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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Santana should not be the starting shortstop. Escobar should not be in left field, which is where a large portion of that negative WAR comes from. 2/3rds of Escobar's 2015 innings have come in LF, which is beyond aggravating. He has the equivalent of about 15 games at short this season (begins pounding face on desk because just typing that number is so aggravating). Last season, Escobar was a 2.5 WAR player in 2/3rds of a season. So, yeah. Absolutely preposterous, Dave.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not really the problem with players coming out of Coors. It's the batting average. Larry Walker had this same issue. Tulo's home/road BA difference: .047 Moving him out of the NL West is not going to improve his batting average. Hell, last season the Rockies team had almost a full .100 batting average difference in their home/road splits. This season it's still around .070-.080.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely, but it's not much (if any) more difficult than trying to negotiate a trade for Tulo. Catchers are out there, the Twins just have to make sure they're first in line at the discussion table.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    It's about opportunity cost. The Twins need Berrios because their rotation isn't young enough or good enough yet and after Jose, there's no help on the horizon for at least 12 months, probably more like 24 months. The Twins also have a handful of decent, though unspectacular, shortstops. One of them should be able to fill the void for a year or two. If we were talking about a good catcher, Berrios is definitely on the table because the Twins have other starting pitching prospects but absolutely zero legitimate catching prospects. But for a 30 year old shortstop? No, I don't think that's a good use of resources. Tulo may be a 5 WAR player but a 2 WAR catcher has the same net effect for the Minnesota Twins and there's zero chance the catching situation will improve in 2015 or 2016 unless Pinto magically stops being awful behind the dish. So go find a catcher. Chances are it might not even cost you Berrios. You might be able to get it done for Kepler + stuff. You make the same net team improvement but you get to keep your "big three" in the process and you're not on the hook for nearly $100m during a decline phase.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Sano has a sprained ankle and 53 MLB PAs. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The kid will be good but let's see how he does when MLB pitchers start throwing him nothing but junk. Gibson, Hughes, and May are a completely underwhelming playoff rotation. Couple that rotation with the "OMG, please pitch a CGSO" bullpen and you have a one-and-done recipe.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    If only money was involved, I'd be all over Tulo. But it's not only money. It's $94m plus one of Sano, Buxton, or Berrios (barring any ridiculous magic tricks pulled by Ryan). That's a price I'm not willing to pay on a team that I feel is more pretender than contender.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't want to make the playoffs, I want to win in the playoffs. This Twins team doesn't have much over 100 PAs from their two top 10 prospects. Their best chance of winning in the playoffs is by keeping their best young players and letting them mature. This team is a few games UNDER .500 over the past 6-8 weeks. Every player who matters is under control in 2016. This is not yet a solid team. It's a lucky team with significant flaws. If Buxton and Sano thrive and turn into solid players, I'm all for banking a few prospects for a Tulo type player but right now, it seems really premature, especially when you have to give up one of Buxton, Sano, or Berrios to get Tulo in the first place.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Playing to win only makes sense when you feel you have a solid foundation, not because you're eight games over .500 largely due to luck and good timing. If the Twins pick up Tulo, they still don't have a competent playoff rotation, they still have huge question marks in the outfield and DH, and they still have a giant blackhole at catcher. If anything, all of those problems are worse because you had to give up so much to get Tulo in the first place. He's a good player and I'd love to see the Twins acquire someone of his ability but the team is too flawed and the price too great to pull the trigger on that move in 2015. I mean, if they can somehow manage to convince the Rockies to take a bunch of expendable players in the deal (Meyer, Polanco, Kepler), then yeah, you do that... but that's not reality. The price for Tulo is going to start with Buxton, Sano, or Berrios. That's too steep a price on a flawed Twins team. They need those pieces to round out all those flaws.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Tulo is a great player but I see a lot of downside in him and not much upside. He's in his age 30 season. As a shortstop, that's getting a little long in the tooth. Unsurprisingly, defensive metrics aren't a fan of a 30 year old shortstop. From 2007-2011, Tulo had a +77 DRS. That's great! From 2012-2015, it's +6. Good but definitely not anything close to great. Tulo has a .958 home OPS and an .819 road OPS for his career. Shocking. He's very good outside Coors Field but he's far from great. His home numbers are skewing the overall perception of him as a player and that's not even factoring in diminishing returns as he ages through his 30s. He is guaranteed $94m through 2020 with a $15m option for 2021. He will be 36 years old at that point. Again, Tulo is a great player right now. I don't think the Twins should be prioritizing "right now" that heavily, especially when that prioritization will hurt in later years.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree with all of this. The thing is that still makes him the best Twins SS option by a healthy margin.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    To be perfectly frank, shortstop isn't even on my radar beyond "start Escobar already... what the hell is wrong with you guys?" Unlike catcher and the bullpen, the Twins have internal options at short that have either proven the ability to competently play the position (Escobar) or have enough upside to warrant a roll of the dice (Polanco). I'd go with Escobar but whatever... choosing Polanco wouldn't make me mad or anything. The Twins also have internal bullpen options but they refuse to use them for some reason. It's... confusing. So, catcher. Go find a catcher.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I didn't find that article discouraging at all. By all accounts, the Twins like Kurt Suzuki the human being. They're not going to publicly trash the guy, particularly when they literally have zero other viable options at the position. The article leads off by saying the Twins are following a handful of catchers. I find that somewhat promising and that it's possible, maybe even likely, they think catcher is the biggest deficiency of the team right now (you can make an argument for the pen but I think catcher and bullpen are in lock-step as 1a and 1b in the problem dept.). But they need to find another catcher before April of 2016. If Suzuki starts the season behind the dish again, it's likely his option year vests and that's a bad position to be in to start 2017.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    This is the direction I'm leaning toward as well. In this organization, Kepler is valuable and expendable.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, we're kinda talking past each other here. I don't expect Arcia to "improve" so much as "stay on the field and mature", which will result in improvement. Whether that's an improvement to a 110 OPS+ player or a 130 OPS+ player, I do not know. He certainly has the talent to be that 130 guy but the dude can't stay on the bloody field long enough to find out. I agree that his trade return has diminished, though. I think it's mostly due to repeated injury but that's picking nits. The end result is that he's not worth as much today as he was in 2013.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, we're kinda talking past each other here. I don't expect Arcia to "improve" so much as "stay on the field and mature", which will result in improvement. Whether that's an improvement to a 110 OPS+ player or a 130 OPS+ player, I do not know. He certainly has the talent to be that 130 guy but the dude can't stay on the bloody field for long enough to find out. I agree that his trade return has diminished, though. I think it's mostly due to repeated injury but that's picking nits. The end result is that he's not worth as much today as he was in 2013.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    There are several players on Buxton's plane, I will agree with that point... But nobody in MiLB has much more upside than Byron. Again, Buxton is very good at literally everything he does. Those players are incredibly rare. Sano has similar upside to Buxton, though I don't see him being as valuable even if he hits like Miggy. Baseball is littered with players who are extremely good at one or two things. Finding the player who is very good at everything he does, that's a rare specimen and you hold on to that guy. Buxton has the kind of talent that's hard to valuate. He's fantastic in the field. He has a good arm. He can hit for respectable average. He has very good discipline. He's a respectable power hitter. He can swipe bags because he's blindingly fast. If he projects into the player we all expect him to become, he's basically flawless.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    That's a sticky situation. You have the following options: 1. Berrios. I don't think Jose is untouchable but he's close. The Twins are putting together a young core of arms that can compete in 2016-2019 but they're missing another #2 pitcher to complement Gibson and May to round out a competent playoff rotation. I think Berrios is that guy so the catcher better be really good to let Jose slip from your grasp. 2. Stewart, Meyer, Thorpe. Their value is diminished right now. Can't move any of those guys. 3. Hu. A long way from MLB. His value is questionable because he's so far from the majors. There isn't a good answer to the question.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm in not hurry to trade pitching but that's what it will probably take to get a decent catcher. It takes talent to get talent.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Who? I'm curious because Buxton is the complete package. His upside is Mike Trout. Now there's about a 99% chance that he won't be Mike Trout because that's an absurd expectation for any player but Buxton has that upside. And if your upside the best baseball player I've ever seen play the game, that makes it *really hard* to say there are a bunch of guys with more upside.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Oy. Trading Buxton for a catcher is a fool's game. You're trading a top centerfielder who can play 160 games for a guy who can play maybe 120. Catchers are valuable because of positional scarcity but they suffer the same problem found in trading for starting pitching... Their ability to impact the season is somewhat limited due to the fact they spend a limited amount of time on the field. Nevermind that I don't know if there's a single catcher in MLB or MiLB that I feel is a worthy trade for Buxton. Obviously, there's Posey but that's not going to happen so there you go. Buxton is one of those guys who profiles to be good at literally everything he does. He might not be a generational talent but he's not far from it, either. You don't trade that guy. You just don't.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely, I'm not saying it's great or anything but he has yet to get into a rhythm and all of his plate appearances came as a 21-23 year old (he went down with injury a few days before his 24th birthday). He might be an oft-injured player and maybe he'll never get into a rhythm but Arcia has loads of talent. He's probably the best pure hitter to come through the Twins system in the past 2-3 years, non Buxton/Sano edition.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Mauer suffered a serious brain injury. We've had this discussion many times and it's a sore subject with many posters. If you wish to discuss it, feel free to find one of the Mauer threads and continue the discussion there but expect polarized responses if you decide to go down that road.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    When the guy just barely turned 24, yes, it's pretty good.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Arcia's biggest issue is his frequent stints to the Disabled List, not a lack of talent. Even though he was "scuffling" early this season, he still had an OPS+ of 98 and then, naturally, he got injured and derailed his season. He may turn into an oft-injured player whose value is diminished for it but I don't see him becoming a "bust". If the guy is healthy, he hits. It's that simple.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Boy, I don't see that at all. Arcia isn't Chris Parmelee or another prospect with questionable upside and repeated struggles. The guy can hit and has done so at every level of baseball. His defense is suspect but he's a valid DH candidate even if he can't play the field. Oswaldo is 24 years old with a career .807 OPS against righties. Under no circumstances do you let that guy go for nothing. Fun fact: Oswaldo Arcia has a higher career OPS+ than Trevor Plouffe.
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