TD Top Prospects: #2 Jose Berrios

I cant wait to see Berrios, but the prudent thing to do is wait at least 13 days , IF the other starting candidates look good in the spring. Then wait for an injury or poor performance in April , have him up by May 1st.

I think with about 7 or so starting pitching candidates healthy at the beginning of the year, it wouldn't make any sense NOT to keep Berrios down for at least 13 days.

To be clear as to who I'm talking about, I would call Trevor May or Tyler Duffey the 5th guy in line (after Gibson, Hughes, Santana, and Milone), and whoever loses out between those two goes to the pen but gets a legit shot at starting if one of the others is injured or ineffective early. After him, Ricky Nolasco may warrant taking another shot on if his mechanics look good out of the bullpen. I know that the money argument doesn't carry a lot of weight here, but he's at least worth keeping an eye on.

Long-term, I think Berrios has a higher upside than all of them, but keeping him for at least a couple weeks to start the season helps us: 1) get another year of control in his twenties; 2) figure out our supposed logjam at starter; and 3) keep focus on winning in the near-term with guys who have experience and won't need an adjustment period. (Yes, I'm aware that 3 is speculative. Berrios could come in and dominate right away. However, I'm a bit skeptical about that personally.)

The Twins have managed Berrios' innings.  That's their standard strategy:  build up arm strength slowly.  At 166 inning last year, I'd say he's ready.  But I'm also on the other side that says, let's let him get 2-3 starts at AAA.  Shake off any winter rust and get the MLB opening season stuff out of the way. 

I am very excited for him. I don't buy this pitchers have to be between 6-2 and 6-6 garbage. I will take his stuff, control, and composure over an extra two inches.

It is a no brainer to keep him down 13 days. I fear it becomes longer if everyone is is just OK. I hope we do what the A's did when they bumped Milone who wasn't really pitching that bad

Best case scenario is that he pitches well and is called up in June.  I say best case because that would mean the 5 guys in the rotation are throwing too well to be moved out and Berrios goes to the pen to go with May, Jepsen and Perkins.  I am excited to see Berrios and am not concerned about his height.  From the videos I have seen I wonder if his release point isn't similar to Alex Meyer.    With a career minor league ERA around 3.00 I don't know that I expect front line numbers from him.   At least not elite front line numbers.    In fact, given 25 starts I am guessing his stats will end up comparable to Duffey.    I am high on Duffey because I have seen him pitch and think his fast ball is decent and his curve ball is elite so that is not a knock on Berrios.   I temper my enthusiasm on Berrios until I actually see him.pitch a few games in the majors. He is the 4th ranked RHP minor league prospect.   He ain't Klayton Kershaw.   At least not yet.

The hardest thing about forcing his way up, short of injury, is that the Twins have a lot of mediocre SP right now, and will they cut a mediocre, highly compensated, veteran, if he's pitching like a number 4/5 starter? Do teams do that? Any team? If not, that means he most likely replaces Duffey, and Duffey has a chance to be more than a 4/5.......

I get this, and maybe it's completely delusional wishful thinking on my part, but...

I can see a scenario where one or more of our most expendable veterans pitches well enough to attract the attention of a good ballclub whose rotation gets decimated by injury. If Duffey, Berrios, and May all pitch well enough for long enough to earn Molitor and Allen's full confidence, I can picture a trade or two to make room for them. Obviously, Nolasco and Milone are the guys who come to mind. But somehow, I could see Santana being dangled too.

I apologize for cutting your posting to just a sentence, maybe part of a sentence, but I have just one thing to add to this...

 

That sentence is true short-term... like, right now.

 

He right now has the highest upside of them all. I think some (maybe me?) might argue that he could be the best of them right now, or very, very soon.

How about "longish"-term? How about medium-term? How about April 15th or so-term?

I guess I'm fundamentally in agreement that he MIGHT be better than what we have right now. But how do you possibly know while at the same time giving a fair chance to those pitchers who deserve it? (Remember I didn't include nolasco in my starting five.)

Even if it's true that he MIGHT be better right out of the gate, I think it's smarter business and smarter baseball to wait on him. At least for two weeks. It can't hurt us significantly and it might help us enormously.

There is possibly no pitcher I am more excited to see this year than Berrios. The kid looks 100% legit and has no glaring flaws that I perceive. One thing that I don't hear much about but wonder if it could happen is him starting the year (or 13 days in) in the bullpen. In my opinion it would solve many of our problems. He could face the best hitters in the world, ease the logjam, and be a late inning shutdown guy. If or when poor performance or injury open a door you have a much better idea of what he can do and Berrios will have more experience and confidence in his stuff. I realize that this puts the team at a disadvantage while he stretches out but it wouldn't take that long to do. This is essentially what we did with both Johan and Frankie; I believe it could help in this instance as well!

I'm also getting tired of the "he is too short" crap.  Maddox and Johan were only 6'0" (probably on their tip toes).  Lincecum is 5'11.  I'm not saying Berrios should be compared to these guys, just that shorter pitchers can be successful.

I'm also getting tired of the "he is too short" crap.  Maddox and Johan were only 6'0" (probably on their tip toes).  Lincecum is 5'11.  I'm not saying Berrios should be compared to these guys, just that shorter pitchers can be successful.

There was this other guy too.   Played primarily for Montreal, Boston, and the Mets.  Great stuff.  Should have won the MVP in 1999.

Berrios looks like Deebo compared to him.

However, if he ends up being anything close to as good as advertised, IMO, the Twins would be very foolish to not lock him up to a relatively long-term extension well before he gets very far into his arbitration years, buying out those arbitration years plus one or more free agency years to boot.

If he lets them.

If not, you're gonna be kicking yourself over about two weeks service time.