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  • Velo Ain't Everything

    Matthew Lenz

    By Matthew Lenz

    The Minnesota Twins front office has done an exceptional job identifying starting pitchers who aren’t flamethrowers. Despite the lack of velo, the Twins starting rotation has the second highest strikeout percentage in all of baseball. Maybe that’s because velo ain’t everything.

    Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Pierson Ohl)

    At the major-league level the Twins don’t have a single starter in the top-50 for average fastball velocity, yet find themselves with a 9.4 K/9. Pablo Lopez and Louie Varland have matching 94.9 mph averages, which is good for 54th out of 258 total starters in Major League Baseball this year. After Lopez and Varland, the next closest is Sonny Gray at 92.6 mph which is a significant dip. So, as a whole staff, how are the Twins able to throw guys the chair so effectively? The answer may not be what you expect.

    A lot is made of Joe Ryan’s deception behind his 92.5 mph “heater” as it tends to sneak up on hitters. His three-quarters delivery fools hitters into anticipating the speed and movement behind the pitch. Gray and Lopez are two more pitchers who have pitches in their arsenal with significant movement that can make hitters look foolish at the dish. All that said, you may be surprised to learn that, as a staff, the Twins are exactly league average in their Stuff+ ratings. So how do they do it?

    Command.

     

    The Twins are the best in baseball when it comes to commanding their pitches. Command isn’t just the ability to throw strikes, we call that “control”, but command is being able to “hit your spots”. If the catcher calls a fastball low and away? The pitcher throws it low and a away. The catcher calls for a back door slider? The pitcher throws a back door slider. As effective as velo can be, commanding the zone is arguably the most important skill a pitcher can have. But this isn’t just seen at the Major League level, it can be found throughout the entire organization.

    In St. Paul, the Twins have Brent Headrick, Cedar Rapids has Marco Raya, Fort Myers has C.J. Culpepper, and now Wichita has Pierson Ohl. When you look up the word “command” in MLB’s glossary, they now just show a GIF of Ohl’s fastball. The 2021 14th-round pick has 143 strikeouts to just 18 (!!!!) walks in 133 2/3 minor league innings to start his career. The otherworldly 7.94 K:BB recently earned him a promotion to AA-Wichita after just 25 starts in single-A. In fact, he’s making his AA debut tonight (June 9) against the San Antonio Missions who have the third most wins in the Texas League.

    You won’t find Ohl on any top prospect lists, because pitchers who don’t throw hard face an uphill battle making it to the Majors and typically are underrated. But pitchers who don’t throw hard also don’t typically strikeout more than one batter per inning while walking just one better every seven innings. Without a question, Minor League hitters are the ones facing an uphill battle when they stand in the box against the 6’ 1” righty.

    For years and years, the Twins were known for soft throwing pitchers who pitch to contact. Now, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are proving that soft throwing doesn’t have to mean pitch to contact if you can command the zone.

    Be sure to check out my recent (June 8) interview with Pierson Ohl embedded at the top of this article.

    Matt is a connoisseur of all things baseball, true crime, and food. Also a fan of the Timberwolves and Gophers Sports. Check out my socials #LenzysLots.
    Follow Matthew Lenz on Twitter: Lenzy2108

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    chpettit19

    chpettit19 12,861

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    I like this part of the Falvine team building strategy. They like good command, college pitchers in the draft who they believe they can add a little oomph to. It's the same strategy Cleveland uses. I think it's easier to teach a mechanical tweak that gets you a couple extra ticks on your FB, or a little extra spin on your breaking stuff, than it is to teach someone to truly have a feel for commanding their pitches.

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    Mark G

    Mark G 1,760

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    • Posted

    The song says "where have you gone Joe DiMaggio".......I am more inclined to say where have you gone Brad Radke?  Not overpowering, but he pitched to contact and got the job done.  Not a stud, but in 12 years he only once started less than 28 games.  Durable, and a solid number 3 or so starter.  And probably because he didn't try to strike everyone out; he pitched to spots and got them to hit his pitch. 

    You're right, Matt.  Velo is not everything.  

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    roger

    roger 4,079

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    • Posted

    Was at my son's Legion banquet 20 some years ago.  The guest speaker was an old time pitcher.  During the following Q&A, some young player asked how hard he threw.  His response brought a follow up question about how he could get hitters out throwing in the high 80's.  His response essentially was that velocity didn't mean much if you are able to throw all your pitches exactly where you wanted them.  There weren't any follow up questions as his response was clear he wasn't happy with the accusation.

    And this old timer was fairly successful, considering he has more major league wins than any lefty to ever play the game.  

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    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 24,911

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    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Mark G said:

    The song says "where have you gone Joe DiMaggio".......I am more inclined to say where have you gone Brad Radke?  Not overpowering, but he pitched to contact and got the job done.  Not a stud, but in 12 years he only once started less than 28 games.  Durable, and a solid number 3 or so starter.  And probably because he didn't try to strike everyone out; he pitched to spots and got them to hit his pitch. 

    You're right, Matt.  Velo is not everything.  

    "Pitch to Contact" got a bad name for some bad years... But in reality, Johan Santana was a pitch-to-contact guy too. He just had three pitches that he could command and they were also nasty that hitters weren't able to make contact with. 

    Pitch to Contact with guys that don't have command of the zone isn't such a good thing. 

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    Shobae

    Shobae 108

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    • Posted

    I looked at Ohl's numbers because the strike out to walk rate did certainly peak my interest in him and make me wonder why he wasn't higher on lists. I think the answer lies with the career .277/.304/.424 slash line against. Looking at his career babip a .350 line doesn't look terribly sustainable to me but I think most agree that babip is affected by pitcher skill and it's certainly possible his "true" babip is in the .310s. So if you're giving up around a hit per inning on average I think that will be a problem moving up the system and facing better hitters.

    As for the death of the pitch to contact hitters, I think it mostly comes from the fact that strike outs are the best and most reliable outcome for any pitcher. If you can consistently strikeout 25% of the batters you face then a quarter of the batters you face will never even get the chance to reach base. Whereas if you pitch to contact that's subject to the defense but also the general randomness you get in baseball. One season you've got the balls landing in the right ways for you and it's going well, the next the balls seems to find every hole and you're struggling to get out of innings. Obviously you can consistently generate weak contact that any major league fielder can make an out on 98% of the time you'll have success but I think that's always been a rare and hard to maintain skill.
    I think a good example of this is last years cy young and perennial FIP beater Sandy Alcantara, who this season has gone from a 2.28 ERA last year to a 5.08 ERA (and 3.65 FIP 🤯🤯) so far this season. Now I think there is more going on here than just general variance of pitching to contact, but I think he illustrates that tight rope that even the very best contact heavy pitchers walk. (Though I don't think the below average ERA will last all season for him).

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    Mark G

    Mark G 1,760

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    • Posted

    7 hours ago, Shobae said:

    I looked at Ohl's numbers because the strike out to walk rate did certainly peak my interest in him and make me wonder why he wasn't higher on lists. I think the answer lies with the career .277/.304/.424 slash line against. Looking at his career babip a .350 line doesn't look terribly sustainable to me but I think most agree that babip is affected by pitcher skill and it's certainly possible his "true" babip is in the .310s. So if you're giving up around a hit per inning on average I think that will be a problem moving up the system and facing better hitters.

    As for the death of the pitch to contact hitters, I think it mostly comes from the fact that strike outs are the best and most reliable outcome for any pitcher. If you can consistently strikeout 25% of the batters you face then a quarter of the batters you face will never even get the chance to reach base. Whereas if you pitch to contact that's subject to the defense but also the general randomness you get in baseball. One season you've got the balls landing in the right ways for you and it's going well, the next the balls seems to find every hole and you're struggling to get out of innings. Obviously you can consistently generate weak contact that any major league fielder can make an out on 98% of the time you'll have success but I think that's always been a rare and hard to maintain skill.
    I think a good example of this is last years cy young and perennial FIP beater Sandy Alcantara, who this season has gone from a 2.28 ERA last year to a 5.08 ERA (and 3.65 FIP 🤯🤯) so far this season. Now I think there is more going on here than just general variance of pitching to contact, but I think he illustrates that tight rope that even the very best contact heavy pitchers walk. (Though I don't think the below average ERA will last all season for him).

    Agreed for the most part.  My only, and prime, concern is pitching for strike outs requires more pitches per out on average.  And in an era where teams are married to pitch counts, that will limit the number of innings a starter can go and taxes the bullpen more than a lot of teams are able to handle.  And pitches designed primarily for swing and miss are harder on the arm, which some will say is leading to the amount of pitcher injuries we see.  Which may explain why teams are married to the pitch count.  Makes me dizzy going in circles like that.  🥴 

    But, yes, a pitcher must have good control/location to succeed inducing contact.  

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