Brock Beauchamp

I was hoping to get to watch him live in St Paul some time later this year. Well, that's the Twins for ya. When's the last time they had a heralded prospect make it through the minors and into the majors without a significant injury along the way? I fully expect Alex Kirilloff to be killed by a falling blimp any day now.

This won't happen because a lying idiot can spread the virus just as readily as an honest idiot. The goal is containment of the virus, not containment of liability for private organizations. America is already extraordinary at the latter, we don't need any additional nudges in that direction, while we're pretty bad at the former and need considerable help in that regard.

I generally agree about putting untested draftees high on a list but putting Sabato eighth on the Twins list feels like a pretty conservative move. The system is deep but not particularly top-heavy. Sabato is ranked below a few guys who won't even make a top 100 prospect list this year.

Except all the things I mentioned are actually trackable, measurable changes, not Spring Training puffery nonsense (but nice job conflating the two things). They’re right there on his Fangraphs page if you care to look for them.

The way I see it, the problem here is that you continue to grade Maeda's 2020 season using only the most superficial stats and a gut feeling, while ignoring what he actually did to improve over past seasons. It has been widely written about and discussed that the Twins changed his approach to batters, particularly use of his changeup to opposite side hitters. But to dig into the stats... this is out of all qualifying pitchers in MLB last season: FIP - 10th K% - 8th BB% - 4th Combine the K/BB into K-BB% and Maeda comes in fourth in all of baseball, only behind literally the best pitchers in the game last season (in order: Bieber, deGrom, Bauer). Last season, Maeda improved on swing percentages in the zone and swing percentages outside the zone, while reducing contact (sometimes drastically) on those same swings. According to Fangraphs, every pitch type he threw last season with any regularity was positive value, which is pretty extraordinary and speaks to his control and command. Long story short, the Twins took Maeda's pitch combination and when/where to throw them, tweaked them pretty heavily, and as a direct result, Kenta improved in almost every measurable way over his previous career numbers. Is Maeda due to regress in 2021? I mean, probably... because almost all pitchers who pitch that well for a stretch are due to regress a bit. Will he regress to his career norms? Unlikely, because we can establish actual changes made and the corresponding improvement that went along with it. This wasn't a lucky season nor did he pitch over his head.

I'm not sold on 2021 Kenta being quite as good as 2020 Kenta but he made trackable changes to his approach and the underlying numbers reinforce the idea he'll be a better pitcher going forward than he was with the Dodgers. And I just don't understand why Twins fans seem so reluctant to acknowledge that he's probably going to be very good again this season. I can't remember the last time I saw fans of a team ignore a quality starting pitcher on the team while screaming "we need an ace!!!!11" all day, every day.

The Twins have made the postseason in 2017, 2019, and 2020... and Byron Buxton has 6 career postseason plate appearances. Sigh.

I don't know if "disappointing" is the right word. Last season, Thorpe lost 2mph from his fastball and I have no idea why. If that velocity returns, he could go right back to being a good prospect. If this is him going forward, that's a real bummer for the guy because he can't survive in MLB with 89mph stuff. Did anyone ever explain why his stuff was so dismal in 2020?

Hmm. I was hoping for more of a sure thing but I guess this is fine for the fifth starter role.

I don't even really know Bauer's politics and I've never heard much discussion of them. But what I do know is that he's something of a jerk online (while often being apolitical) and is quite a polarizing figure in past clubhouses. That doesn't mean I don't want him on my team but any reservations I have about his character aren't about "politics", they're about inviting a loud-mouthed person many feel is a jerk into a clubhouse.

*raises hand* I wouldn't. Not because Bauer isn't a better player - he is - but because "two years for the same price as four" isn't how money works. Bauer would absolutely cripple the Twins' ability to go out and get Cruz, Simmons, Happ, or other players. The price of Bauer per season is basically Cruz + Donaldson + Simmons, give or take a couple of million. I'll take those three good+ players over one great+ guy that doesn't have an amazing track record. Bauer took it to an entirely new level in a 60 game season. There's evidence to back up he'll be a better pitcher going forward but I'm skeptical that his "1999 Pedro" season in a shortened pandemic season is what we'll see going forward, at which point that $40-45m cost starts to really sting a mid-market team.

I don’t know who is more accurate, I’ve never checked, but Vegas’ goal isn’t accuracy, it’s to split the bets.

Um... Wade had over 100 plate appearances with the Twins over the past two seasons so...

The Fangraphs 2021 projected standings have the Twins with a slight winning percentage edge, .547 to .540. Basically a tie.

My thoughts exactly. Take a flyer on a guy that might pay dividends at a useful position while giving away a guy who will only lose value in the coming months because there just isn’t room for all the OF in the upper system.

Likely because they feel Wade’s value is only going to depreciate if he stays in Minnesota.

Huh. Okay. Bummer, I like Wade but it’s hard to see a future for him in Minnesota.

No, but also believing modern stats are infallible is little better than quoting RBI when discussing player projections. Modern stats are superior to what came before but even if they're 98% accurate (throwing out a random number here, not saying they're that accurate) that still means they're inaccurate for 2% of players. If players like Ricky Nolasco can routinely underperform their peripherals, it stands to reason the opposite can be true as well. I don't think it happens often - and it happens far less frequently than the anti-sabr crowd says - but it still likely happens because we don't have a stat that captures everything that happens on the field, much less one that captures what happens between a player's ears.

All things being equal, I think the Twins prefer guys with all those shiny expanded peripheral stats. But smart small and mid-market teams zig when conventional baseball zags. Colome has significantly outperformed his FIP in roughly half his seasons played. He has outperformed his FIP in all but one season. This isn't a two year blip of aberrant performance, he has some ability to outperform peripherals year after year. And if that allows the Twins to get a $7-8m pitcher for $5m, I do that all day long. On top of all that, the Twins have shown they can pluck a pitcher from even the best-run MLB franchises (say, the Dodgers) and make that pitcher even better with a few tweaks. And the Sox are a well-run franchise but they're not the Rays, Dodgers, or Yankees.

And it's entirely possible that happens, it's just my belief this is a very low risk gamble... but it's not entirely without risk. Then again, there's also risk of Rosario significantly regressing in some capacity so keeping him comes with its own risks.

I agree on WPA and hitters, actually. But I'm not the one who brought up pressure and clutch performance, either. It's not something I really believe in for hitters so my point was to show how it's mostly bunk, not because I believe Rosario is either clutch or un-clutch. Regarding Late & Close versus High Leverage (WPA), you're missing the most important component: weighted plate appearances. Late & Close treats all late and close PAs the same. High Leverage weights the most important PAs and grades them according to expected outcome versus actual outcome. In the same inning, one can see PAs of wildly different values based on score and situation. Late & Close would judge these two PAs identically. - Eighth inning, no outs, down by two runs, bases empty. - Ninth inning, two outs, down by one run, bases juiced. Whereas High Leverage would grade those two PAs *very* differently.

How? Odorizzi pitched like a dozen innings last season.

Also not my first choice but I find it hard to argue with the terms of the deal.

A starter or reliever, maybe, but I’m skeptical of both.

1 + option for Colome, I can get behind that deal.