Twins Rotation Appears Set as Mick Abel Beats Out Zebby Matthews

I am always pleased when a player forces his way onto the team and Zebby has disappointed me.  MY only other regret is not having Emma on the opening day roster.  

I think the pitching is looking promising and if Ober struggles I hope there is a quick hook and a call up to replace him. 

4 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

In today's MLB what does it mean to "eat innings"?   

150 IP and under 4.5 ERA?

175 IP and under 4.75ERA?

200 IP and under 5 ERA?

Nm

Abel was the right choice. I'm disappointed he's the right choice in so much as I really wanted Matthews to take a step forward and CLAIM that job as his. I still believe there is a viable, quality ML arm in Matthews. But SOMETHING is still missing. I think the control is there, but I think he's still missing the COMMAND part of pitching. That is, the ability to "just miss" the zone enough for whiffs and weak contact. If he can get that part figured out, I could see us as a group suddenly saying: "What's gotten in to Matthews all of a sudden?" in a pleasantly surprised and pleased way.

I suppose he's still a viable oen convert where he might just dominate. But I'm still holding out hope for him to be a rotation fixture.

This doesn't mean I'm not excited to see what Abel can do. IIRC he was a top 100 prospect...for what that's worth...for 2 or 3 years, but slipped out of those rankings prior to the Twins acquiring him. The STUFF and potential are real. But I don't expect an All Star caliber performance his 1st year.

Bradley is interesting. Again, great STUFF. But he never put it all together while in Tampa. He's still young and his arm has some real electricity. No insult to the kid, but I'm still blown away that while in Tampa he didn't really do the "bookwork" on opposing hitters and just trusted his catcher. As I understand it, he's started to embrace the pre-game work the Twins are so diligent about. This would seem to indicate a next level of mental "maturity" as a professional pitcher. NOT to say he was immature as a person, simply that he's growing as a professional. Considering his repertoire, his still young age, adopting a new "homework" approach, and the Twins having a good history of tweaking deliveries and grips, he might just be about ready to raise his game another notch. Again, not expecting All Star results immediately, but considering past experience, it might not be out of the realm of possibility. 

I'm a fan of SWR not because he blows people away, but because I'm somewhat amazed at how well he's done considering how poorly he's been handled in his early career. The Mets traded him to the Jays when he was 20yo, I believe. The Jays put him at AA as a 20yo, but he had a badly disjointed season being selected to the Olympic team that he never even pitched for. The Twins were pretty much: "OK, maybe you've been rished and missed a lot of time, but you've already been at AA, so I guess we'll keep you there".

Not going to blame the Twins for "damage done", but maybe they should have sent him down initially for lost development time. But he looked pretty good as a 21yo in AA in 2022, and finished the season at AAA looking pretty solid. 

So he began 2023 at AAA as a 22yo and looked average at best. This where the whole lost velocity and change of arm angle happened to get him ready for 2024. And while he was nursed a bit early on, he really saved the Twins BUTT with solid performances before running out of gas late.

Fast forward to 2025, he really disappointed me with his early season. I really expected another jump in his development. But after a demotion, he came up and pitched as well, or better than, he ever had before. His splitter over the last couple of months was excellent, and he looked as if he had truly raised his game to another level. And he's STILL only 25yo and learning the game. He's absolutely behind Bradley and Abel in pure STUFF, but if he can keep that splitter working, he has the ability to be really solid, if not downright good.

I'm really worried about Ober, as most of us are. I just can't believe a 30yo has suddenly lost 3MPH off his fastball. And yet, he says he feels great, with no physical impairment. So MAYBE it's mechanical and we'll see a ramp up. We can hope for that. Otherwise, he needs to adjust the velocity of his other offerings and take them down a notch to keep a suitable speed variance. In other words, he needs to be more "crafty" as a pitcher. He's got the intelligence to do so. But his days as a really good #3 who often throws like a #2 may be behind him. He might honestly be the Twins #5 starter without an uptick in velocity. And that really stinks!

But while I'm not expecting Bradley and Abel to make All Star kind of jumps in 2026, BOTH have the ability to "take over" the #2 and #3 spots pretty quickly. And that's what we should be hoping for, and why the Twins traded for them.