Twins Payroll Primer and Key Decisions

I'm not remembering past offseasons well enough. Who, if any, have the Twins chosen to non-tender since Falvey and Lavine? Have there been many borderline cases in doing so? That may give a clue as to their orientation on a Rosario. 

We can't look at next year based on past history. Never in the past history of the league has every team lost $100M or more. Teams would be cutting payroll, especially small and mid-market teams even if they expected a return to normal next year. As Chief points out, there is still great uncertainty about attendance next year.

If, and it's a big IF, the teams and players reached a reasonable agreement that adjusts player salary based on attendance, we could play 162 games. Players would make between two-thirds and full salary based on attendance. However, it's hard to believe the players will be willing to adjust their salary based on the hard line they took last year after both sides agreed the payout would have to be adjusted if fans were not present.

Let's hope they have they start working on an agreement based on attendance as soon as the WS is over. That would be in the best interest of a lot of players, teams and the fans because I would expect the teams to severely roll back spending if an agreement to adjust salary based on attendance related to Covid is not reached.

I agree with the poster above on Baldelli’s pitching staff management. If he’s going to continue to inexplicably pull effective starting pitchers after 75 pitches, you need a better bullpen. Rogers has been awful for over a year now. Romo needs to go unless he’ll accept a low leverage role. May will likely be gone. You need someone other than Duffey that you can count on to get big outs.

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We hired not 1, but 2, baseball “geniuses” for the front office. Why are they considered that, exactly? Where’s the difference vs. Terry Ryan? They’re just starting to sound like a magic 8-ball of trendy analytical/corporate cliches at this point. Slightly different path. Exact same result.

It's not inexplicable: between the goofy pandemic season where they didn't really get a proper spring training, the stats on pitchers facing guys a third time, the fact that you have guys like Rich Hill on the staff who is a 4-5 inning pitcher now...it really wasn't all that inexplicable. And the bullpen wasn't bad: Duffey, Clippard, Wisler, and even Thielbar were great. May, Romo, & Rogers were good overall...it's just that Rogers was weirdly hittable and he and Romo had some bad late shots. Literally, the only guy who was actually bad was Littell and he only got 6 innings (and after his previous season you had to give him a little rope to see if he could repeat it, right?) The pitching wasn't a problem this year, at all. They had the 4th best ERA+ in baseball this year. They had the 4th best WHIP. If you don't like the advanced stats, they had the 4th best ERA too. The pitching was really effective all season and they used a similar strategy in the playoffs. And the failure in the playoffs was still more about offense.

They considered geniuses because Falvey has a track record of developing pitching, and since coming to MN they've made a lot of very smart bets and quality moves. They had a really effective off-season last year, making a lot of smart plays:

1. Traded for Maeda. Yes, they gave up a quality arm, but they traded a bullpen guy for a starter who is going to likely finish 2nd in the AL Cy. That's a great move.

2. Signed Donaldson, which improved the team defense and added a star quality player when they couldn't sign the starting pitcher they wanted. That's a great pivot, even if Donaldson had injuries during this sprint of a year. I'm still high on the move

3. Didn't give Bumgarner a desperation extra year to try and grab a starter. No panic, just pivot to a good plan B

4. Signed Wisler, who was brilliant and cost them nothing.

5. Made sure the team had depth, both in starting pitching and on the field. (They always had options to go to; the only desperation play was when they took a flyer on Vargas, and that was because Nick Gordon had COVID. Are we really going to fault them for not setting up a 4th string 2B?)

Not everything worked out, but mostly on offense, and offense was down all over the place. Hitters had more trouble than anyone else in pandemic world.

Letting Rosario and Romo go is the right move as the Twins have players who can fill in those roles.

I'd be fine with the Twins bringing back Cruz on a one year deal or a two year deal if the second one is based on plate appearances. If he wants two full years then I think the Twins have to move on.

If it's true Bauer wants to bet on himself by signing 1 year deals going forward then why not go after him? A starting rotation of Bauer, Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and whoever is as good of a starting rotation as the Twins have ever had.

The Twins need to find a more consistent bench than what they had this season and it would be nice if whoever they go after has more speed. The Twins are currently one of the slowest teams in the MLB. It be nice to bring someone off the bench late in a game that could steal a base. Does Blankenhorn and Gordon fill those roles?

1. Eddie is out, no way will they tender him.  My guess he will be a late signing in spring training by someone.  He is basically replacement level player at this point of career and will not improve.  He will not be worth his pay and it will be time to give younger guys a look.  Only way they keep him is at a very discounted contract.

2. I think both mentioned are out.  They will try possible inside organization or bring someone in.  You can find plenty of guys out there that can do similar to what they did recently.  

3. I doubt they go after any of the FA mentioned, but if they do I think it may be Bauer because he will not be seeking long term deal, unless he changed his stance on the 1 year at a time approach he has talked about in past.  With COVID he may change his mind and seek some long term commitment, but if he stays true to his word he will want just a 1 year deal, so Twins will have little to risk long term.  

4. Cruz, if the price is right I bring him back.  From everything reported he is a great guy to have around.  The only caveat is if you are willing to cut him should he not be producing and hits the age cliff.  No marching him out there should that happen because we are paying him too much.  Not saying it will, but his last month was not good, I think there could be many reason for that, but he hit 2 rockets for doubles in the post-season, only guy to drive in runs.  We have possible replacements, but DH is not that easy, many guys have tried to do it and failed compared to when they were in field.  Some can do it well though.

5. Pen I am not worried right now.  The main question is romo back.  I think they will bring him back, but rest will shake out.  May is gone I think, unless he wants back on 1 year low money deal.  Maybe that is all he can expect this off-season.

Overall, the biggest questions will be how future projection of COVID affects teams willingness to spend.  Will teams stay away from multi-year deals?  How much stock will this year be used in deciding worth?  Will off-season look the same as last off-season, meaning same winter meetings and signings?  Will players, and their agents, expect this to be just a blip and going back to next year and beyond be back to business as usual?  So many questions. 

 

If it's true Bauer wants to bet on himself by signing 1 year deals going forward then why not go after him? A starting rotation of Bauer, Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and whoever is as good of a starting rotation as the Twins have ever had.

 

Because he's also a giant ass and could be a major clubhouse cancer?

Because you don't know which Trevor Bauer you're going to get?

If you get the 2018 version, wonderful. If you get the 2017 version, not so wonderful. If you get the 2019 version, you're betting you get the CLE version (very good) and hoping you don't get the CIN version (dreadful). Do you want to bet $30M that the small sample size of 2020, when hitting was down all over the place if reflective of who he is as a pitcher at age 30?

"But what about Maeda?" you might ask. "Aren't you betting on the same thing?" Answer: no, not really. I don't expect him to be as dominant as he was in pandemic season, because I expect hitting to be back up next year. But I do think he'll be good, and we're not paying him ludicrous money no matter how well he pitches (with incentives, he eventually tops out at like $13M) so the risk is less.

Sure, 1 year deal are always relatively low-risk...but dude also has some baggage.

If it's true Bauer wants to bet on himself by signing 1 year deals going forward then why not go after him? 

Two reasons:

Reason 1:

Because he's also a giant ass and could be a major clubhouse cancer

Reason 2:

$$$

Thanks. That’s the gist of what was coming to mind. I think of Cron and Schoop as being distinctly different. They were both guys brought in from the outside on under-valued one-year make-good deals to an 87-loss team without clear alternatives. In Schoop’s case, he ended the season without a job. In Cron’s case, he’s one of the easiest things to replace, and I think their preference was to find a 3B alternative to be able to move Sano to first.

 

By contrast, Rosario is someone who has been part of the building process and has been quite consistent in his maddening inconsistency, with an OPS+ of 115 to 119 in three of his last four years, plus a 107 in the year he was hampered by injury. To me, it feels like their orientation will be to keep him.

 

That said, I think MLR’s point is well-taken. You can talk about whether to “bring back” guys like Cruz, Odo and Gonzalez, but the reality is that they are free agents and they have no actual control. Rosario is really one of the few places where the team can make a significant difference in their returning payroll. This is definitely a different year in terms of revenue projection.

 

Yet, this team showed that when they think they are ready, they will spend money (see, Donaldson and a cast of several others). The White Sox overperformed, the Twins underperformed, and the Twins still beat them. They see themselves as competitive and more. Thus, my hunch is that they’ll keep him. A prospect is a suspect until they have proven it. Rooker has looked good in a small sample size and Kiriloff has four at bats, but neither played a minor league season this year, so it’s hard to know how they have really developed. This organization a) doesn’t like to give starting jobs to rookies out of spring training; and likes depth. With Buxton’s injury challenges, I see them going into the season with Rosario/Buxton/Kepler as Plan A, with the hope that Rooker or Kirilloff will be ready when someone goes down or if they force their way into a call up.

I kind of agree that if the Twins keep Rosario it'll be just his last year of arb and then he is gone next year. Cruz is not a guarantee to be back, it would be nice, but no guarantee. Now if the Twins were to use their young guys like Rooker, Kirlloff as bench guys with no Cruz then the twins would be able to rotate Rosario and the young guys through the DH slot. Rosario was used as a DH a few times this year also, so maybe that is what they are planning. Then the young kids get eased into some playing time and used extensively when the injuries hit and then rolled back to eased into the lineup when healthy again. Rather than banking the season on likely not 1 but using 2 or maybe 3 young guys in the lineup. That would be a little scary. I think May is gone. He is a power reliever and if he drops a couple MPH on his Fastball he will be toast. Probably better off trying to develop one of the younger guys like Colina etc.... May had his bad moments already, good overall, but his secondary pitches haven't seemed to be all that great. So he is fastball dependant which scares me over 162 games.

Watching the postseason only serves to confirm my opinion.

The Twins biggest need is an upgrade to the bullpen. At least a half dozen power arms. No more relying on the Sergio Romos or Caleb Thielbars or Mat Wislers of the world to beat playoff offenses for 4 innings per night.

Not that I don't agree but the real problem was scoring 1 run per game.  I think their biggest need next year is better plate discipline. Not just in terms of swinging outside the zone but laying off tough pitches when they are ahead in the count. It appeared to me opposing pitchers knew our guys would be aggressive when ahead in the count. They threw tough breaking balls or just did not give up much of the plate even when ahead. Our guys fouled off the pitches to even the count or put the ball in play with weak contact. At least that's what it seemed like to me. I don't have the stats to back it up.