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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Two teams were over .500 but four other teams were basically in the same position as the Twins (but weren't collapsing at the time). To expect none of them to make a run is pretty unreasonable. To add to the problem, the Twins were in the position of having the worst pitching staff outside Baltimore. It's reasonable to lament the Kintzler trade somewhat but it wasn't some huge mis-step by the front office. If you had 50 games left to play and a bunch of mediocre teams in the mix, who do you pick to come out on top? It's not the team with a terrible pitching staff and one that is reeling, losing games in both the division and Wild Card by the day. The Twins were coming off two losing months and a terrible two week stretch of play. They were 46-44 on July 15th and closed out the month at 50-53.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    What basis do you have for that statement? For the Twins to clinch yesterday, it required seven teams to fold down to the stretch. Not four of seven, which is what you'd expect. Not five of seven, which is still reasonable. All seven teams. Here are the records on the morning of August 1st followed by the records from August 1 through today: Seattle: 54-53 / 23-29 Tampa Bay: 54-53 / 22-29 Kansas City: 55-49 / 23-31 (ouch) Texas: 50-55 / 26-27 Toronto: 49-57 / 26-27 Los Angeles: 51-55 / 27-25 (hey, a winning record!) Baltimore: 51-54 / 24-30 Minnesota: 50-53 / 33-22 One team out of eight made a legitimate run and it happened to be the team that was playing terrible baseball on July 31st. Sometimes that happens but it's not a flaw in analysis to fail to predict something unlikely to happen. The team with the worst pitching staff amongst contenders (non-Orioles edition) somehow went on a stretch run that defied any and all expectations. Again, it happens but it's not something you predict because baseball is crazy.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that's being generous. People continue to ignore just how unlikely the events of August and September were in retrospect. At the deadline, there were eight legitimate contenders for the second Wild Card (as we basically knew the Yankees were going to get in unless something devastating happened to them): SEA, BAL, MIN, KC, LAA, TEX, TOR, TB For Minnesota to get into the postseason - a Minnesota team that was reeling at the deadline and falling backward by the day - it required all seven teams to fold down the stretch. None of them are going to finish the season over .500. That's absurd. No one should or would have predicted that to happen. The odds of that happening are... Well, I don't even know. I don't think I've seen it happen in baseball before this season. Of course, it happened. The Twins are in. But if you think betting on the Hail Mary is a good long-term play, I'd prefer you not run the baseball team I follow every season.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, got it. I think he’s a very good #3 but can see why you’d feel differently.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Whew. Lindor is lucky he didn’t hurt himself there. Ugly.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Brian Dozier. He's the guy who spoke out about the trade deadline and responded not only with his mouth but also his bat, smacking 16 home runs in August and September and posting a .966 OPS during that same span. I usually avoid allowing intangibles to cloud the stat line but this is a pretty clear cut example of a team leader putting his money where his mouth is, IMO.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, they countered by having a top three offense instead of top five. And Hildenberger stepped in to shore up a middle of the pack (if you squint, but a mostly bad, really) pitching staff. And it's kind of unfair to classify Berrios as a #4. He has a 3.86 FIP and a 113 ERA+. That's a very good #3 at minimum.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Four books into the Dresden Files series. Solid but not spectacular genre stuff.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think it's really fair to say they've underperformed twice because the 2017 squad is going to end up with a better record than the 2015 squad, which overperformed their metrics by a bunch (like 10+ wins IIRC). That 2015 squad may have won 83 games but they played like a low- to mid-70s win team. And the 2016 squad, while they regressed, played like a high 60s win team IIRC. The 2017 squad is better than the 2015 squad and by more than a little bit. They should end up roughly ten games better based on actual play.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll definitely keep watching Discovery. It didn't really hook me - too early in the character arcs to really get behind - and the main character (Michael) starts off more unlikeable than I'd like to see. But, like all Fuller shows, Discovery is very well written. That in itself will keep me tuned in for awhile.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not going to be too upset either way but I think it's unfair to say they win despite him. Do the Twins win despite Molitor's in-game management? I think one could make that argument and I'd agree with it. But there's a lot that goes into managing that isn't in-game decisions. And Molitor's teams have overperformed twice and underperformed once. He's doing something right, I'd say.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Now see, I’d like to read that article.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    He has no opinion, he doesn't back up either side of the "debate" with any real information, it's a pointless question that's entirely subjective. In that context, it seems like a pretty dumb question to me.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    There you go. I was having a hard time nailing down what I didn't like about the article and that's it. He doesn't really say anything of substance and poses a dumb question. It's like a bad op-ed piece you see in a local newspaper.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, his math seemed a bit off there. I’m surprised he’s still so low on Buxton’s bat, though. His wrc+ will likely end up ~93-95.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Was thinking about this last night, thanks.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Thanks. I suspected it was Sullivan but wasn’t sure.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Does anyone remember which FG writer said the Twins were the team furthest from contention last year? I thought the statement was dumb at the time but now it’s absolutely idiotic.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I don’t get why people are upset about the article. I don’t think it’s very good because it doesn’t really say much but that’s no reason to be angry about it.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Finally read the Sullivan article and... was he drunk? What was the point of that piece? I take no offense from it but I don’t understand why it exists. Lots of mediocre teams have won it all, even before the second WC... hell, before the WC at all.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    This Buxton kid might end up being pretty good.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    He dances with being a capable reliever but simply didn't have the stuff for starting.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Both Pavano and Liriano held their own in the 2010 postseason. The Yankee starters outperformed them only marginally. It was Duensing who collapsed on the mound, most likely because he's Brian Duensing.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I do not want to see Buxton leading off. Too much power, same as Dozier.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't worry about it too much for a few reasons: 1. The Verducci Effect has largely been disproven. Sure, overuse can hurt a pitcher but there's no hard and fast rule how much, how quickly might hurt a guy. 2. Berrios has been a workhorse since he was drafted. 3. Berrios pitched 170 innings last season. If he's not ready for a full season workload now, he'll never be ready.
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