Twins Trade Kevin Correia, Recall Tommy Milone

And I've got news for you: a 3/24 FA contract in modern MLB is pretty much bargain bin shopping.  Not that it's entirely a bad thing -- who among us doesn't like a nice bargain bin? -- and to Ryan's credit, he's gotten a couple useful guys around that price (Willingham and Hughes).  His only foray out of the bargain bin was Nolasco (and even he was essentially just the most expensive innings eater on the market, in hindsight probably forced after the rotation disasters of 2012-2013).

Unrealistic expectations.  Bargain bin doesn't equal the 20th highest FA contract in an offseason.  It's not a massive splurge but it is not like shopping at Goodwill.

Let's consider the irony.

Almost the entire board complains that the Twins are playing veterans during a rebuild and expects every 30+ player to be traded but some also complain that the Twins aren't making big splashes into FA every season.

The fact is that the Twins have only had a few seasons to be able to spend money in FA since Target Field opened.  For the most part they have sucked during that time and they still aren't the Yankees or Red Sox.  They won't be able to spend their way out of the cellar.  Making any conclusions about a team's willingness to spend in FA based on a handful of rebuilding seasons will not give you an accurate conclusion.

FWIW - The 2012 offseason was even worse than the 2013 offseason for SP'ing.  There was buehrle and C.J. Wilson (15M/yr) and Edwin Jackson.  I'm certainly not going to criticize anyone for not spending silly money on average at best (and potentially much worse) starting pitching.

You could criticize him for not making brilliant moves like trading a setup guy for a cheap average starter (Travis Wood), for picking up a young failed prospect (Arrieta) that has turned into a stud and a new failed prospect (turner).  But he actually has been doing this with his best trade chips by adding May and Meyer while buying low (not bargain bin) on Hughes.  the Twins still end up with too many flyers on pitchers without stuff  but there has been an organization shift and stuff is actually considered in the draft, trades and FA now.  It's progress.

TOMMY MILONE, SERVICE TIME AND FREE AGENT STATUS

Found this post by Berardino to be interesting:

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/08/13/twinsights-tommy-milone-concerned-possible-service-time-manipulation/

Looks like Milone could get a nice raise for next year.  But his potential free agency was apparently delayed by his time in Rochester.

TOMMY MILONE, SERVICE TIME AND FREE AGENT STATUS

 

Found this post by Berardino to be interesting:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/08/13/twinsights-tommy-milone-concerned-possible-service-time-manipulation/

 

Looks like Milone could get a nice raise for next year.  But his potential free agency was apparently delayed by his time in Rochester.

So the front office is capable of doing math.

There is and it was a wonderful breath of fresh air.  But let's not pretend Ryan's dabbling in FA has ever made much sense.  Even under restrictive payrolls he nickel'd and dime'd rather than sought true upgrades.  (Just look at some of the wasted millions between 2005-2008 that, if combined, might have actually added someone who could play baseball effectively)

 

So fair or not, Ryan has a reputation he has to buck to make people believe he's changed his stripes.

after the 2004 season they signed 2 players  Juan Casro for 2 years, 1 million a year.

I don't think anyone would say the Redman was a bad signing or a waste of money

2005 Rondel White for 2 years 2.5 million.

2006 Ortiz and Cirillo. Spent 4.6 mil  Got Matt Marci in return.

3 year period. 11 million. Whata could have Ryan gotten with better budgeting over the three years for about 3.5 million per year?

Let's consider the irony.

 

Almost the entire board complains that the Twins are playing veterans during a rebuild and expects every 30+ player to be traded but some also complain that the Twins aren't making big splashes into FA every season.

 

The fact is that the Twins have only had a few seasons to be able to spend money in FA since Target Field opened.  For the most part they have sucked during that time and they still aren't the Yankees or Red Sox.  They won't be able to spend their way out of the cellar. 

The stadium was approved in 2006 and all projections were that revenues would substantially increase.  The Twins should have been investing in players.  It's very much like a business spending borrowed money because they are planning on a big increase in sales--except there is less risk for the Twins.  They were penny wise and pound foolish.  This probably wasn't Ryan's decision--but it falls on the entire organization.  The players I'm referencing?--the futures--internationals, the above slot payments to attract those not drafted as high as hoped (by the player) but still very enticing to a ballclub.  True, most will fail (many "new products" fail too, but companies must try anyway), but that's part of the game.  Much of the mess of the past few years falls on management because of their failure to "invest" in future talent while they were paying existing talent (ever increasing salaries) to have a winning team.

after the 2004 season they signed 2 players  Juan Casro for 2 years, 1 million a year.

I don't think anyone would say the Redman was a bad signing or a waste of money

2005 Rondel White for 2 years 2.5 million.

2006 Ortiz and Cirillo. Spent 4.6 mil  Got Matt Marci in return.

3 year period. 11 million. Whata could have Ryan gotten with better budgeting over the three years for about 3.5 million per year?

There are other names that represent predictably low return on investment over that span.  Some were free agents, some were home-grown players unwisely retained, and some were players acquired in trade.  Tony Batista, Sidney Ponson, Bret Boone, Joe Mays, Phil Nevin, Jose Offerman, Ruben Sierra...

None of them were back-breakers by themselves, with the possible exception of Mays and his seven million dollar stink bomb, but a half million here, a million there, three mill for Ortiz, and pretty soon we're talking about some real money, especially when adjusted for nearly a decade of league salary inflation.

Every GM whiffs sometimes, and in fairness to Ryan, he was gambling on risky veterans to fill holes around a young core with a fixed payroll/team control/contention window. Some of it took place before the stadium deal promised higher future revenue and (sort of) corresponding payroll increase, creating both future payroll uncertainty and a need to generate good PR with winning seasons and a public perception of a franchise willing to spend.

That being said... well, looking back at some of the players TR acquired or retained in that period and the tiny return on investment they provided makes me do the Joe Nathan lip flap and wonder what might have been.

Ryan is still a good GM and deserves credit for some excellent moves like the AJ and Shannon Stewart trades, the Hughes signing, and several under-the-radar sell-offs like the ones he made this season.

But to me, at least, his ideal role (and Gardenhire's) with the Twins would not be as a manager in the future, but as a C-cubed (consultant/consigliere/centurion) adviser not ultimately controlling the future of the franchise.

If the alternative is Rob Antony, however, some of my redundant and/or low-priority organs might be made available to Mr. Ryan if his reason for stepping down has to do with personal health.

Counter-factuals like this really aren't a valid argument.  I know it sounds like it is to say "yeah, but what could've been better" but it eliminates the trade market among other things for how resources could be allocated.

 

The issue is the approach, not necessarily the results.  Now results like Ramon Ortiz, White, Cirillo, Ponson, etc. tend to verify my problem with the approach, but that's not the issue.  The truth is in 2007 there was 9M dollars worth of dead weight on a team with a 70 million-ish payroll.  That's pretty significant and something we saw consistently through our competitive years from Ryan.  

My point really was there wasn't that much money spent in free agency that lumping it all togetherr was going to get you some really good player. . Your point appeared to be they should have spent it all on one player.  If it is the process of how they add players,, ok. When you have to add players there are a few different ways. Free agency is one.   Were the contract signed  indicative of recent play by the players? Cirillo was around a 1.5 war player the previous 2 years. Rondel White the same. The pricetag was to what they performed as. The expectation was that was the kind of player you were signing. That is not unreasonable.

Ramon Ortiz has tantalized GMs for 10 years. Ryan is but one of many. At least he got a prospect. I thought Ponson was a minor league invite. Regardless, he did not stay long. And yes, they could have had a better evaluation process.

How else should have they added talent that year.

Hindsight to say you should have signed Hunter at 5/75. Easy to say if they were not going to sign him they should have traded him.  Leading up to the 2007 season they had 12 prospects that graded B or higher. That would have been so smart to trade the right 10.

I could be so smart and say they should have been trading Mauer and Morneau at their peak value that year . Would have brought in a ton of talent. How many years of contact between the 2 ended up or will end up as "dead wood" for what they were or will be paid.

Looking back it is easy to say the process was wrong.

There are other names that represent predictably low return on investment over that span.  Some were free agents, some were home-grown players unwisely retained, and some were players acquired in trade.  Tony Batista, Sidney Ponson, Bret Boone, Joe Mays, Phil Nevin, Jose Offerman, Ruben Sierra...

 

None of them were back-breakers by themselves, with the possible exception of Mays and his seven million dollar stink bomb, but a half million here, a million there, three mill for Ortiz, and pretty soon we're talking about some real money, especially when adjusted for nearly a decade of league salary inflation.

 

Every GM whiffs sometimes, and in fairness to Ryan, he was gambling on risky veterans to fill holes around a young core with a fixed payroll/team control/contention window. Some of it took place before the stadium deal promised higher future revenue and (sort of) corresponding payroll increase, creating both future payroll uncertainty and a need to generate good PR with winning seasons and a public perception of a franchise willing to spend.

 

That being said... well, looking back at some of the players TR acquired or retained in that period and the tiny return on investment they provided makes me do the Joe Nathan lip flap and wonder what might have been.

 

Ryan is still a good GM and deserves credit for some excellent moves like the AJ and Shannon Stewart trades, the Hughes signing, and several under-the-radar sell-offs like the ones he made this season.

 

But to me, at least, his ideal role (and Gardenhire's) with the Twins would not be as a manager in the future, but as a C-cubed (consultant/consigliere/centurion) adviser not ultimately controlling the future of the franchise.

 

If the alternative is Rob Antony, however, some of my redundant and/or low-priority organs might be made available to Mr. Ryan if his reason for stepping down has to do with personal health.

They did not learn after Joe Mays not to give a pitcher that relies on pinpoint control al large contract. Generally are not the same after injury. Periipheral numbers also were not kind to Joe

As the organization is now fully in the process of actively moving to the next phase of the rebuild, with the health of the GM in some doubt, the question of succession looms as large as any with the franchise. 

 

The cancer was treated. There are follow up visits, but there should be no health concerns. Recccurent cancer of his type is about 5%

So... is there a deadline for announcing what the official return was for Correia? Did we get Joc Peterson and Kershaw or not?