What's the Best-Case Scenario for the 2026 Twins Bullpen?

Last year around this time, Twins fans were buzzing about the team's bullpen outlook. With Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax leading a deep unit, Minnesota was projected to have the highest fWAR in baseball from relief pitchers – one of the big reasons for optimism surrounding the 2025 club.

In some respects, the bullpen was living up to this billing through midseason. At the point that they traded everyone away last July, the Twins did indeed rank first in the American League in fWAR at the position. And yet, the team was well below .500 and fading from relevance, largely because – for all the strong underlying stats and indicators – Twins relievers weren't making the desired impact. 

They ranked fourth in FIP but 23rd in ERA and 25th in WPA. The talent and ability across the relief corps were plain to see, but these pitchers were lapsing too often when it mattered most. It proved costly.

So it goes with bullpens. We're talking about small samples and situational outcomes. Sometimes a good group of relievers amounts to sub-par effectiveness overall. The Twins are hoping for the opposite this year: a bullpen that is greater than the sum of its parts. 

Some of the outside factors have changed. There's a new bullpen coach leading the crew in LaTroy Hawkins, and a new manager determining usage in Derek Shelton. Other factors will likely remain constant: these relievers will be protecting slim leads (if that) and the defense behind them is not going to be very good. 

Despite parting with their three best relievers, and not replacing them with anyone on remotely the same tier, the Twins still have some intriguing arms in the mix and a track record for successful reliever development under Pete Maki. They have significantly less proven quality to work with than in the past, and the pressure will be high under Tom Pohlad's "be competitive" edict. 

For the Twins bullpen to hold its own, they need most, if not all, of the following things to happen. 

At least one more impact arm joins the fold
There's no one left in free agency that's going to provide a slam-dunk upgrade at this point, but there are at least a few wild-cards offering the upside to be a real difference-maker if things break right. Michael Kopech is the standout name, but Shelby Miller and José Leclerc are other examples of veteran free agents who've been dominant at times. Trades are also still an option.

The hope here would be to catch lightning in a bottle, if even for a temporary spell, until others break through later in the season. I'm reminded of how Brandon Kintzler sprung up as an out-of-nowhere All-Star closer in 2017, helping that team shock the baseball world coming off a 103-loss campaign.

Cole Sands recaptures his 2024 form
It's clear that the Twins are really counting on this. The only remaining holdover from the previous late-inning relief mix was one of its top performers in 2024, posting a 3.28 ERA and 85-to-12 K/BB ratio in 71 innings. He took a step backward last year, but the peripherals weren't as bad as the ERA and the stuff still looked pretty good for the most part.

Sands in 2024 showed the profile of a credible relief ace. Last year he was barely good enough to trust in the sixth inning. In order to have a shot at competence this year, Minnesota's bullpen needs him to gravitate back toward his previous breakthrough form.

Taylor Rogers and Justin Topa are extremely reliable
These aren't ceiling-raisers but they can bring a needed level of sturdiness and steadiness to the table. Both in their mid-30s, Rogers and Topa aren't going to blow anyone away. You don't want them facing the opposing lineup's biggest threats in the highest leverage. But they've been around the block, they're crafty and they've both been perfectly solid in terms of recent results. Since 2023, Rogers has a 3.16 ERA in 162 innings and Topa's at 3.15 in 131 innings.

Continue to operate at that level and these seasoned hurlers will play key roles in stabilizing the pen with experience.

Surprising depth emerges
What really worries me about the Twins bullpen is the depth. You take the three guys mentioned above, plus Eric Orze, plus hopefully one more decent addition, and you've got the potential makings of an okay unit. But as we know, people are going to get hurt. Probably in spring training. And then you start digging into the thin layers of depth left behind from the deadline purge.

It's not just downgrading from, say, Jax to Topa in the eighth inning that hurts you. It's the corresponding downgrades for the fourth and fifth right-handers in the bullpen, where Topa used to slot. And it's the guys who are stepping into those spots if anyone above them goes on the injured list. As things stand we are dangerously close to seeing a large amount of innings go to the likes of Travis Adams, Marco Raya, etc. 

They Twins are going to need some unexpected and largely unknowns to step up and hold their own. This is where their self-belief will really be put to the test. Keep a close eye on the non-roster invites this spring to see who might establish themselves atop the reinforcement ranks.

Prospects and converted starters quickly break through
Ultimately, this will make or break the 2026 Twins bullpen. There's no two ways around it. It's clear that the team's plan is to transition some of their many starting prospects into relief roles, mirroring the approach that yielded Jax, Sands, Louie Varland and others. But who specifically will they push down this path, and how quickly will it pay dividends, if at all?

The Twins have enough MLB-ready pitching outside of their Big 3 vets to instill some level of confidence, but they've got work to do in determining how it will all shake out. It's great to say, in theory, that a few arms out of a group that includes Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, David Festa and Mick Abel will develop into effective bullpen arms, but putting that plan into practice is another story. You've got to get the players on board, you've got to accept the trade-offs in terms of SP depth, and you've got to make the switch actually click.

It's not difficult for me to envision, say, Matthews and Festa offsetting a considerable amount of the dominance lost in relievers like Jax and Duran. Will it actually happen, and how long will it take? This question, more than any other, will dictate the upside of the Twins' relief corps in 2026.

What am I missing? What else needs to play out this year for the Twins to find surprising bullpen success? Or is it a moot point given the personnel and timelines at hand? I'd love to hear from you in the comments.