Will Lower-Than-Anticipated Attendance and Payroll Limitations Impact Twins Trade Deadline?

The 2024 MLB trade deadline is just over two weeks away, and front offices will be fielding calls on players throughout the organization. The Twins enter the All-Star break with more than an 80% chance of making the playoffs, and are still within striking distance of Cleveland for the AL Central title. If the front office wants to add players, there are multiple factors to consider, including current and future payroll limitations. So, how will the trade deadline be impacted by Target Field attendance and the Pohlad family’s decision to reduce payroll?

Payroll Limitations in 2024 and Beyond
The Twins’ front office has shown a tendency to target players with more than one year of team control. Unfortunately, Joe Pohlad and the ownership group decided to cut payroll by $30 million this offseason. This cut prevented the team from making significant offseason acquisitions, and even forced the club to trade long-time infielder Jorge Polanco to make payroll space. Minnesota has found ways to continue to win in 2024 despite the payroll drop, but the future is even murkier.

Next season, the Twins see some of their best players get a bump in pay. Pablo López is making $8.25 million this season, but is scheduled to receive a raise to $21.75 million in 2025. Carlos Correa gets a slight pay hike, an increase of $4 million, because of how his contract's total value was divided among its six seasons. There will also be multiple arbitration-eligible players who see a significant salary jump, including regulars like Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers. Minnesota’s front office must consider these projected salary increases when trading for players. 

Less Clarity on the TV Situation
For 2024, the Twins re-signed with Diamond Sports Group, the parent company for Bally Sports North. In 2023, Dave St. Peter said that the Twins made around $60 million in their television deal. Minnesota won’t announce how much the team is making in the current deal, but it is believed to be between $35-45 million. Even with this influx, the team failed to make any additional moves this winter to add payroll.

St. Peter is hopeful that games will be back on TV “soon,” with Comcast and Diamond Sports feuding since May 1.

"Yeah, there's all kinds of urgency. Certainly, the baseball team, which we're not a part of that negotiation, are urging all sides to come together and to get a deal done," St. Peter explains. "I do know there's some ongoing conversations, and I think that's good. I'm hopeful that you're gonna see Twins baseball back on Comcast soon."

Lower-Than-Anticipated Attendance
During the winter, the Twins talked openly about expecting an increase in attendance for the 2024 season. Minnesota had seen a rise in attendance over the last two seasons, from 1.8 million in 2022 to 1.97 million last season. St. Peter talked at TwinsFest about anticipating home attendance exceeding 2 million for the first time since 2019. The team was coming off a division title and their first playoff series victory in two decades, so would only make sense for fan morale to be high.

Unfortunately, the team’s projections didn’t consider other factors, like the slashed payroll and television issues. Attendance is down by nearly 1,200 fans per game, compared to the same per-game figures through this point last season. They're averaging fewer than 22,000 fans per game so far, which makes it nearly impossible for the Twins to draw over 2 million fans on the season. They're 23rd in overall attendance and 21st in year-over-year attendance change. Lower television viewership leads to lower attendance by reducing fan engagement and enthusiasm, which will have payroll implications beyond the current season.

Minnesota is on pace to win more than 90 games and qualify for the playoffs for the second straight season, but ownership’s choices are starting to have long-term effects. 

Trade Deadline Outlook
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown the ability to be aggressive at the trade deadline when they believe there are clear roster needs. The Twins have needs this season, but the front office is in a tough payroll spot for 2024 and beyond. Minnesota stood pat at last year’s deadline, and they will likely do something similar this year, because of everything outlined above. 

How will these issues impact the trade deadline? Will attendance improve at Target Field in the second half? Leave a comment and start the discussion.