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    Twins 2, Yankees 5: You Already Know

    Goliath puts up a hell of a fight, it turns out.

    Matt Braun
    Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Mike Paredes: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
    Home Runs: Kody Clemens (15)
    Bottom 3 WPA: Brooks Lee (-.150), Mike Paredes (-.140), Eric Orze (-.130)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    FanGraphs-GameGraphs-MIN-NYY-2026-07-03.png

    249 years and 364 days ago, the Continental Congress - a group of men, some famous, some unfamiliar - signed in agreement with the 33-year-old Thomas Jefferson’s writing that men are created equal, and should be bound by the unalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. In dissolving from British rule, they invited a fight. Indeed, a war waged brutally and bloody, nearly sapped the fledgling nation of the power and inertia of its boisterous political declarations. They won, and the spirit of the Revolution lives in this year, and every year since that great document was put forth.

    Though the precise meaning of the words of the men who enlightened and debated sparks disagreements to this day, their spirit remains firmly entrenched. A war was fought over these beliefs. Amendments to their words have passed. Yet, through it all, as the country faced challenges, obstacles, and obstructions, the calcified thoughts of our forefathers hover over every endeavor. Their beliefs, like a blanket all-encompassing and warming, remind us of what America was meant to be and what it could become with proper nurturing.

    So, baseball. The most American of inventions, next to apple pie and jazz. 

    The Twins entered Yankee Stadium on Friday with strange momentum: they won four of their previous five series, yet that one loss was a drumming at the hands of the far superior Dodgers. Where does that leave our Minnesota heroes? Good enough to best the league’s average offerings, but a clear step below the best of the best? How brutal. A cursed lifestyle. We must see better before we can declare this team worthy of the playoff presents gifted to the worthy squads.

    And with Mike Paredes set to start against Gerrit Cole , fortune did not favor the Twins, at least in this game. The veteran Cole - armed with lethal stuff and pinpoint control - against the unheralded 25-year-old. The advantage was clear from the beginning.

    Yet the Twins found the first lead. Cole diced up Trevor Larnach to start the game and elicited a groundout from Brooks Lee to summon Kody Clemens to the plate with two out and no one on. He got ahead 1-2 before hanging a curveball a touch too high, allowing the hot-swinging lefty to blast the pitch 403 feet out to left-center.

    Good stuff. Excellent hitting. Can anyone believe Clemens was a random waiver claim over a year ago?

    Short-lived is the grace and wonder of the underdog. Minnesota may have struck first, but this is the Yankees—the boogieman of nightmares for all across the 32nd state. They can, and will, return the favor with prejudice. And so they did, with Trent Grisham smoothly sailing a solo homer into the right-field bombast. Tie game. 

    Zeroes were traded until rain disrupted the switch between the top and bottom of the third inning. The precipitation continued to affect the game even after play was re-declared. 

    Play again they did, though, and the Yankees quickly put a man on base in front of Ben Rice, who jumped all over a lethargic Paredes fastball for a two-run homer. The Twins answered with a run off a professional Victor Caratini single that split the infield and safely beckoned a dashing Clemens home.

    The fifth and sixth passed silently as Kody Funderburk held the Bombers bombless. The seventh was not as quiet. Eric Orze proved eminently hittable, as the Yankees rallied for two off the reliever, doubling, singling, stealing second, sacrifice bunting, and finally sacrifice-flying to cap their two-run add-on. 

    Action stalled. A bases-loaded frame for the Twins in the eighth churned nothing. The ninth didn't even bother with the hope and potential for runs. So it goes. 

    Notes:

    • For tomorrow's game, the Yankees had intended to start Carlos Rodon, but he was placed on the IL today with heavy inflammation in his elbow. 
    • Byron Buxton missed his fourth straight game for the Twins due to a right hip impingement. 

    Post-Game Interview:

     

    What’s Next?
    The Twins and Yankees meet on the fourth for a 12:35 PM matinee as Zebby Matthews is set to pitch against the temperamental and mercurial TBD.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      MON TUE WED THUR FRI P
    Orze 0 23 0 0 28 51
    Adams 35 0 0 0 0 35
    Raya 0 25 0 0 0 25
    Gómez 7 0 18 0 0 25
    Laweryson 0 0 23 0 0 23
    Funderburk 0 0 0 0 21 21
    Morris 0 0 17 0 0 17
    Rogers 0 0 15 0 0 15

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    Featured Comments

    8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Good thing they haven't put Buxton on the IL yet! Every year they do this to themselves. 

    Seems like they are trying to keep him healthy so he can start in the allstar game which means crap to our team , every year he's banged up around the allstar game  , he played a few years ago in allstar game  when he shouldn't and immediately put on the IL list  , think it was his knee that was the injury  ...

    As far as the game  , the twins never had a chance and the Yankees needed to pounce on the twins to end their 7 game losing streak  ..,

    I don’t think Gray is the choice over Kreidler at short. Kreidler did start a couple games (with Gray sitting) against right handers before Buxton went to the bench and I am confident Shelton would start Kreidler st short again if there was a different option in center. This is all complicated by the Buxton injury and the lack of confidence Shelton has in either Repko or Martin to fill in as the center fielder.

    The Twins chose Gray over Kreidler in the spring because he was a lefty alternative to back up two RH hitters and a switch hitter and Kreidler’s hitting profile was among the worst in MLB. Kreidler has shown enough with the bat and glove to play before Gray at least 75% of the time, but he’s “neded” in center field. Until Buxton or an outfielder currently in St. Paul is ready to play for the Twins. My guess is Roden for Repko and when Jeffers is activated he takes Gray’s spot, although they might try to DFA Jackson. 

    9 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    Seems like they are trying to keep him healthy so he can start in the allstar game which means crap to our team , every year he's banged up around the allstar game  , he played a few years ago in allstar game  when he shouldn't and immediately put on the IL list  , think it was his knee that was the injury  ...

    As far as the game  , the twins never had a chance and the Yankees needed to pounce on the twins to end their 7 game losing streak  ..,

    That was the conspiracy theory I floated in the in-game thread last night on why Buxton was not on the IL.  I thought of this theory after listening to the Skor North Twins Show pregame podcast.  When Shelton was asked about Buxton's availability, his response was that he has no updates at this time.  The starting lineups for the ASG are expected to be announced tonight before the FOX Saturday game and Buxton is expected to be on the list.  He last played on Sunday.  It's possible that they could announce an IL stint for this Monday (they're not flying someone to NY for one game), retroactive to June 29th, and he could still come off the IL by Friday in time for the ASG.

    Another mention on that podcast was that Fedko is essentially a Billy Hamilton type of player on the roster.  Only coming in for pinch-running and defensive purposes.  Our roster currently cannot afford any spot to be reduced to that type of role, even the 13th man on the bench.  We end up having strange lineups or players like Gray still on the roster.  

    What I don’t like is that I suspect an IL decision for Buxton is influenced by him playing in the All-Star game. Buck has been to two and started once (due to a starter’s injury), but he will likely be voted in this time and get a starting spot. He hasn’t been there often enough to blow if off. There really isn’t a qualified All-Star other than Buxton. Worse pitchers than Bradley or Ryan have been All-Stars, but their numbers aren’t as good as a host of other pitchers. 

    They go to Yankee stadium and put their choke collars on. The only player who showed up was Clemens the rest were lost. There was one miracle in the game Funderburk pitched 2 innings without walking anyone. As soon as Orze came in I knew the game was over,up to that point there was a chance. Watching Gray's one at bat where he struck out on 3 pitches how is it he is still on this roster. If they want a chance at WC spot changes have to be made sooner not later and he is one of them.

    26 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

    I don’t think Gray is the choice over Kreidler at short. Kreidler did start a couple games (with Gray sitting) against right handers before Buxton went to the bench and I am confident Shelton would start Kreidler st short again if there was a different option in center. This is all complicated by the Buxton injury and the lack of confidence Shelton has in either Repko or Martin to fill in as the center fielder.

    The Twins chose Gray over Kreidler in the spring because he was a lefty alternative to back up two RH hitters and a switch hitter and Kreidler’s hitting profile was among the worst in MLB. Kreidler has shown enough with the bat and glove to play before Gray at least 75% of the time, but he’s “neded” in center field. Until Buxton or an outfielder currently in St. Paul is ready to play for the Twins. My guess is Roden for Repko and when Jeffers is activated he takes Gray’s spot, although they might try to DFA Jackson. 

    I don't think we will know who the preferred shortstop is until Buxton comes back.  Kreidler started a string of games and then sat for two.  This is an organizational decision to say he is needed in CF, there are other options within the organization.  If they don't trust Fedko he shouldn't be on the roster.  Why not swap him with Roden.  Supposedly when they traded for him, one reason was he could cover CF at least as a fill in if needed.  So to say Kreidler is needed in CF is letting this organization off the hook.  And it has made the defense weaker overall especially up the middle.  Kriedler is average defensively in CF, numerous shallow fly balls have been misplayed and he is the quarterback out there who should be cleaning that up.  His routes are becoming an adventure and that is going to cost him at some point especially in the spacious outfield of Yankee stadium.

    Rehashing the Twins ineptitude vs the Yanks is getting old. (admittedly it's epic)

    Zebby Matthews has been pitching really well of late, AND he goes deep into games. Very significant, for reasons that need not be stated. My $$$'s on the Twinkies this aft.

    As a Canadian , I think it's more likely than Canada beating Morocco on the pitch.

     

    I dug into the excuse on Kreidler at CF and reviewed his baseball reference page for various splits.  When you account for Kreidler's splits, granted in SSS, keeping Gray on the roster makes even less sense, especially as a LHB excuse.

    image.png.55b4b19d57c289592b2666ffd2cfa679.png

    In 2026, Kreidler is currently better against RHP vs LHP.  I did look at his career platoon splits to make sure this isn't an error.  Even his career platoon splits support this argument, although not to the extreme as in 2026 (101 vs RHP, 97 vs LHP).

    When you analyze Kreidler by position, it makes even less sense why he is in CF.  Again, this is very SSS, but his career OPS splits also flesh out these trends (OPS of 134 at SS vs OPS of 56 at CF).

    image.png.d198e5913baba929a9a4f6b4c84eec26.png

    Just to be clear, this is nothing against Kreidler.  He has earned his current playing time and should be on the roster starting at SS until Culpepper is called up at the minimum.  There is no reason, even by metrics, for Gray to be on the roster as he should be replaced by Roden if they really want a LHB on the roster who can also cover CF.  This would also leave Clemens at second, which I believe (although I haven't looked it up) is his best defensive position as well.

     

    1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

    What I don’t like is that I suspect an IL decision for Buxton is influenced by him playing in the All-Star game. Buck has been to two and started once (due to a starter’s injury), but he will likely be voted in this time and get a starting spot. He hasn’t been there often enough to blow if off. There really isn’t a qualified All-Star other than Buxton. Worse pitchers than Bradley or Ryan have been All-Stars, but their numbers aren’t as good as a host of other pitchers. 

    Peak TC.  Manage their best player's playing time/injury to make sure he is available for the meaningless ASG. 

    Does it help TC win games that count?  No.  Does it make it harder to win games that count.  Yes.  Will Pohlad continue to make mouth noises about TC trying to win?  Yes.

    48 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

    I dug into the excuse on Kreidler at CF and reviewed his baseball reference page for various splits.  When you account for Kreidler's splits, granted in SSS, keeping Gray on the roster makes even less sense, especially as a LHB excuse.

    image.png.55b4b19d57c289592b2666ffd2cfa679.png

    In 2026, Kreidler is currently better against RHP vs LHP.  I did look at his career platoon splits to make sure this isn't an error.  Even his career platoon splits support this argument, although not to the extreme as in 2026 (101 vs RHP, 97 vs LHP).

    When you analyze Kreidler by position, it makes even less sense why he is in CF.  Again, this is very SSS, but his career OPS splits also flesh out these trends (OPS of 134 at SS vs OPS of 56 at CF).

    image.png.d198e5913baba929a9a4f6b4c84eec26.png

    Just to be clear, this is nothing against Kreidler.  He has earned his current playing time and should be on the roster starting at SS until Culpepper is called up at the minimum.  There is no reason, even by metrics, for Gray to be on the roster as he should be replaced by Roden if they really want a LHB on the roster who can also cover CF.  This would also leave Clemens at second, which I believe (although I haven't looked it up) is his best defensive position as well.

     

    Today's lineup is a data point in support of Kreidler over Gray at shortstop no matter the handedness of the opposing pitcher. Tristan Gray needs to hit to maintain his job as a three-position utility infielder and he hasn't done that. He shouldn't be used as shortstop as much as third and second base and his role is now considerably narrower because the now preferred regulars at second a third don't give Gray a platoon advantage. I don't see Gray staying on the Twins' active roster much longer.

    Clemens best defensive position is first base, both this year and in his career. There have been a couple of hiccups, but Lewis has looked very good at first, so leaving Clemens at second makes sense. 




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