Was the Manuel Margot Investment Worth It for the Twins?

The Twins decided to trade for Manuel Margot this spring, as Michael A. Taylor’s free-agency staredown dragged on. Instead of signing a platoon outfielder, the Twins swapped crowded-out assets with the Dodgers, sending Noah Miller to get Margot and minor-league infielder Rayne Doncon. Los Angeles also covered part of Margot’s salary. With such a low acquisition cost, has Margot been worth it?

The Twins' main priority in adding Margot was obtaining a right-handed bat to patrol the outfield. Ideally, this hitter would also be able to fill in at center field, which is likely why the Twins looked at a Margot-type player, instead of a traditional bat-first corner outfield type.

Margot has adequately filled the offensive need. He typically leads off against left-handed pitchers and has posted a .728 OPS in those matchups, about 6% above the league average. It’s nothing to write home about, but it is much better than taking any given left-handed hitter and putting them in those matchups. By definition, he's above replacement-level.

Defensively, the Twins have been very fortunate with Byron Buxton’s health. It was apparent immediately that Margot was not an option to play frequently in center, once the Twins saw him in the outfield. He’s still played there occasionally, and is worth -1 Outs Above Average there. Unfortunately, Margot has been pretty brutal everywhere, with a -1 mark in right field and a -3 mark in left. By Outs Above Average, he's been worse than Matt Wallner, whose reputation as a hulking, slow defensive player is at least outweighed by his offensive ceiling. 

Worth noting in the acquisition cost is that the trade to acquire Margot has gone the Twins' way, regardless of his performance. Noah Miller looks like a tremendous defender at shortstop, but whether he can hit in MLB is still a concern. His .668 OPS in High-A this season is his best since his debut professional season, but it's still deeply unimpressive. Meanwhile, Doncon has been very successful since his arrival. An .838 OPS earned him a promotion to High-A, where his bat is still roughly 15% above league average. It’s possible the Twins would trade Miller for Doncon straight up today, if they magically had the chance to do it again.

Has Margot been worth it himself, though? It depends on how you look at it. The actual cost was meager. The opportunity cost is the real question. As a competing team, the Twins are likely looking to win trades on the MLB side, rather than in the exchange of low minor-league players. 

Looking just at Margot, it’s hard to call it a success. His performance against left-handed pitching has met the bare minimum threshold of being positive, but it’s easy to argue that the defense has greatly outweighed his bat. A different player (such as Tommy Pham, with his .865 OPS against lefties) would have certainly fit the poor fielding corner outfield role much better. With Margot so thinly holding onto an above-average line against lefties, one could argue that an internal option could have filled that role just as well.

The Twins' record likely doesn’t look much different without Margot. He’s certainly had a handful of big moments, but these haven’t entirely outweighed the negatives, as evidenced by his -0.1 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs. Margot is also well in the negatives for Win Probability Added, which is to be expected considering his being approximately 0 for 100 pinch-hitting.

Under different financial circumstances, the Twins likely would have aimed higher in the offseason, or even added a replacement for Margot at the trade deadline. In this version of reality, though, the Twins bet on a bounceback from Margot this spring, and it’s not been particularly impactful, one way or the other.

Was Margot a worthwhile addition to the Twins? Should they have added a Tommy Pham or rolled with someone like Michael Helman internally? Does the Doncon return make up for Margot’s production? Let us know below!