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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    True, the front of the rotation was better in 1987 but the entire pitching staff was bleh in the ALCS. The Twins won through a bit of dumb luck and some really mediocre pitching. They hit their way to the WS (where the pitching staff improved a bit). And that's my point, really. Both the 1987 and the 2017 teams match up pretty closely. A strong offense and meh pitching. But the road to a World Series championship is a lot harder in 2017. The Twins need 12 wins to get there versus just eight in 1987.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Not really. The 1987 team's pitching staff was pedestrian (99 ERA+) and not terribly different than this season (96 ERA+). Whereas this year's offense (103 OPS+) is actually slightly better than the 1987 squad (97 OPS+). The 1987 squad simply wasn't very good. They got lucky and hot at the right time in an era when eight wins nets you a championship.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    It appears random variance, at least from a glance. Archer has been relatively consistent with FIP/ERA over the course of his career and the Rays are a good defensive team.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    FIP versus ERA. Archer is underperforming his FIP by almost three-quarters of a run this season.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. This team is good/decent. My point is more that "good/decent" teams can go on short losing streaks pretty easily (hell, even very good teams can do this on occasion, see the Dodgers), especially teams that rely on offense as much as the Twins do. But with a bunch of teams with middling/good records, any one of them could turn hot or cold over 15 games, which would define their season. That's my concern; not that the Twins are vastly inferior to anyone else competing for the WC spot.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Thankfully, three of those teams are in the AL West and they all play each other down the stretch. That decreases the odds of going on a tear and passing the Twins.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    This is what makes baseball amazing.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    This team managed to get though something like ten games in nine days and did pretty well IIRC. And they did it in August with a 25 man roster. I'm not worried about the games played or the opponents. I'm simply not convinced this team is very good, which can result in short losing stretches (to be fair, they're not very bad either)
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    By which metric? Not arguing, legitimately curious. Radke was underrated but top 30 seems pretty high to me.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    No, he didn't. He said "name one pitcher that is a 4/5"...
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Palka is a left-handed batter who finished his AAA season with a .759 OPS. There's no place for him on a team that's trying to win in September. Granite/Palka would be a huge downgrade from Rosario/Grossman. You gain a little defense with Granite but lose a ton of offense. With Palka, you probably remain defensively neutral (Palka might be worse than Grossman) but again, likely lose quite a bit of offense.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Split the final two games and KC is cooked.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Neither Carew nor Mauer have/had a negative season of fWAR so it's a moot point.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Hard to call Smith "rounded". He was stellar at two skills (defense and baserunning) and pretty bad at the rest. edit: huh, never realized Smith was as disciplined a hitter as he was.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Just for fun, here's a comparison using bWAR: Mike Piazza had a career best bWAR of 8.7 in 1997. Ivan Rodriguez had a career best bWAR of 6.5, also in 1997. Which player had the better season? It's not as easy as just spitting out a number, as Pudge was one of the all-time greats behind the dish while Piazza was one of the all-time jokes behind the dish.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Weird stat to note about Escobar. While his 2015 and 2017 seasons look very similar in BA, OBP, and SLG, how he got there is really strange. 2015: 31 2B, 4 3B, 12 HR 2017: 13 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR *scratches head*
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    While I agree in principle, WAR is notoriously awful at measuring catcher defense. And by most regards, Mauer was at least passable, if not very good (by the time framing came around, Joe was getting a bit long in the tooth for a catcher so it's hard to say what he was like in his mid 20s).
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I meant win two of the three remaining games. A sweep would be great but just win three out of four and go home. That will be enough to stick a fork in KC's postseason chances.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Take two out of three in KC and then get the hell back home for what should be a comfortable seven game home stand against the Padres and Jays.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Holy **** my prediction is on track to be really close. .260/.340/.480 32 HR
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Logjams have a tendency to sort themselves out quickly due to regression, injury, etc. I'm not worried about it.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd be shocked if Mauer makes even half his current salary in his next contract. But I'm also not sold on resigning him at all.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    If he's an .800-.850 OPS player in 2018, there's a better than even chance he rejects the QO and someone gives him $70m+ over 4-5 years. And even if you're "stuck" with him, you have an .800-.850 OPS second baseman on a one year contract.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    If this is who Dozier is going forward and the market remains soft on second basemen, riding out the contract and giving him a QO seems the most logical route to take.
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