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    Twins Young Position Players Deserve Your Attention


    Cody Schoenmann

    With veteran players not performing well, most of the Twins offense is getting manufactured by young homegrown talent. It's time they get their flowers. 

    Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

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    In the workplace, inexperience often gets viewed as a flaw or a hurdle that those forced to deal with the inexperienced party at hand bear with until milestones get reached, and sustainable progress is made. Once that person reaches a certain threshold of competence, they are then thrust into action and forced to trust their instincts while sharpening the complex skills and concepts they, in the grand scheme of things, very recently learned.

    Fortunately, in most career paths, mistakes, even on a large scale, are forgiven, and if it takes months or even years for one to feel gratified with how they perform in their career of choice, that is perfectly fine. 

    Unfortunately, the margin for error on a division title-seeking professional sports team is meager. If one makes a mistake, especially on a large scale, they will receive public scrutiny and have that moment dangled over their head for all time.

    Remember Bill Buckner or, dare I say, Gary Anderson?

    This level of daunting expectations mixed with unrelenting pressure would make most people fold. Yet, many fanbases expect professional athletes to keep a sense of composure and, if something goes wrong, pick themselves up by their bootstraps and focus on what is ahead.

    Possessing this specific mind frame is particularly expected of the veteran players on the team.

    The Twins' best position players entering the 2023 season were expected to be Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco, and off-season acquisitions Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, and Christian Vázquez.

    Despite playing different positions and having categorically different roles on the team, all of these players, except Miranda, shared one thing: veteran status. 

    Traditionally, veteran players on a team tend to bring a sense of consistency that counteracts the volatile nature of younger players. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for the 2023 Twins. The opposite has been the case.

    Here is how much wRC+, which is the most comprehensive rate statistic for hitters as it takes into account the weight of offensive action and then adjusts them to the specific ballpark the action took place in, the eight veterans listed above have accumulated:

    (Note: League average for wRC+ is 100)

    • Buxton (99)
    • Correa (90)
    • Kepler (109)
    • Polanco (96)
    • Farmer (92)
    • Gallo (100)
    • Taylor (89)
    • Vázquez (66) 

    Of the eight veterans listed, only one has generated an above-league-average wRC+, with Kepler creating 9% more runs than the league average. 

    In a microlens, if someone were to state that at the 70% point of the season, seven out of eight of the players that were expected to be primary contributors were performing at a below-league-average rate, one would reasonably assume that the team is also performing at a below-league-average rate and has little to no chance at making the postseason. 

    Oddly enough, the Twins are 59-54, in first place, and hold a 4.5 game lead over the second-place Cleveland Guardians.

    How has this happened?

    Initially, much of the credit needs to get handed to the Twins pitching staff. According to Fangraphs, the Twins have the second-best rotation in Major League Baseball by fWAR, accumulating 11.8 fWAR up to this point, and the eighteenth-best bullpen in baseball by fWAR, getting 2.5 fWAR to this point. 

    Combining the rotation and bullpen, the Twins have the third-best pitching staff in baseball, accumulating 14.2 fWAR, which ranks just behind the Phillies with 16.6 fWAR and the Mariners with 15.2 fWAR. 

    The Twins pitching staff has been incredible all season, particularly their starting rotation of Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda.

    With this in mind, what other faction of the 2023 Twins deserves the second-highest amount of credit? The answer lies within the Twins young position players.

    The Twins young position players, contrary to the struggling veterans on the team, have stepped up to the occasion and helped this team find their footing offensively. 

    The offensive renaissance the 2023 Twins desperately needed has been headlined by Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner.

    To do the same practice as earlier, here is how much wRC+ the five young players listed above have accumulated this season:

    • Jeffers (151)
    • Julien (151)
    • Kirilloff (124)
    • Lewis (131)
    • Wallner (165)

    Unlike seven of the eight veterans listed earlier, all five young position players perform well above league average, highlighted by Julien creating 51% more runs than the league average in a relatively large sample size. 

    Some of these statistics are bloated, as Wallner and Lewis have generated relatively low sample sizes this season. Even so, there has been little to no reason to suspect that they won't maintain an at least above-league-average rate of production. 

    Small sample size aside, the Twins five young hitters have undoubtedly risen to the occasion and contributed game-to-game, especially when it felt like none of the veterans could.

    Not only are the Twins young position players performing well, but they are also stepping up in high-leverage moments and showing signs of possessing the perceived to be ever-important yet not real clutch gene. 

    Lewis hit a game-tying single while facing the Astros on May 29 and against the Rays on June 7, Julien hit a game-tying home run versus the Royals on July 3, and Wallner most recently hit a walk-off home run off Paul Sewald of the Diamondbacks on August 7. 

    Another recent distinguished moment was witnessing Jeffers, a catcher, hit two home runs on Joe Mauer's Twins Hall of Fame ceremony. Jeffers has finally caught on and is undoubtedly a top-five, likely top-three, catcher in the American League. Jeffers hitting two home runs that night could be perceived as a symbolic passing of the torch from the last Twins star catcher to the next.  

    As the Twins march towards the end of the season, it has become more evident than ever that the Twins young homegrown position players are not only the team's primary run producers but also the heart and soul of this year's team on the offensive side. These young players deserve a tremendous amount of appreciation for their services, and hopefully, they will get rewarded for their efforts with a division title. 

    What is happening with Jeffers, Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis, and Wallner at the Major League level feels genuinely special. And with other young position players yet to reach the Majors in Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Yunior Severino, and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. waiting in the wings at Triple-A St. Paul, the Twins future position player-wise warrants genuine optimism. 

    Do the Twins young position players deserve significant appreciation? Whose future are you looking forward to the most? Comment below.

     

     

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    12 minutes ago, joefish said:

    What is our team batting average against left handed pitchers- comparing our RH hitters vs our LH  hitters? 

    Are our left handed hitters doing worse than our right handed swingers?

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2023

    Baseball reference is your friend.

     

    1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

    Actually Baseball Reference and I have never met. 

    I even skip reading the paragraphs that are full of stats that I am too old to wanna understand. 

    But thanks for the link.

    We are smack dab in the middle of a youth movement and playoff bound. The FO needs to have kudos from the fans for dealing with above ave injuries and signing a couple key veteran backups (not gallo). I will always put Lewis at #1 because of his attitude and injuries. We need him in the lineup every day!! Keep Castro around and bring up Lee next year. Lets get younger and better!!!

    4 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

    Trouble with Julien is he is atrocious in the field. His transfer skills on double plays are lousy. And he plays so deep to try and get easier hops that players beat out hits and are safe on double play balls because of how deep he plays. Even his recent hitting makes it appear league is figuring him out like they did with Miranda. So don't count on him yet!

     

    3 hours ago, davidborton said:

    Thanks from a radio listener. We get only hints of his defensive shortages from the booth but it's much clearer here on the boards.

    How can Julien play "so deep"?  He has to stay in the dirt portion of the infield just like every one else.  He may be a foot or two deeper than a few, but hardly significant.

    On 8/9/2023 at 8:55 AM, terrydactyls said:

    When you strike out in over half your at bats, what difference does the field your playing in make?

    The point of wRc+ is to normalize statistics for the ballpark. While a K is a K everywhere, a fly out versus a home run is definitely different with, say, the short right field porch at Yankee Field versus the pretty high wall at Target Field. Once you take that into consideration, differences in OPS start to make sense, which is why Gallo, even with his flaws, gets to league average. If he played half his games this year at Yankee Field, no doubt the batting average (and number of home runs) would be higher.

    On 8/9/2023 at 9:38 AM, Cody Schoenmann said:

    Personally, I view Larnach more as a trade piece than anything else at this moment. Wallner has supplanted him on the depth chart and i’m 99% sure the Twins are going to pick up Kepler’s $10 million team option for next season. Also, if Larnach doesn’t get traded by next season, I think Keirsey Jr. will also pass him on the OF depth chart. 

    If he can't even make it out of Triple A for the Twins, his trade value is likely pretty meagre. My guess is the Twins still hope he'll catch lightning in a bottle, at least for another year or so. He's still relatively young (he's still 2 years younger than the average Triple A player).

    1 minute ago, arby58 said:

    If he can't even make it out of Triple A for the Twins, his trade value is likely pretty meagre. My guess is the Twins still hope he'll catch lightning in a bottle, at least for another year or so. He's still relatively young (he's still 2 years younger than the average Triple A player).

    My hope is that other front offices still view Larnach as a prospect rather than a Quad-A player. If Larnach still has the prospect aura around him, he could still net a reasonably substantial return, whether a one-for-one trade or part of a larger package. The Mets were essentially confirmed to be interested in Larnach, and that likely would have been in a trade for either Mark Canha or Tommy Pham. A trade for Canha or Pham would be pretty meager, like you said, but if that's the type of player Larnach may be netting by himself, I could see him being used in a package for a player like Dylan Carlson or Ryan Mountcastle, for example.




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