His Name Is Walker. Adam Brett Walker

Is it possible he is exactly where he needs to be?

His offensive output should leave us encouraged for the future.
His strike out numbers should point to the hard work in front of him before he is ready for the major leagues.

He is succeeding in AA and he still has work to do at that level. I expect that he will continue that work in AAA in 2016 and contribute at the major league level in 2017 having improved his ability to judge the strike zone.

Can I both believe in his production and realize is has some hard work in front of him?

Articulated very well

I won't pretend to be the expert here, but Walker is going to be Rule 5 eligible this winter along with 14 other players, and he hasn't even cracked AAA  yet. Compared to other college players the Twins have drafted, Brian Dozier for example, he's nearly a year behind while putting up roughly similar production at each level. And Dozier is considered a late bloomer. If the Twins continue to slow cook a fringy, college-drafted player like this, it seems like they risk handcuffing themselves later when it comes time to test him against MLB competition.

He is well worth a spot on the 40 man roster in 2016-17 in order to try to develop his bat from minor league power hitter to major league power hitter. Every year the Twins have no upside players taking spots on the 40.

It might be wise to wait until next year to put him on the 40 in order to maximize the development time against MLB competition.

Mesmerizing Guy - Baseball America Hot Prospect Sheet

High Risk/High Reward

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-june-12-stryker-finds-success-2015/

Walker has an OPS of .888. Let's see how some other Twins' minor leaguers produced in AA:

Dustan Mohr - .961

Michael Restovich - .834

Jeff Deardroff - .894

Terry Tiffee - .815

Luis Maza - .835

Kevin West - .910

Danny Matienzo - .826

Alex Romero - .812

Doug Deeds - .861

Brock Peterson - .858

Brian Dinkelman - .823

Joe Benson - .883

I guess I'm just confused as to why all of this production resulted in so little MLB success (Mohr had a couple OK years). Must be that the big leagues are different than the minors, and things that work in AA don't necessarily work at the highest level.

Because its a cherry picked sample?

Cherry picking is only a problem if the argument requires a full range of data. Mine does not.

Top prospects who produce in AA have a very good track record.

Non top-prospects who produce in AA do not have a good track record.

Walker is not a top prospect due to flaws in his game, and therefore his AA production is not predictive of future success.

The examples were therefore selected appropriately.

ABW faces the same problem all of the top prospects (other than Buxton):  their defense is spotty and limited, there are several of them, and Joe Mauer.  Mauer is going to play somewhere.  Other positions are taken.  Mauer will have three years left on his contract after this season.  I think the Twins might accept the risk of Mauer's final two years as a catcher.  Say 80-90 games as a C, some as a DH, some at 1B, some as a PH. The some will be determined by the success of the prospects at a position.

ABW's situation can be managed by adding him to the 40-man roster this fall and playing in Rochester all of 2016.  By Spring of 2017, much change should have happened to clear up his situation.  The matter of trades, free-agent losses (or additions) will be a huge factor.  But, ABW needs to learn to control the K-zone better, improve his OBP, and improve his defense.  If he could become a tolerable OF (on defense) he would help himself immensely.

Dozier? Kubel? Koskie? Mientkewicz? Pinto?

Kubel was a top prospect.

Pinto has barely done anything in the Majors, so I don't understand that one.

The other three did break out in AA, but they could hardly be more different from Walker; their prospect stock was hurt by a perceived lack of tools/upside. Mientkiewicz & Koskie in particular had superior plate discipline that was undervalued at the time. Those two also were much better than Walker has been due to their OBPs.

To put it another way, all three of those breakout players showed a complete offensive approach, with average, on-base, and extra-base hits. 

I certainly would be interested to know if there was a mid-level prospect who was able to do one of those three things in AA and yet develop into a MLB player. Garrett Jones would be a comp, except he actually hit .311 in AA.

You might be right about power being a worse predictor than Avg or OBP. Then again, if the industry's understanding of OBP was wrong before, maybe its wrong again? Maybe there is some other aspect of Walker's game that is more important than all of it. The ability to turn on a high fastball, perhaps. Just as easily the inability to lay off breaking pitches at the knees could render his career DOA. All we know for sure is that our understanding is never perfect, and that "non-prospects" will continue to break out and have productive MLB careers (less often than "prospects").

Right, but it's pretty easy to look back and see who panned out and who didn't. And what concerns me about Walker is that I can't find any precedent for a player with his profile going on to MLB success.

Whereas, lesser prospects who have an across-the-board breakout in AA are easy to find, even the Twins alone had several you pointed out.

Right, but it's pretty easy to look back and see who panned out and who didn't. And what concerns me about Walker is that I can't find any precedent for a player with his profile going on to MLB success.

 

Whereas, lesser prospects who have an across-the-board breakout in AA are easy to find, even the Twins alone had several you pointed out.

If you lay out your profile to include: Led every full season in minors in HRs; RBI;  & TB's and finished Top 3 in scoring during each of those full seasons - I tend to believe you find no other player with that profile.  FIND THAT PLAYER? ANYWHERE?

Note: you can't include SO to that led the league statistical profile, because he did drop his K rate to 20% in 2013 from 30% in 2012.  Travis Harrison actually led the team that year.  Walker was 8th in the league that year as well.  Has shown ability to drop K Rate.  Just saying.  Can't say never..........

Some statistical follow-up:

I went onto the Baseball Cube, which produces a limited range of historical minor league reports. I pulled the top 200 home run hitters (individual season) for all three AA leagues from 2001-2015, for a total of 600 player seasons (a player could have multiple entries if he repeated AA).

That shockingly pasted right from html into google sheets. I added a few things for sorting and then pivoted the data.

Right now, the gap between Walker's BB rate and K rate would be 598th out of 600. That is just mind boggling. The player-seasons I thought were most similar, give or take:

Joe Dunigan, 2012

Brad Eldred, 2004

Rob Stratton, 2001

Steven Moya, 2014

Telvin Nash, 2014

Tommy Mendoca, 2011

John Rodriguez, 2001

Javier Baez, 2013

Peter O'Brien, 2014

The best overall comp I came up with is Brad Eldred. Severe plate discipline problems, good power. In 2003 he hit 28 homers in A-ball, in 2004 he hit 30 between hi-A and AA, and in 2005 he hit 40 between AA, AAA, and MLB. But he finished his MLB career with 90 games played, a .203 average, and a .675 OPS.

I was actually surprised at how historically bad Walker's plate discipline is. Before I would have given him a 5% chance, but now I'm struggling with even those odds.

If you lay out your profile to include: Led every full season in minors in HRs; RBI;  & TB's and finished Top 3 in scoring during each of those full seasons - I tend to believe you find no other player with that profile.  FIND THAT PLAYER? ANYWHERE?

 

Note: you can't include SO to that led the league statistical profile, because he did drop his K rate to 20% in 2013 from 30% in 2012.  Travis Harrison actually led the team that year.  Walker was 8th in the league that year as well.  Has shown ability to drop K Rate.  Just saying.  Can't say never..........

You are right. They would be hard to find. The best prospects don't stay the full season at the same level. They would do well in all aspects and move up in June. It is really difficult to lead your full season level in home runs or RBIs or even be among the top three when you don't stay there a full season.

If you limit yourself to only those players who played the full season at A, A+ and AA you would have a very skewed group void of most good major leaguers.

You are right. They would be hard to find. The best prospects don't stay the full season at the same level. They would do well in all aspects and move up in June. It is really difficult to lead your full season level in home runs or RBIs or even be among the top three when you don't stay there a full season.

If you limit yourself to only those players who played the full season at A, A+ and AA you would have a very skewed group void of most good major leaguers.

As you are right.  That is the usual path for most top prospects.  Mid season promotions.

That being said:

What are the odds of the guy with the second worst BB/K rate according to drivelikejehu's research - SCORING more than everyone in his league every year?  He has batted 4th - 5th - 6th - and 7th in his career too.  Not saying that the BB/K rate thing is ok.  Terrible!  I'm saying he has freaky success in too many areas to be clumped with normal prospect analysis.  Anomaly  - Therefore hard for me to say probable Bust.

Just heard Buxton promoted to MLB Twins BTW

HR #17 and RBI #53 - 7 games left in 1st half of AA season

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=164227183&sid=t498

17 doubles (team high) and 17 home runs (minor league high) is an impressive stat line.   

With all of Walker's K's - He has reached base 78 times this year either by BB or Hit.  Of those 78 times his XBH have put him in scoring position 46% of the time he reaches base.

Sano has reached base 86 times via BB or Hit and his XBH have put him in scoring position 29% of the time he reaches base.

Harrison has reached base 85 times via BB or Hit and his XBH have put him in scoring position 24% of the time he reaches base.

Kepler has reached base 83 times via BB or Hit and his XBH have put him in scoring position 31% of the time he reaches base.

They have all reached base amazingly with similar numbers (78 to 85 times).  Walker, Sano, Harrison, and Kepler all have high numbers for the amounts of time they are in scoring position.  This is one of the main reasons the Lookouts are so potent offensively in AA this year.  Opportunities to score and everyone taking advantage in their own way.  By either getting in scoring position or driving in runs when fellow teammates do get in position.  or both

Walker being in scoring position 46% of the time he reaches base via XBH is probably the reason he ranks so well in Run Scoring over the years.  Walker is currently 2nd in the Southern league in runs scored as well, which is good for 3rd in all of AA along with Sano.

Walker has moved up the ladder one level per year at a time, but right now I would be real tempted to move him up to AAA for the second half of the season. I think the real question (and it's a legitimate one, imo) is whether his propensity to K will eventually adversely affect those otherwise impressive offensive numbers.

It's a serious enough question that I don't think he's a guy you want to have skip a level and promote directly to MLB from AA. He has obviously shown that striking out a bit much in AA isn't causing a problem for the rest of his game, so you might as well see if that holds true at AAA. If it does, he just may be a much more athletic Adam Dunn (and I'd certainly welcome that).

Walker has moved up the ladder one level per year at a time, but right now I would be real tempted to move him up to AAA for the second half of the season. I think the real question (and it's a legitimate one, imo) is whether his propensity to K will eventually adversely affect those otherwise impressive offensive numbers.

 

It's a serious enough question that I don't think he's a guy you want to have skip a level and promote directly to MLB from AA. He has obviously shown that striking out a bit much in AA isn't causing a problem for the rest of his game, so you might as well see if that holds true at AAA. If it does, he just may be a much more athletic Adam Dunn (and I'd certainly welcome that).

Adam Dunn played half a season in Chattanooga when he was 21, two years younger than Walker.

He hit .343/.449/.664. He struck out HALF as often, and walked TWICE as often. 

Good MLB players do not have the problems Walker does in AA. I did some looking, mentioned on this thread, and cannot find a single player with his issues that went on to success. The guy is a home run derby player, he cannot hit real pitching and is not a real prospect.

(deleted by author cuz it's just not worth it)

Adam Dunn played half a season in Chattanooga when he was 21, two years younger than Walker.

 

He hit .343/.449/.664. He struck out HALF as often, and walked TWICE as often. 

 

Good MLB players do not have the problems Walker does in AA. I did some looking, mentioned on this thread, and cannot find a single player with his issues that went on to success. The guy is a home run derby player, he cannot hit real pitching and is not a real prospect.

Who cares? The vast majority of these guys aren't "prospects" or don't have successful 10+ year careers in MLB. The guy has already shown himself to be a good baseball player by what he is doing in AA. Clearly he has issues, but they have yet to have an effect on his production as he has moved up the ladder. I'm not sure why you are so hell bent on proving Adam Brett Walker is a bad baseball player and has no chance to make it in the majors.

It's minor league baseball. It's baseball for Christ's sake. I'm not sure why we have to be so critical and analytical all the time. It completely takes the fun out of it. Let's enjoy what these guys are doing instead of constantly looking for their flaws.