small sample sizes abound, naturally.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    *winces*
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    It seems to me that May would slot in nicely as the long man for the first few months of the season to get a read on where his breaking stuff is in 2018. Besides, need to keep his innings down anyway. If he's showing progress in July, consider moving him to the rotation.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    And defense would almost certainly be a downgrade with Dozier at the hot corner. Remember Trevor Plouffe? Most guys can't just pick up third base in Spring Training. Plouffe spent most of his MiLB career at short and was absolutely terrible at third base when he hit the majors.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    As would I.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Saying a bunch of 25-and-younger players taking a step forward is flukey... Okay, sure, buddy. The Twins have problems, for sure, but their 2017 wasn't flukey by more than a handful of games. At worst, they were a .500 team that was a little bit lucky.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm willing to trade anyone not named Berrios, Buxton, or Sano if it brings back pitching. Though I'd prefer to move a corner outfielder before I moved Polanco, seeing how I don't believe the Twins should retain Dozier past 2018. Jorge can slide over to second base while Gordon takes short.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, FIP excludes all non true outcome balls, which assumes a normalization of those balls. I'm not sure that's accurate given the Twins outfield defense and the pitching staff's general flyball tendencies.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, and 2018 should shake out to be a very good season for the Twins if the front office makes the right moves. They were 19th in ERA and 25th in FIP (which I believe is a bit misleading because Buxton). Kinda bad, but not without hope. Gibson made some strides late in the season. The bullpen wasn't atrocious late in the season. Chargois and Jay might be ready pretty early in the season. Gonsalves and Romero might be ready pretty early in the season. May will be back, though I don't count on him for much coming back from TJ (though with a good fastball, he might be serviceable). Pick up a decent starter and a decent reliever and this team could be a legitimate contender out of the gate. This offense, powered by a full season Buxton, could have them sniffing 90 wins if the front office plays the right hand.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    One thing Ryan doesn't get enough credit for pulling off is drafting/signing two waves of talent. It's incredibly hard to do and that's why the Twins were so good for so long. The first wave hit its stride in 2001 and as many of them were leaving in 2005, the second wave hit and kept the team in contention until 2010. On top of that, the run should have lasted until 2011-12 but the team ran into an amazing stretch of absolutely **** injury luck. That's a hell of a run. It didn't end up with a trophy but it's a hell of an accomplishment for a small market team (which the Twins were at the time, playing in the dome).
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The point is that it's hard to trade Santana for pitching that will help within the next 36 months (or 24 months moving the timeline back a year). It's a great idea in theory but in practice, it would be incredibly difficult to pull off, if not impossible. If a team has young pitching close to the majors, they're not going to trade those pieces for a veteran pitcher. They'll just lean on the good, young arm that they control for the next seven seasons. So you're trading a 3-ish WAR pitcher for a few prospects that are a few years away. What do you do in the meantime as Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, et al are accruing service time? By the time this hypothetical pitcher is ready, all those guys would be at 4+ years of service time, at the minimum. If you want good pitching, you're going to have to either give up prospects or open the wallet. Trading pitching for pitching between contenders isn't really an option.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    These three paragraphs don't make much sense alongside one another. I was open to a Santana trade last winter. I wasn't shocked the front office held on to him but I thought exploring a trade was a solid idea, at the very least. But then the Twins won 85 games, 10-11 more than I expected, so what do I know? Trading Santana and then picking up "good young starters" isn't going to happen. If a team has a good young starter, why do they want Santana? If the starter is 3+ years away from MLB, how does that help the Twins? Pitching for pitching deals don't usually work if both teams are trying to compete in the next two seasons. Never mind that even if Santana declines, he's still likely a 3/4 in the Twins rotation for the next one or two seasons. Given the rotation and pitching depth, that's badly needed on this team. The position players aren't getting younger and they're burning service time by the day. The Twins can't wait for a guy to graduate to Minnesota in 2020, they need guys who can help immediately.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I doubt it as well but thought it might be a first for the reason (pitching) you listed. There are several black hitting coaches but few pitching coaches.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes and yes. A strong side platoon is barely a platoon at all. It's half pinch-hitting, half platoon with a guy who can kinda hit lefties and kinda man the position. With that said, Kepler has to post an OPS north of .500 or he's in trouble. I think he will but it'll take reps. Not a lot. I doubt he'll ever hit lefties over a .700 OPS but that's okay. Most lefties suck against lefties. He just needs to do enough that he's not an automatic out against LHP.
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