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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    This doesn’t make sense. When one of your best offensive players slumps, your offense will struggle. When that player does well, your offense will improve. You’re blaming Dozier for the bad but giving him no credit for the good. Which is particularly weird because you keep bringing up Polanco, who has not been very good in a SSS and much worse than Dozier over the same stretch of time (much MUCH worse).
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree with your point, but... Mike Moustakas' career fWAR (12.4) is roughly comparable to Dozier's 2016-17 fWAR (11.2). Again, come on.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Seriously. We're talking about Dozier signing a $5m per year contract for three seasons. Let's bring this back to the original statement and consider the absurdity of it. If we want to talk whether he'll get $8m per for two seasons, I guess that's a conversation we can have but it's likely still wrong. Even in a depressed market, Dozier is a $10-12m player easily because seriously, he's a five win player. GMs are not stupid. One will find a way to fit a player like Brian Dozier into their lineup for $8m a year. At least one will also do it for $10m a year. Even if Dozier ends this season with a .750 OPS, I'd toss him $12m on a make good season because why the **** not? People simultaneously accuse GMs of being idiots and brilliant. Taking on Dozier for $12m in a season (literally 80%+ of the three season total originally posted) is a no-brainer because you're paying less than 10% of your payroll for a potential 4-6 win player. That's a risk you take every day.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    His floor is Addison Reed money if the season ended today. Dozier was worth 11 wins in 2016-17. Besides, Addison Reed money is considerably more money than Thrylos was talking ($8m per versus $5m per). Dozier's probably going to get a lot less than he wants but teams would have to be crazy to pass on a 3 year, $30m deal if he ends the season with another 4-ish wins (which is entirely possible given his recent stretch of play).
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Dozier is not going to get less than Addison Reed money. Come on.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Nick Gordon has a .600 OPS in Rochester with an isoD of around .020. Um, no. Not yet.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    It's way too early to count on anything in either direction, though the obvious take is that the Twins are close to out of it. But Cleveland isn't exactly a powerhouse this season, anyway. I'm perfectly content to see the front office sit on their hands for two more weeks and then reevaluate. Maybe you try to move Lynn early and replace him with Romero, that's fine. But there's nothing to be done right now, anyway. If Dozier is truly on fire, his value only climbs over the next couple of weeks. I'm interested in retaining Escobar so I'm in no rush to move him, particularly if he's drifting back to a .750-.800 OPS, which is probably closer to a real evaluation of his skill level and makes it easier to keep him in the offseason. The bullpen pieces won't bring enough back to make me care. None of them are good enough to be a July 15th trade anyway. They're a last-minute trade at best and you still probably get nothing worth mentioning for any of them. I want to see what the Twins have in them over the next couple of weeks. Maybe we are pleasantly surprised by the results but I'm not holding my breath here.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the left field aspect of the ball has two elements worth noting: - The runner gets a VERY good look at the ball and fielder - The fielder has to make a 50 ft throw, not a 150 ft throw Again, that play was all on Morrison and there’s a good chance it cost the Twins a shot at the win. Kennedy couldn’t pitch and a four run deficit can be overcome in 6-7 innings (can’t remember if it was the second or third when it happened).
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    That wasn’t 20/20 hindsight, as I called it as it happened, saying “NO!” as he rounded second. 1. Alex Gordon has an arm on him. 2. Logan Morrison is very slow. 3. Never make the first out at third base. 4. The team was down by four runs. 5. Logan Morrison is very, very slow.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    It was the environment. Also, A Quiet Place is not a "jumping' movie. That's the point of it. I don't think I jumped once the entire film. That didn't mean it failed, it wasn't trying to do that at all past one or two points during the story.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I do. But there are times when I just roll with it because I'm having a fun and/or an experience. A Quiet Place was one of those times. But generally, I'm super critical of gaping plot holes. But in that film, I just didn't care.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    But to be fair, there are about a trillion plot holes in A Quiet Place, which is why it's an experience. Don't think about it too hard or it will suck you out of the fun.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    A Quiet Place is a fantastic film that needs to be experienced, not only watched. I told everyone I know to skip the theatre and watch it in a dark, quiet room. I lucked out and caught a matinee with about ten people in the theatre. It was outstanding. Definitely not overrated, simply a film that doesn’t really shine with a bunch of other people around you. (but it’s not a “scary” movie in the sense that it horrifies you, it’s a suspense film that relies on the lack of sound to build fear)
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Picked up by Amazon.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Best sci-fi show since BSG. Maybe even better. It’s phemomenal.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Rewatching Band of Brothers for what is probably the 20th time but first in 5-6 years. And it's still probably the greatest thing ever put on television. Even after all this time, it's simply magnificent.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm so glad to see Gibson emerge as a legit starting pitcher. For years, I lobbied that he still had untapped potential, as his overall career IP (combined MiLB/MLB) was extremely low for a pitcher his age (drafted out of college, TJS, multiple small injuries). But even I had soured on him by the start of 2017. It's good to see someone take him under their wing and get with 21st century baseball, eliminating the mantra "low in the zone" and just letting the guy hurl the ball at the plate with his best pitches.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I can't believe I've never done this before, but I just winced in pain after looking this up. Polanco, Buxton, Sano, Santana, and Castro combined for 17.5 rWAR in 2017. Christ, no wonder this team is kinda bad this season.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed but given the way he's trending and the circumstances that likely led to his initial struggles (late start to season), I think it's more likely than not he ends up have a decent season by his standards once you adjust to AL expectations.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Are you saying the Mariners aren't a lock for the postseason with their +8 pythag record and +7 BaseRuns record?
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins want Escobar, I suspect they'll have more than a fair chance to keep him. Escobar is a hard player to predict and frankly, I'm more interested in keeping him if his OPS is .800 than if his OPS is .900 at season's end. I think he can sustain an .800 OPS for awhile but am incredibly skeptical of him holding at .900 for a prolonged period of time, which means I don't want to bid for him after a .900 OPS season.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Extending Escobar now is the literal definition of buying high. It's unlikely he continues this torrid pace all season and you get to affix a QO to him if need be, which gives you negotiating leverage in November. Just ride it out, see what happens.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. I’ve been as hard on Molitor over his bullpen usage as anybody but didn’t have a problem with how he managed the game last night.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Berrios has been allowed to go deep into games quite often and he didn’t have his best stuff last night, not even close. You thank the guy for his effort and let the bullpen take it from there.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Inherited runners are really important but as a stat, it's pretty flawed. If you inherit a runner on first with 1-2 outs and let them score, that's bad pitching. If you inherit runners on second and third with no outs and both score, that's not really on the reliever (maybe you can make a case that the runner on second should only score ~50% of the time but the runner on third is a gimme). It's not terribly different than judging a starter on his win total. Sure, the outliers are pretty solid indications of good/bad (if a starter wins 20, he's very good... if he loses 15+, he's pretty bad) but the fat middle part of the bell curve is pretty hard to judge on that stat alone.
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