What if the Twins Don't Make Any More Offseason Moves?

It has been a painfully slow offseason for the Minnesota Twins and their fans. Aside from the basic, offseason business (40-man roster decisions, Rule 5, arbitration), the Twins have made a handful of minor-league signings and one trade. That’s it. 

So, if you’re a Twins fan like me, I’m sure you’re often asked, “Are they going to do anything this offseason?” 

In the early years of the Derek Falvey Era, the answer would have been, “Certainly.” It may not have always happened before February, but the Twins were active, even in some price range sections that they previously had not shopped in. Fans understand that there is a budget, but with Falvey, the sense was that he pushed that every year. Until last year when ownership insisted that he cut $30-35 million from the payroll. And now this offseason, the goal is to remain pretty similar to 2024, if not down just a little bit. 

We have seen free agents such as Max Kepler, Kyle Farmer, Caleb Thielbar, and Carlos Santana sign elsewhere as free agents. Even guys like Diego Castillo (the pitcher), Steven Okert, Matt Bowman, Caleb Boushley, Jay Jackson have signed elsewhere while Manuel Margot is still unsigned. The Twins did bring back Scott Blewett and Daniel Duarte on minor-league deals though. Alex Kirilloff abruptly retired. 

But that doesn’t mean that the cupboard is bare. Honestly, it doesn’t necessarily have to mean that the team can’t compete to return to the playoffs in 2025. 

What might the Twins Opening Day roster look like if the season had to start today? Note: the season doesn’t actually start for nearly three months, so assume that the Twins will have a few more transactions by then. 

Starting Rotation (5): RHP Pablo Lopez, RHP  Bailey Ober, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Chris Paddack

Summary: Pablo Lopez is a borderline ace. His salary jumps precipitously in 2025, but with some of the offseason free agent pitcher signings, it appears that the Twins were wise to lock him up nearly two years ago. Bailey Ober continues to improve. He has pitched quite well since he was first called up to the big leagues. He is in his first year of arbitration. So is Joe Ryan who also has continued to get better and make adjustments since his debut. Unfortunately, he missed the final six weeks of the season but should be on track to return by opening day. Simeon Woods Richardson came on early last season and did not give up his rotation spot. He made his starts and he showed some signs that he can be a mid-rotation starter. And, I’ve included Chris Paddack here for now as well even though rumors are that the Twins may want to trade him. When healthy, he can provide some quality innings. He just hasn’t been healthy since joining the Twins. 

Next In Line: RHP David Festa, RHP Zebby Matthews 

David Festa came up and also showed signs of high potential starting stuff. He’s got the pitches and generally throws strikes. He will just need to be more consistent with them Zebby Matthews began the 2024 season with the High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. He dominated his way through the system, and by mid-August made his debut. Certainly he was rushed a little quicker than they may have wanted, but the stuff is there. He could use time in St. Paul to continue developing, but these two are ready when needed. 

Others on the 40-man roster: RHP Travis Adams, LHP Brent Headrick, RHP Marco Raya. 

Others in the upper levels: RHP Andrew Morris, RHP Cory Lewis, RHP Huascar Ynoa, RHP Randy Dobnak, LHP Christian MacLeod, RHP C.J. Culpepper, RHP Kyle Jones, RHP Pierson Ohl. 

Bullpen (8): RHP Jhoan Duran, RHP Griffin Jax, RHP Cole Sands, LHP Kody Funderburk, RHP Jorge Alcala, RHP Justin Topa, RHP Michael Tonkin, RHP Eiberson Castellano (Rule 5), RHP Brock Stewart (IL)

Summary: Duran may have had a down season, but the potential remains for him to be dominant at the end of games. Remember, he began the season on the IL. Meanwhile, Jax became one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. Could he return to starting? Maybe. Cole Sands was the most improved Twins player in 2024. He turned question marks into exclamation points and looks to continue to gain confidence. Jorge Alcala had his option picked up and at times looked like a late-inning option. Justin Topa missed nearly the full 2024 season with a knee injury, but the Twins signed him, Tonkin and Stewart to provide some veteran bullpen options. With Caleb Thielbar signing in Chicago, Funderburk is one of just two lefty pitchers on the 40-man roster. I have Eiberson Castellano on the roster, working as a long reliever, since he was the team’s Rule 5 pick. He has to remain on the roster all season or offered back to his original team. 

Next In Line: RHP Louie Varland, RHP Ronny Henriquez, LHP Brent Headrick, RHP Scott Blewett. 

Louie Varland is a big leaguer. No question about that in my mind, and he could be dominant out of the bullpen. I think he should be on the Opening Day roster, but for now I have them keeping Tonkin and Castellano on the roster so as not to lose them. Henriquez showed at times last year that he can be a really good, multi-inning reliever in the big leagues. And, Headrick could start or relieve. He’s the other lefty on the 40-man roster. He missed most of the 2024 season with a forearm injury but returned late in the year. And, my advice would be not to give up on Matt Canterino. He has tremendous stuff and a great attitude, and what a story it will be when he gets an opportunity in the big leagues! 

Others on the 40-man roster: Matt Canterino .

Others in the Upper levels: RHP Daniel Duarte, RHP Darren McCaughan, LHP Jaylen Nowlin, RHP Kyle Bischoff, RHP Ryan Jensen, RHP John Stankiewicz, RHP Michael Martinez, LHP Aaron Rozek, RHP Cody Laweryson, 

Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez

Summary: If I’m in charge, I would try hard to lock up Jeffers to a four-plus year contract extension. While he hasn’t always been consistent from month to month, he provides solid offense, include 20-homer power. The Twins have reportedly tried to trade Vazquez for awhile, but they won’t get anything in return without eating some of his contract, in which case, they might as well just keep him. That said Jair Camargo is ready to roll. 

Next in Line: Jair Camargo. 

Camargo has provided a powerful bat for the Saints the past two seasons, and he is a solid backstop with strong communication and leadership skills. He could handle the backup role. And, while he has been a catcher in the minor leagues, newly-acquired Mickey Gasper is really more of a DH/1B than a catcher. That said, if his bat is good, and he could play adequate first base or second base, he’s fine as the #3/emergency catcher. 

Others on 40-man roster: Mickey Gasper

Others in the Upper levels: Patrick Winkel, Ricardo Olivar, Noah Cardenas, Andrew Cossetti, Alex Isola, 

Infielders (6): Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro

Summary: We know that Carlos Correa will be the team’s shortstop anytime he is healthy. We know that Royce Lewis will start at one of the infield positions, second base or third base, when he is healthy. For Lewis, I think it’s only fair to pick a position in spring training and go with it rather than have him bounce around. I believe that the Twins should look to lock up Brooks Lee long-term right now and hand him the position that Lewis doesn’t play. Willi Castro can play all three of those infield positions as well as at least two outfield spots. 

That leaves the big question mark at first base. With Carlos Santana going back to Cleveland and Alex Kirilloff retiring, who will play first base? For me, I would ask Justin Morneau to be at spring training nearly every day and work with Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien on first base defense every single day. Invite Mickey Gasper and Yunior Severino and Mike Ford. Aaron Sabato can be there, and so can Luke Keaschall. We have seen the kind of impact that Miranda and Julien can have on the offense when they are going well. 

Next in Line: Mickey Gasper, Michael Helman

If the Twins were to play Edouard Julien and Jose Miranda at first base and DH, then having Gasper on the roster as the #3 catcher and the backup first baseman can make some sense. Michael Helman has played a lot of minor league games at second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions. There is a ton of value in that, especially if Willi Castro remains an everyday player. 

Others on 40-man roster:  Mickey Gasper, Michael Helman 

Others in the upper levels: Mike Ford, Yunior Severino, Aaron Sabato, Ben Ross, Payton Eeles, Jorel Ortega, Jake Rucker, Tanner Schobel, Luke Keaschall, Anthony Prato, 

Outfielders (5): Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey

Summary: For nearly a decade, we have been able to play Max Kepler’s name in this group. His contract ran out and he recently signed with the Phillies. However, the Twins have some talented outfielders who, frankly, outperformed Kepler last year. It starts with Byron Buxton who returned to center field last year and surpassed 100 games played. Flanking Buxton will be a couple of lefty-hitting corner outfielders in Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Both have had success and did so in 2024. Both are ready to take another big step forward in 2025. All three are first-round picks. So was Austin Martin who debuted early in the 2024 season and showed his athleticism in the outfield and on the base paths. He could be a platoon option in left field. He’s got a good eye at the plate. And DaShawn Keirsey’s speed and defense alone should give him a chance. He can play all three outfield spots including a strong centerfield. And, his offensive numbers in 2024 show what kind of stat line filler he can be. 

Next in Line: Michael Helman, Emmanuel Rodriguez

As noted above, Helman’s utility make him a valuable player in the organization. Along with the ability to play six defensive positions pretty well, he has raked in St. Paul the last couple of seasons, and he can steal bases. Emmanuel Rodriguez is a Top 25 prospect in all of baseball, and he’s been putting up offensive numbers since his pro debut in 2021. He missed a lot of time last year with a hand/wrist injury but still put up numbers when he was on the field and ended his season in St. Paul. 

Others on the 40-man roster: Michael Helman, Emmanuel Rodriguez, 

Others in the Upper levels: Allan Cerda, Kala’i Rosario, Walker Jenkins, Anthony Prato, Carson McCusker, Will Holland, Jeferson Morales, Kyler Fedko. 

Potential Lineup vs RHP: Brooks Lee 2B, Carlos Correa SS, Trevor Larnach LF, Royce Lewis 3B, Byron Buxton CF, Matt Wallner RF, Edouard Julien 1B, Ryan Jeffers C, Willi Castro DH. 

Potential Lineup vs LHP: Byron Buxton CF, Carlos Correa SS, Royce Lewis 3B, Ryan Jeffers C, Jose Miranda 1B, Brooks Lee 2B, Austin Martin LF, Matt Wallner/Trevor Larnach RF, Willi Castro DH. 

So what do you think? In my opinion, there remains an awful lot of talent on the roster. Players lost this offseason can be replaced by players with more upside. The top three starters are all very exciting, and there is some depth for starting pitchers with guys who have some big league innings under their belts now, or should be debuting in 2025.