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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, not the vast majority of the time, as Williams had a career OBP of .482. Bonkers.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    So now we get to cheer on the Angels tonight.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    He can't pull every pitcher who struggles before the end of the fifth because, in case you haven't noticed, the Twins rotation is more than a little bit sketchy.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Gibson sure is fun to watch.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    True, but we're talking about a doubleheader game, which makes it likely he would be sent down.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I never really fully bought into the idea, only accepted that it was possible because the thinking makes some sense.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it's entirely reasonable to be more excited now. Entering this past series, the Brewers had a better record than the Twins. It was reasonable to expect nothing better than a split, maybe a 3-1 series if things bounce the Twins' way. But now they enter a reasonably easy stretch of play with a five game winning streak and poised to snatch one of the Wild Card spots. That's reason to be excited... I expected the Twins to tread water and finish in the 78-83 win range but now they have a legit shot at being a game or two better than that, which puts them in Wild Card territory. Which means that the games will actually matter and we won't only be watching young player development for the rest of the season. That's reason to be a little excited.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    The only reference I've heard to some pitchers struggling with extra rest are guys who rely on sink. Which makes sense, as if you overthrow a pitch that is supposed to sink, it... doesn't. And that means it sails right through the batter's wheelhouse. And that means the ball lands somewhere very far away from the batter's box. But I've never heard of command guys struggling with extra rest.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, all of this. I do not expect the Twins to make the postseason. But unless they tank the final 50 games, it should be fun to watch.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I still believe it's an aberration. Dozier has an OPS of .820 with RISP this season. He has an OPS of .660 with men on base. So is he only good with men on second or third base but terrible if there's a runner standing on first? I think we can all agree that makes no sense whatsoever. It's not unusual for these numbers to move up and down season over season. Dozier's RISP OPS in 2016 was .030 lower than his regular OPS. In 2015, his RISP OPS was .020 higher than his regular OPS. There's a weird narrative on this board that constantly tries to tell us Dozier is terrible in RISP situations but here are his career numbers: Career: .767 OPS RISP: .769 OPS Um. So yeah.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    The front office should offer him the Bobby Bonilla Special.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect Molitor wants to ease Belisle into the closer's role as much as possible.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Escobar is on track to post another 1.5 fWAR partial season. Pay the man, even if you don't "need" him. He's an asset. If he turns out to be superfluous on the roster, then trade him. You won't get much but he'll bring back a #20-30 org prospect from a team who needs a competent utility guy.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, but a 20 game improvement is still only 79 wins. I don't think anyone reasonably predicted the 83+ games it would require to get close enough to the postseason where two players would make a difference. (not giving the front office a pass for their bullpen decisions though)
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this is a good example why the truly advanced teams have begun moving away from shifting all day, every day.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I generally agree but damn, the starting pitching market last offseason was brutal. That's why I generally give them a pass on the rotation but not the bullpen. There were easily-obtained bullpen options available and there was no reason not to go get at least one of them.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not a terrible return, it's an iffy return. Even Mateo, the centerpiece, has some mixed ratings. BA had him all the way down at 85 before the season. Kaprielian could work out wonderfully but there's enormous risk in a young player already down with TJ surgery. Anyway, my point is that if that's what Gray netted in return, I don't even want to know what teams would have paid for Santana.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not speaking of releasing/replacing Twins players, I'm speaking of the farm system. Garcia cost something. Are we sure the front office was ready and capable of evaluating their farm just one month into their tenure? I'm not sure they were ready at that point. It's one thing to evaluate MLB players. You have loads of data and actual first-hand experience with them. MiLB players are something else entirely. Falvey and Levine would have needed to rely on the internal evaluators already in place. Would you be comfortable doing that, given how the Twins had performed over the previous five years? What if the Cards asked for Thorpe and the internal evaluators signed off on that idea?
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I think what's more interesting is the underwhelming market for starting pitchers this deadline. Given what their respective teams got for Gray and Darvish, I'm totally fine with holding on to Santana. Given this market in comparison to Gray, would Santana even net a top 100 prospect? Mateo is a nice piece (but hardly world-beating) but Kaprielian is something of a lottery ticket. That's not an impressive return for a guy with 2+ years of control at a reasonable price. At that point, Ervin is far more valuable to the Twins roster than in trade.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I think we can all agree on the bullpen so I'm focusing on this. I have no issues with the front office not making trades last offseason, particularly for Garcia. Three reasons: 1. They were new to the organization. They had more than their fair share of work just to figure out who to trust in evaluations, what to prioritize, and they got a really late start on all of it due to Cleveland's deep run. 2. Garcia was off the block very early in the offseason, even before the winter meetings (December 1st). 3. The front office obviously put a lot of their resources into finding a suitable home for Dozier, unfortunately it did not work out.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. If just one of those guys contributes 3 career WAR for the Twins, it's a win. It's such a low bar to set that I don't understand why people are upset. After seeing Cleveland go on a run, does anyone legitimately expect this team to catch them? Or even the Wild Card, after the Yankees picked up Gray? This was a fun half season. The Twins are still building but have a solid core. This was the right decision. Teams rarely go from 59 wins to the postseason. The Twins are taking their lumps and should end up between 75-82 wins on the season. The front office is acting accordingly and rolling with the punches that a young team delivers.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    What I take away from this is that the Twins should trade "closers" whenever possible because they're mostly fungible. A good reliever somehow becomes more valuable when he pitches the ninth so exploit that.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair, which is why I called their drafts acceptable (good catch on Stewart and Jay, I always try to lump them together but Gordon was between them). But I have issues with a team that drafts two pitchers near the top of the draft and bombs on both of them. I don't think that's an unreasonable stance to take. If even one of them looked to become a league average starter, my opinion changes drastically. You can miss at the top of the draft. You can't miss more than once. I don't expect every player to become a star but at least half of them need to contribute. And it's not as if the rest of the draft has cranked out superstars to make up that deficit. The Twins got Berrios - 2012 was an excellent draft overall - but it's not as if Gonsalves is expected to step up and be a left-handed version of Jose. He's likely back of the rotation material. Very valuable in the 3rd or 4th round, whenever the Twins got him, but not exactly a replacement for missing on both Jay and Stewart.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Except it's highly unlikely the Twins will win this season and both guys they traded are free agents after the season. I simply don't see much downside here.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. I don't think this is brought up enough, really. I was fine with Kintzler closing and also fine if he would accept a 2/$14m deal but he's not the perfect closer. He's a guy who has gotten the job done but he's not working with much margin for error. A loss of feel and/or velocity and he's cooked.
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