Young Guns

As much as the Twins notionally are desperate for a decent starting pitcher (among other things), in reality that's basically 1-2 wins at best and little help in a putative playoff run. The benefit is limited.

Now, 1 or 2 wins can be significant. But who knows what will be available for a price that makes sense.

As much as the Twins notionally are desperate for a decent starting pitcher (among other things), in reality that's basically 1-2 wins at best and little help in a putative playoff run. The benefit is limited.

 

Now, 1 or 2 wins can be significant. But who knows what will be available for a price that makes sense.

I think a decent starting pitcher (someone that a worthwhile prospect is needed for) is more than 1-2 wins better than Gibson/Hughes. There is upgrading a rotation from an alright 5th starter and upgrading from something that is completely awful.

But I still don't make that move. I target another Santiago type that can be picked up almost as a salary dump for a marginal prospect. For example Clayton Richard. This move is the epitome of boring.

None of this makes much sense to me.

 

I don't understand how, on the one hand, we don't have a good enough minor league system for any other team to want any of it in trade, but if we just hold onto those minor leaguers, they'll magically turn into everything needed to win the WS.

 

I don't understand what the previous regime has to do with what the current regime should do, nor do I believe the holes the team had "for the last decade" have anything to do with 2017.

 

I don't understand arguing, on the one hand, that good players by themselves don't win ("Trout"), and then arguing, on the other hand, against providing them some help.

 

I don't understand arguing that the Twins won't sign high dollar free agents, and also arguing against trades.  That leaves only the minor leagues...and you've already said the minor league system doesn't have much talent.

 

Somewhat off topic, but I also strongly disagree that it "takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs."  It takes all of the 25 man, and most all of the 40 man roster to get to the playoffs.  Once you're there, it's about the top 15-18 players on your team.  You said it yourself...you'd be fine with Berrios starting games 1, 4 and 7 in a series.  You're only using 3 or 4 starters in the postseason, and only the top 3 or 4 relievers will be used in any significant way.  Nobody is starting the utility IFer in the playoffs.  You don't need, or use, a 25 man roster in the playoffs.

 

The Twins minor league system has already provided them with the basics needed to win.  If Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler, et al aren't good enough to contend in 2017, might as well trade them all off and start over.  But they are good enough, so what's needed is to man up and go find the help they need, and start doing it now.

Can't like this post enough Chief.  Good starting pitching is the hardest thing to find in baseball.  Unless you want to pin the hopes of Sano, Buxton, Kep, et al on an expensive reclamation project like Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, or Pelfrey, A trade is the only way to acquire an actual quality arm without having to pay over-the-top prices for more years than you will contend.  I'm not saying those aren't good investments, what with insurance and the ability to trade players midway through expensive contracts, but our team doesn't do that.  

I think the part of Pettit's post that struck the wrong nerve was use of the term ANY PROSPECT in suggesting that the Twins simply hold out and cross our fingers.  A good organization will always look to add value and talent.  One name left of his list was Kohl Stewart.  Twins fans have been nervous about him for 3 years.  MLB followers for about 1.5.  Now he's not really named among our future pieces.  Maybe we missed the opportunity to trade him, maybe someone else thinks they can turn him around.  If Stewart never makes it, if Wimmer never makes it, well, it's better to get something rather than nothing, especially with first rounders.  Kiriloff is coming off surgery.  Jay is by no means a sure thing.  Gonsalves has limited upside, and a big reputation.  Ditto Nick Gordon and Zack Granite (IMO). We have some pieces.  I don't want to get rid of them, but they're not all going to be better than league average players, and some of them will probably be bad or not make it all.
 

The Twins minor league system has already provided them with the basics needed to win.  If Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler, et al aren't good enough to contend in 2017, might as well trade them all off and start over.  But they are good enough, so what's needed is to man up and go find the help they need, and start doing it now.

The Twins have some good position players but are nowhere close to having "the basics needed to win." They have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball - they can deal every single prospect and still be way below average. There is no in-season solution to the problem.

The Twins may well need to deal prospects for pitching, but the time to do it is in the off-season, and in conjunction with free agent signings. They didn't go all-in for this year after losing 103 games the year before . . . if you think that was a mistake, fine, but it's too late now.

None of this makes much sense to me.

 

I don't understand how, on the one hand, we don't have a good enough minor league system for any other team to want any of it in trade, but if we just hold onto those minor leaguers, they'll magically turn into everything needed to win the WS.

 

I don't understand what the previous regime has to do with what the current regime should do, nor do I believe the holes the team had "for the last decade" have anything to do with 2017.

 

I don't understand arguing, on the one hand, that good players by themselves don't win ("Trout"), and then arguing, on the other hand, against providing them some help.

 

I don't understand arguing that the Twins won't sign high dollar free agents, and also arguing against trades.  That leaves only the minor leagues...and you've already said the minor league system doesn't have much talent.

 

Somewhat off topic, but I also strongly disagree that it "takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs."  It takes all of the 25 man, and most all of the 40 man roster to get to the playoffs.  Once you're there, it's about the top 15-18 players on your team.  You said it yourself...you'd be fine with Berrios starting games 1, 4 and 7 in a series.  You're only using 3 or 4 starters in the postseason, and only the top 3 or 4 relievers will be used in any significant way.  Nobody is starting the utility IFer in the playoffs.  You don't need, or use, a 25 man roster in the playoffs.

 

The Twins minor league system has already provided them with the basics needed to win.  If Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler, et al aren't good enough to contend in 2017, might as well trade them all off and start over.  But they are good enough, so what's needed is to man up and go find the help they need, and start doing it now.

Bingo!

The Diamondbacks call. They have thrown in the towel and want to save some money toward a rebuild. You negotiate. We give them Randy Rosario, Felix Jorge, Kyle Stewart, Stephen Gansalves, Englb Vielma, Daniel Palka, Zach Granite, Tanner English and Zander Weil. We get Zach Greinke. We're taking on $150M+.

This is how the Tigers have restocked their MLB team for years. We can't afford to do that kind of thing as often as 

The D'backs would laugh at this joke of an offer. No one wants guys like Jorge, Vielma, Palka, etc. Classic internet fantasy trade.

Add one legit starter, 2 relievers from the minors, and suddenly this team looks a lot different to me.

 

Nobody--NOBODY--has dominant pitching up and down the staff.   And if you DO have it, it's fleeting.  Look at the Mets from a couple years ago...everybody's darling, all that young pitching.  They were going to dominate baseball for half a decade.  

 

You don't need 5 great starters to get to the postseason.  And you shouldn't count on tomorrow being better than today, if you just wait.

Who meets your definition of legit starter?

Also, what is your rest-of-season projection if the Twins stand pat? Fangraphs has it at 78 - the WAR benefit from your suggestion is not even close to enough. 

That's doesn't answer the question. The answer, for most people, is "yes".

Now take out Jorge and Rosario and add in Fernando Romero. Take out Vielma and add in Gordon.

Now do you do that trade?

I would have to do an analysis before I could determine what I'd give up. Note that Greinke has a limited no trade clause and might very well exercise it to block a trade to the Twins.

That's doesn't answer the question. The answer, for most people, is "yes".

Now take out Jorge and Rosario and add in Fernando Romero. Take out Vielma and add in Gordon.

Now do you do that trade?

I do that trade. It is too much money and too many years (age) but unless the Twins add a front line starter (or two) they aren't going anywhere. The rest of the pieces are starting to fall into place.

1.  legit starter:  better than what the Twins are running out at 4 and 5 right now.  

 

2.  I pay very little attention to Fangraphs, even less to their projections, and even less than that to WAR, so I don't care about any of that.  The Twins are currently on pace for 90 wins.  We're a quarter of the way through the season.  That's reality, and with some help, I see no reason they can't come close to maintaining that pace.

Well, there are AAAA pitchers that meet your criteria, so it is basically a meaningless standard.

You can not care about projections all you want, but every front office considers how strong of a club they have before making major decisions. You're not considering the issue seriously if you don't. The Twins are 25% of the way through the season and 1 game up on Cleveland, a clearly superior team. Making ill-informed decisions based on gut feel is obviously not a path to success. 

Just because so far as you can "see," the Twins are close to a 90-win caliber team, doesn't mean that objectively your gut feelings have any validity.