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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Just keep in mind that many Twins fans absolutely skewered the Twins for drafting Mauer over Prior. Fans know virtually nothing.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Lots of fans mock lots of draft picks, even good ones. That means nothing.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. It generally raises a guy's floor but after reading that the Twins used Trackman data on Greene and still passed, that raises concerns for me. I still wanted to see them take Greene but, again, what the hell do I know?
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    While I question the pick, it's not known whether it's a bad decision. Falvine got up close and personal with Greene a few days ago. He has the spreadsheets displaying the numbers on his stuff. We don't. That doesn't mean he's right and we're wrong but it does mean any opinion we have is, at best, half-baked.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, my tongue was kinda in my cheek when I wrote that sentence. It's possible to draft position players and flip them for pitchers. Or sign free agents. Or use the international market. Lots of options.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    This pick makes me wonder if Falvey is taking the Cubs approach of "avoid pitchers". Not sure a mid-market team can play that game but whatever, we'll all know in a few years. I don't get riled up about the draft because when you get right down to it, none of us know jack crap about these players.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Lewis. There you go. Well, I don't get it, but whatever.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Another reasonable way to look at the situation. Selling on Gordon this deadline might be selling high on the guy, though it might be hard to convince opposing GMs that is not the case. I'm open to several different approaches but the approach it will be hardest to sell me on is "trade Ervin Santana, the one legitimate proven, above average pitcher in the organization".
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    But there's huge middle ground between none of those guys being good and all three of them being good. What if both Gonsalves and Romero are good but one gets injured? What if one is good and the other bad? The hit rate on groups of prospects is rarely binary. Right now, I'm concerned with the 2017 Twins, a first place team. I do not dismantle pieces that virtually ensure they drop out of first place in a hurry. If/when they are no longer in first place, reevaluate. We still have roughly seven weeks until the deadline.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    There is some hope for 2018. Gonsalves and Romero profile as decent prospects. But my eye is really on Thorpe. He's right back to his old self and killing it in Ft Myers. Given his age and former dominance, he could fast track through the system. IMO, Thorpe is the only guy in the upper minors with a legit shot at being well above average. It's probably a stretch to envision seeing him before July of 2018 but we'll just have to see.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Dozier isn't fully expendable but he's the closest thing to expendable the Twins currently have on the roster. Polanco and Escobar won't be great but they probably won't kill you, either. And Gordon is playing like he really wants a September cup of coffee. If Gordon moves to Rochester and continues dominating, he's going to force the issue some time in 2018, even possibly Opening Day.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    They can probably pick up an acceptable free agent starter. Or they could trade Dozier. I later mentioned that I'm open to trading Dozier if it helps the 2017 squad. He's the closest thing to expendable the Twins have on the roster right now.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    What young guys? The Twins have zero legit starting pitching prospects in AAA and two decent, though unspectacular, guys in AA. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if neither of them throws a pitch in MLB this season because they're not ready. No one has been or will be blocked for the foreseeable future. The team is starting Nik Turley today, for crying out loud.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    .300 is an arbitrary number and doesn't mean much. In today's game, all batting averages are suppressed. As of today, there are only 27 qualified players in all of baseball with an average of .300 or higher. The Twins have two players in the top 50 in batting average, Sano and Mauer. But batting average doesn't tell us much on its own. The Twins are sixth in the American League in team OPS, which tells us a lot more about their offensive capabilities. They're a slightly above average offense with the ability to get into the top five in the AL when all is said and done.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing about luck is that there is no inevitable "counter-luck" to balance the season. The Twins have been moderately lucky, yes, but their BaseRuns record is 28-29 so it's not an extreme shift in either direction (and BaseRuns is a better metric than pythag, as it tries to measure a lot more than just pure run output). The Twins could play .500 ball the rest of the season (which is close to their BaseRuns output thus far) and challenge for the division and wild card deep into the season. One six week long hot streak from Brian Dozier and they can be quite a bit better than that, either winning the division or a wild card appearance. The Twins are a flawed team, yes. That's why I wouldn't break open the farm for an expensive rental. But, on the other hand, I'm not going to give up on a team with a legit shot at the postseason just because they're imperfect. Lots of teams are imperfect and go deep into the postseason. And none of this brings up the long-term PR hit you'd see from trading Santana and/or Dozier (though I'm more open to trading Dozier if it helps the 2017 squad). Baseball attendance lags by nearly a season. The Twins would be leaving literally millions of dollars on the table for 2018 by punting on the season and closing the year with a 78 win season versus an 85 win season and postseason contention.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins are still in first place. So, no, you do not trade from a position of weakness unless the return is so astounding good that you can't refuse the offer. And that is so unlikely to happen that it's not worth mentioning.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The deviation from the cast episode is "New York, I Love You" and is one of the finest single episodes of television I've seen this decade. Another great episode from season two is the dating episode, can't recall its name.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    While working yesterday, I started half-watching Master of None. The first season is very good. The second season is amazing. At least half the episodes are great, the rest are good. And each great episode has this crazy, experimental flavor that defies placing the show in a single genre. The creators play around with story mechanics and take episode-long detours away from the main cast at points. It's fascinating stuff and way smarter than I expected.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm still going to need to see more from Garver. He only has a combined 160 PAs in Rochester over two seasons. His OPS was .688 in A+ and .753 in AA. I hope his bat is legit but I'm still worried that what we're seeing is a mirage.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I doubt that's his strategy. At least I hope that's not his strategy. I suspect the more likely situation is that it's still May and no one is available. Going into the season, the Twins had a ton of arms that weren't very good but that was probably enough to get through to June or July. Unfortunately, Trevor May's injury crippled that approach before a single game was played.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Because there's not a strong correlation between player performance and RBI but there is a strong correlation between team RBI and win-loss record. And RBI is largely a team stat, not an individual stat. The exception is the solo home run.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    It's an overstatement. RBI are extremely valuable. RBI are also an extremely poor evaluation tool. Guys who hit lots of home runs collect lots of RBI. It's that simple. Mauer walks an incredible amount in RBI situations, which further deteriorates his number. The best outcome of an RBI situation is to get that RBI. The second best outcome is to get on base. In that regard, yeah, I guess Mauer isn't the greatest outcome player, he's simply the second-greatest outcome player.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It's disappointing how prevalent the Mauer hate is in less stat-centric circles. A few days ago, I was reading the comments section of I Love Minnesota Sports' Facebook page. They posed the question "Who was the better Twin, Hunter or Mauer?" Some people said Mauer, which is probably the easy and right answer. A few said Hunter but pointed out his clubhouse leadership skills. I'm fine with that. But a bunch - and I mean a bunch - went after Mauer hard. They downplayed everything Joe was good at and talked about how Hunter was better at everything. Most threw in potshots at Joe over the contract and even his personality (weak, lazy, whatever). And that is just an idiotic opinion to have on Mauer. We all gripe about his faults at times but he's one of the best players to ever wear a Twins uniform. That can't really be disputed but some people out there act like he was Nick Punto in his prime, not a record-breaking catcher who was at the top of the sport for several years (it's hard to say Hunter was ever at the "top of the sport", he was a very very good player, not elite). So, yeah, it's not really an overcorrection.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Why did you expect him to be better? His OPS is almost exactly between his last two seasons. I was worried Castro would be a little worse with the stick than he has been this season. He has modest power but played half his games in Houston, which gave the illusion of a bit more power than he actually has (going into the season, he had nearly twice as many homers at home than he did on the road). I'm quite satisfied with Castro's play.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair. I hope they had a good reason for the Tepesch start because from the outside, it was puzzling.
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