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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    No, which is why no prediction models had the Twins with a good chance of a berth. It’s easy to look at stuff like the Tigers’ record today and assume they were always that terrible. But the Tigers were ten games under .500 at the deadline. Fewer than two months later, they are 33 games under .500 and that is AFTER they won four straight games from Aug 1-4. Baseball is a silly sport. Oakland and Detroit were basically the same team at the deadline. Pretty bad but not horrific. Both sold significant pieces. Detroit went 23 games under .500 down the stretch. Oakland went one game OVER .500.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    What hypotheticals? That out of eight teams, a flawed and significantly outscored to that point Twins team wouldn't hang with over half the AL for a single postseason spot? That's not a hypothetical. The Twins had the worst run differential of the bunch (going from memory) and were in a backwards slide, posting a terrible record in July. And it was unreasonable to expect all seven teams to falter. Hell, head-to-head matchups almost dictate that at least one of them would end up a winner.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Seattle, Tampa, Baltimore, and Kansas City all played sub-.450 ball down the stretch. Half of the eight teams who were in the mix at the deadline.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The Angels didn't make a strong run. They played two games over .500 for two months after getting Trout back just before the deadline and acquiring a very good Upton for September. If you consider their record going into mid-July, they underperformed their previous record by getting back a 1+ WAR per month player and a .900 OPS player in Upton. For that team to play 27-25 baseball down the stretch is a pretty big disappointment for them. And I don't see how it's not considered "folding" when a full half of those .500-ish teams played sub-.450 baseball after the deadline. That's a lower win percentage than the Oakland A's played all season.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Four .500-ish teams playing at a sub-.450 clip and all but one team playing under .500 ball isn't folding? I don't feel like this is a difficult concept to grasp but apparently it is. Here's my point, clarified: If you have eight .500-ish teams with two months to play, you'll usually end up with a few of them under .500, a few of them will remain around .500, and a few of them will end up over .500. And that's ignoring the potential improvement some of those teams will see by making trades to shore up deficiencies. For all of them but one to remain under .500 is a statistical fluke, one you do not see very often in baseball (again, 2017 is the first time this century the AL has ended up with just five teams over .500 and it even happened in a 15 team league, not the previous 14 team league). It requires a lot of teams folding to end up at that number, which is why we haven't seen it in at least the past 20 years (I stopped checking at 2000).
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree, I'm only saying that after the improbable happened, it became an error. A largely unpredictable error but an error none-the-less. I supported the move at the time and still support the thinking that led to it.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    That's a fair thing to say. I consider it a small error with the correct thinking behind it. But after the unlikely events that transpired, still an error. And as we've seen with the old front office (and other teams), I'd rather see the occasional error with the correct process behind it than the inverse.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't check but I doubt it, as the NL had 16 teams for the bulk of that time.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    2017 is first time this century only five American League teams will finish the season with a winning record. And the AL had only 14 teams the bulk of that time.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    See, I hope they were. The Twins had to make a decision around July 28-29. The Royals were hot and likely in the hunt to acquire pieces. The Twins were reeling and had to make a decision whether they could catch the Royals. And right there, in that moment, the situation looked dire. I supported the decision at the time and still support it today. Just because the Twins bats came alive to an extent no one predicted doesn't mean the decision to do a mild sell was the wrong one.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Two teams were over .500 but four other teams were basically in the same position as the Twins (but weren't collapsing at the time). To expect none of them to make a run is pretty unreasonable. To add to the problem, the Twins were in the position of having the worst pitching staff outside Baltimore. It's reasonable to lament the Kintzler trade somewhat but it wasn't some huge mis-step by the front office. If you had 50 games left to play and a bunch of mediocre teams in the mix, who do you pick to come out on top? It's not the team with a terrible pitching staff and one that is reeling, losing games in both the division and Wild Card by the day. The Twins were coming off two losing months and a terrible two week stretch of play. They were 46-44 on July 15th and closed out the month at 50-53.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    What basis do you have for that statement? For the Twins to clinch yesterday, it required seven teams to fold down to the stretch. Not four of seven, which is what you'd expect. Not five of seven, which is still reasonable. All seven teams. Here are the records on the morning of August 1st followed by the records from August 1 through today: Seattle: 54-53 / 23-29 Tampa Bay: 54-53 / 22-29 Kansas City: 55-49 / 23-31 (ouch) Texas: 50-55 / 26-27 Toronto: 49-57 / 26-27 Los Angeles: 51-55 / 27-25 (hey, a winning record!) Baltimore: 51-54 / 24-30 Minnesota: 50-53 / 33-22 One team out of eight made a legitimate run and it happened to be the team that was playing terrible baseball on July 31st. Sometimes that happens but it's not a flaw in analysis to fail to predict something unlikely to happen. The team with the worst pitching staff amongst contenders (non-Orioles edition) somehow went on a stretch run that defied any and all expectations. Again, it happens but it's not something you predict because baseball is crazy.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that's being generous. People continue to ignore just how unlikely the events of August and September were in retrospect. At the deadline, there were eight legitimate contenders for the second Wild Card (as we basically knew the Yankees were going to get in unless something devastating happened to them): SEA, BAL, MIN, KC, LAA, TEX, TOR, TB For Minnesota to get into the postseason - a Minnesota team that was reeling at the deadline and falling backward by the day - it required all seven teams to fold down the stretch. None of them are going to finish the season over .500. That's absurd. No one should or would have predicted that to happen. The odds of that happening are... Well, I don't even know. I don't think I've seen it happen in baseball before this season. Of course, it happened. The Twins are in. But if you think betting on the Hail Mary is a good long-term play, I'd prefer you not run the baseball team I follow every season.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll definitely keep watching Discovery. It didn't really hook me - too early in the character arcs to really get behind - and the main character (Michael) starts off more unlikeable than I'd like to see. But, like all Fuller shows, Discovery is very well written. That in itself will keep me tuned in for awhile.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    This Buxton kid might end up being pretty good.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't worry about it too much for a few reasons: 1. The Verducci Effect has largely been disproven. Sure, overuse can hurt a pitcher but there's no hard and fast rule how much, how quickly might hurt a guy. 2. Berrios has been a workhorse since he was drafted. 3. Berrios pitched 170 innings last season. If he's not ready for a full season workload now, he'll never be ready.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, but at least with a bullpen, you have a slight advantage by playing L/R splits and giving hitters a different look every inning or two.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, this. With a long bullpen in the postseason, getting 6+ out of your starter isn't as important.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    wut no
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    No, before.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    He’s missing ~5mph on his slider. Liriano’s slider was historically good. IIRC, he could get it up to 92mph and the bottom fell out. It was a good fastball that suddenly lost a violent battle with gravity.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The Tigers are making Mejia’s slider look really good tonight.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    103mph, lefty on lefty. Yeah, you want to see Joe put wood on the ball there but crikey.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    They walked away from a homestand with a 4-2 record. Yeah, it would have been nice to walk away 5-1 but if you win two out of three at home, you've done okay for yourself.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I know everybody's super busy bitching and moaning about who the Twins did or didn't trade but Santana is gutting out a decent game. Other than Judge's homer, most of the baserunners have been bad luck.
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