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    Nick Nelson

    The Royals are at it again.

    After a somewhat slow start, the defending champs have come on strong, charging to the top of the division with 10 wins in their last 13 games, including five against the White Sox club they just blasted past. The Royals can do no wrong.

    Meanwhile, the Twins remain mired in last place and can do no right. Oh, how the tides have turned.

    Image courtesy of John Rieger. USA Today

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    Ten years ago, in 2006, the Twins were at the apex of a successful run in the AL Central. They won 96 games with an upstart squad that featured the American League's MVP, batting champ and Cy Young. They would have had the Rookie of the Year, too, if Francisco Liriano didn't tear his UCL.

    Terry Ryan had guided the franchise to its healthiest point in more than a decade and the future looked awfully bright.

    Things weren't so rosy for the Royals. They were enduring a third straight 100-loss season and were amidst a stretch of 17 finishes below .500 in 18 years.

    That June, Dayton Moore took over as Kansas City's general manager.

    It's been a long and slow road, but under Moore's administration, the team has transformed from baseball's laughing stock to its shining pinnacle. To watch the Royals now, the idea that they were a bungling catastrophe in the not-so-distant past seems preposterous.

    The last couple of weeks have been perfectly emblematic of how enchanted this ballclub has become. Two Sundays ago, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas collided in the outfield while chasing a fly ball behind third base. The results were calamitous: Gordon had broken his wrist and Moustakas had torn his ACL. In a split-second, Royals had lost two key staples in the lineup – one for at least a month and one for the year.

    What has happened since that fateful incident? Oh, the Royals have just won eight of 10, scoring 68 runs in the process. They're crushing the ball all over the field, leaving opponents muttering. The bullpen is impenetrable as usual. The rotation has been no one's idea of stable, but it doesn't even matter. Like I said, the Royals can do no wrong.

    On the very opposite end of the spectrum, we have the Twins. The same day Byron Buxton injected a mild spark of excitement into this nightmarish campaign by returning after a blistering stint at Triple-A, Miguel Sano went down with a hamstring injury, almost on cue. One day later, the Athletics completed a sweep of the Twins in Oakland, Minnesota's eighth in a season that is just two months old (that isn't counting the shortened two-gamer against the Baltimore in early May). In 2014, when they lost 92 games, the Twins were swept seven times total.

    Sano had been the best producer in a bad lineup, save for maybe Joe Mauer. Ideally, others would step up in the slugger's absence over the next few weeks, but then, no one has really stepped up on this entire roster over the first third of the season.

    And that's where the Twins now stand. If the 2016 season continues in the direction it's headed, it will not only be the organization's fifth 90-loss effort in six years, it will be a 110-loss debacle that easily surpasses any precedent in franchise history.

    The game of baseball – with its meticulous nature, its marathon seasons, its rules for competitive balance – will always be one of ebbs and flows. Peaks and valleys are to be expected. But the paths that the Twins and Royals have followed represent some of the most extreme examples you will come across.

    Is there a lesson to be learned from all of this? I don't know. Hopefully it doesn't take the Twins as long to dig themselves out of the dregs as it did the Royals. History doesn't dictate the future so we needn't immerse ourselves in parallels between the current swoon here and the one that lingered for so long in KC, even if those parallels are sometimes conspicuous.

    It's also worth noting that it took Dayton Moore the better part of 10 years to turn the Royals from a cellar-dweller to an unstoppable force. And Terry Ryan is the same man who put the Twins in that enviable position they were at when Moore took over.

    When he was seven years into his stagnating rebuild, few would have said that Moore was the man for the job. Now, no one would suggest otherwise. That's not so much a defense of TR, but a call for perspective. This situation is a lot bigger than the GM, no matter how much you want to simplify it.

    That's why I personally believe that the first step to getting this Twins franchise back on track is a rethinking of the front office structure rather than reactive firings to appease an angry fan base.

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    It cost them winning the WS, isn't that the goal? Or, is coasting to 85 wins and no playoff victories the goal?

    Exactly why the Twins should've gone for it last year and made a bigger splash around the deadline than just adding Jepsen. You never know what the next year will bring and nothing is guaranteed.

    I have to interject the "chemistry" word into the discussion.  When two productive starters (Gordon and Moustakis) go down and then the All-Star catcher Perez follows, it must be chemistry that makes Drew Butera a .306 hitter.  He hasn't hit his weight in 10 ML seasons, averaging .190 and weighing 200.  This team believes they can win every game.  They won the WS by coming from behind and it creates a sense of fear in their opponents.  

    it must be chemistry that makes Drew Butera a .306 hitter. 

    In 40 plate appearances this season.

     

    Instead of calling it Small Sample Size, bring this insight about chemistry to Las Vegas and see if you can get a sports book to make you a proposition bet that he hits .280 or better in his next 40 PA, and take the "over" at even money.

    We stink and the head stinker is Terry Ryan.  Don't give me any more crap about patience.  Whoever is failing beneath the big GM guru is stinking because of the system this man has put in place.  Pull the plug, flush the commode, move on, Jim Pohlad total system failure starts at the head of the system. 

    The Royals... like the Twins tried to build without spending gobs of cash. 

     

    Dayton Moore managed to keep his job after years of struggling like Terry Ryan. 

     

    After that... I don't see many things that are comparable. 

     

    I remember reading reports that Dayton was out of lengthy rope when he abruptly changed course and put it all on red with the Myers, Odorizzi and Montgomery deal for Shields. Let's not forget about Montgomery he was pretty nice prospect as well.

     

    Dayton had to produce a winner or he was gone and I assume this caused him to part with lots of prospects for someone to sit on top of the rotation... actually to fill out his terrible rotation.  

     

    The Fans hated the move and they probably hated Dayton Moore and the trade probably required a stronger adjective than hate toward Dayton Moore.

     

    If the Royals didn't win after the deal... Not only would he be fired but restaurants would refuse service when he tried to order some burnt ends. "Give up Wil Myers did ya... Get out of here". 

     

    It was desperation that caused him to finally risk it all and when he did... he completely broke away from any Terry Ryan model. He may have declared that he was following the Twins model but it didn't bring him home. 

     

    As for Wade Davis... In my opinion... he got really lucky but hey... that happens sometimes and he does get credit for that luck because he has a history of turning failed starters into bullpen assets. Hochevar and Duffy for example. 

     

    Wade Davis was really young (23 and 24 years old) but very average his first two years as a starter for the Rays. In his third year with the Rays at age 25... He was moved to the bullpen... He didn't get a single start that year. No Saves and only 6 holds so lower leverage stuff but his K/9 jumped from 5.14 as starter to 11.13 in the Rays pen. 

     

    Dayton Moore... I'm just guessing... probably agrees to Wade Davis because Tampa had no idea what they had (neither did Moore I'm guessing) and KC was desperate for starting pitching and his job is on the line. Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen were all they had!!! So Dayton acquires Ervin Santana in an earlier deal and later pulls the trigger on the Shields/Davis Trade to complete the rotation.  

     

    Dayton's plan went wrong because Davis started 24 games and produced a 5.32 ERA and he was Phil Hughes'd into the bullpen and then the magic happened. 

     

    Think about this:

     

    If this is truly trading places... Terry Ryan just might be in that same desperate to keep your job situation that caused Dayton to trade Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. 

     

    Buxton... Meyer and Gonsalves for who? That would be a comparable trade to what Moore did with his back against the wall.  

     

    Does anyone want Terry Ryan to make that trade for a Shields type starter? 

     

     

     

     

     

    Does anyone want Terry Ryan to make that trade for a Shields type starter? 

     

    It's not that simple because Moore had added someone like Cain previously that made Myers more expendable.  (Not to mention that Myers was a bit miscast - not good enough to be a CF defensively and not elite enough offensively to be a corner OF)

     

    So to answer your question - yes I would.  Not this coming offseason, but perhaps the next.  But only if it's for a good prospect that is blocked.  

    True but that's also not that simple.  :)

     

    Cain wasn't Cain yet. He was a light hitting defensive guy at the time of the trade and they also had Francour and Lough manning RF so OF wasn't exactly blocking Myers. 

     

    Also... Let me amend my earlier question and phrase it better... like I intended. 

     

    Would you want Terry Ryan?

     

    Trading Buxton, Meyer and Gonsalves for what he felt was a Shields type starter. 

     

     

    I love this quote from Dayton Moore

     

    "It's not as simple as saying, 'This is what's going to happen in Year 1 and Year 2.' That's bull. If you make enough good decisions, three-year plans turn into two-year plans and five-year plans turn into three-year plans. If you make bad decisions, 10-year plans turn into no plan."

    Here's another smaller thing to ponder:

     

    Omar Infante is owed 16 million on his current contract. He is currently hitting .239 with no dingers and his butt has been placed on the bench.

     

    Higher expectations and a willingness to eat some cash could be considered differences.  

     

     

     

    True but that's also not that simple.  :)

     

    Cain wasn't Cain yet. He was a light hitting defensive guy at the time of the trade and they also had Francour and Lough manning RF so OF wasn't exactly blocking Myers. 

     

    Also... Let me amend my earlier question and phrase it better... like I intended. 

     

    Would you want Terry Ryan?

     

    Trading Buxton, Meyer and Gonsalves for what he felt was a Shields type starter. 

     

    For the Twins I don't think it would look like that.  I know you're trying to match up prospect ratings the best you can, but it's hard to set up those same circumstances.

     

    If the general point is - do you want him to trade a handful of the best prospects for a high end arm and some extra parts - the answer is yes.  If he's timing it to coincide with a bust out of the young players.  I think the 2017 offseason may be the ideal time for that if Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc. are rolling along.

     

    I liked the Myers deal at the time for KC.  He was betting on his young players and he bet correctly.

    The Twins before TF targeted pitchers that were contact pitchers.  They were less expensive than K pitchers, they also require good defensive players behind them.  Strong glove guys are often less offensive threats than offense first players.  They are also cheaper.  It was a strategy built mostly on necessity (and pure cheapness) and TK did what he could with it.  Gardy as well.

     

    Now, obviously, there were some players that were exceptions, but mostly our teams were like that for a long time.

     

    The Twins before TF targeted pitchers that were contact pitchers.  They were less expensive than K pitchers, they also require good defensive players behind them.  Strong glove guys are often less offensive threats than offense first players.  They are also cheaper.  It was a strategy built mostly on necessity (and pure cheapness) and TK did what he could with it.  Gardy as well.

     

    Now, obviously, there were some players that were exceptions, but mostly our teams were like that for a long time.

    Yet the Royals won it all last year with the best defense, one of the lowest strikeout staffs in the league, with a middling offense that managed to score runs.  TK might have understood something.  The difference between the best K/9 teams  and the worst was between 1 and 2 K/9 Leaguewise K/9 did not start creeping up until the mid 90's    That is also the timeframe for the start of the steroid era  TK's era a better defense was more important than high strikeout pitchers.  In the era of 4 or 5 strikeouts a game, not walking people was the best thing a pitcher could do. Times change, though KC has proven you do not need to be more than even league average K/9  to be successful

     

    Edited by The Wise One

    The Twins before TF targeted pitchers that were contact pitchers.  They were less expensive than K pitchers, they also require good defensive players behind them.  Strong glove guys are often less offensive threats than offense first players.  They are also cheaper.  It was a strategy built mostly on necessity (and pure cheapness) and TK did what he could with it.  Gardy as well.

     

    Now, obviously, there were some players that were exceptions, but mostly our teams were like that for a long time.

    And now power has become cheap(er) and we are suddenly all about power. Or were supposed to be. I don't want Ryan trading our good young stock for a late 20's or early 30's SP. if you have to buy one, buy one. But you cannot even consider trading Buxton, Kepler, or a Sano. Comparisons? Ask the Royals how long it told Moose, Gordon, etc to get there. That always takes longer than we like. But to make the wait eventually successful, you have to be willing to take some losses, and I don't mean in the W/L column. I mean in trades, to clear blocking and dead wood. For example you can't view Dozier and Plouffe as actual 3 and 4 hitters and expect a comparable return. And Ryan does, so trades become almost impossible, financially and "emotionally". You have to bite the bullet and move. most teams who have a successful player who is struggling, give him a chance right himself. The Twins on the other hand take players without a history of success and hope they suddenly succeed. You can draw on 18 and hope you hit a 3, but the math ain't good.



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