How the Twins and Blue Jays Can Match Up on a Big Trade Again

In July 2021, Derek Falvey contacted the Toronto Blue Jays to send Jose Berrios north. Talk of contract extensions for Berrios and Byron Buxton had run rampant, but Minnesota’s front office decided to cash in their starter instead. With not only Austin Martin, but also Simeon Woods Richardson, the return was substantial.

Heading into 2024, the Blue Jays need a corner outfielder and a third baseman. Daulton Varsho is moving to center field, leaving George Springer in one of the corners. Max Kepler could play the opposite corner, and his defensive abilities would give them an excellent group on the grass (er, turf).

Although Jorge Polanco hasn’t played much at third base, he did see innings there for Minnesota last season, and his ability to contribute as the designated hitter helps, too. Second base isn’t a huge need for the Blue Jays, with Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal rostered, but neither possesses the same offensive prowess that the Twins infielder brings.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Blue Jays would be interested in compromising their major-league roster's competitive outlook in the short term. Bo Bichette is a superstar, Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young finalist, and the team took a massive, ultimately doomed swing to add Shohei Ohtani. Still, some pieces could be had, and Minnesota finding something usable for one or both of their veterans seems to add up. Here are a trio of trades that could work.

For Polanco: Twins receive Alek Manoah and Connor Cooke
In 2024, Polanco will play his age-30 season. He is under contract for $10.5 million and carries a $12-million team option in 2025. He has played shortstop (poorly) and second base (well) during his career, but transitioning to the hot corner with some runway to get reps wouldn’t be unrealistic. Polanco’s reactions and instincts may work well alongside Bichette, and the Blue Jays may find themselves putting together a solid offensive infield.

In return, the Twins could take a major gamble. Manoah is a former All-Star, and finished third in the Cy Young voting two years ago. He hit rock bottom in a very public way last season, though, and Toronto sent him down to the Florida Complex League for a massive reset. A change of scenery and tweaks of pitching philosophy may help to resurrect his career. If things don’t change quickly, though, there is a chance Manoah never rebounds.

Throwing in Cooke gives the Twins something of a safety net. He’s a former 10th-round pick who finds himself at the bottom of the Blue Jays top 30 prospects', according to MLB.com. Cooke has yet to throw 60 innings during a season of pro ball, and he’s transitioned to relief work. Toronto did push Cooke to Triple-A Buffalo last year, so he’s technically knocking on the door, but he owned just a 4.38 ERA at Double A and was giving up 1.1 HR/9. The strikeout numbers are the draw here, and he has done a relatively good job at limiting walks. There’s a chance Cooke works himself into a Griffin Jax-type role with added velocity, or he could be a quality middle reliever if the jump doesn’t happen.

For Kepler: Twins receive Erik Swanson
Kepler has been available, in varying degrees, for three years. The Twins shouldn’t be looking to ship him out for nothing, though, and at $10 million, he need not sustain all the success he found in the second half of 2023 to be a worthwhile bargain. A good defender with a 121 OPS+ last year, Kepler would provide John Schneider with a loaded outfield. Even if he doesn’t replicate the offensive output, his defense should be worth exploring the move for Toronto.

As mentioned, it seems unlikely the Blue Jays want to cannibalize their big-league roster while looking to compete. Swanson is a player who should be available, though. The 30-year-old reliever is under team control for two more seasons, and has established himself as a legitimate medium- to high-leverage arm. Since his 2021 stint with the Seattle Mariners, Swanson owns a 2.60 ERA and 3.04 FIP. He puts up big strikeout numbers and controls the basepaths. Minnesota doesn’t need a closer or even a setup man, but something like this lengthens the bullpen, and that could be huge.

The Twins front office hasn’t ever really paid for bullpen help outside of Addison Reed, and it seems unlikely that that pattern will break in a year where payroll is on their minds. Shedding Kepler’s dollars while getting a good bullpen arm makes a lot of sense.

For Both Polanco and Kepler: Twins receive Addison Barger and Yosver Zulueta
I would put very little chance on Polanco and Kepler going in the same package, but the Blue Jays may be inclined to add both. I considered adding Christian Vazquez to this scenario and having the return focus around Danny Jansen. Still, Minnesota could also use the prospects as part of a follow-up deal.

Ricky Tiedemann is sure to be off the table. Orelvis Martinez isn’t an ideal fit and has a very high acquisition cost. Arjun Nimmala is too far away to help Minnesota now, and so is Brandon Barriera. Barger was a sixth-round pick in 2018 and played 2023 at Triple A. He posted just a .756 OPS, but is a season removed from a .933 OPS and 26 homers. Barger can play every infield position, but has spent most of his time on the left side.

Pairing Barger’s ceiling with another near-ready prospect could lessen the blow of losing two players from the active roster. Zulueta was signed out of Cuba and features an upper-90s fastball. He will be 26 in 2024, but he threw 64 innings at Triple A last year. He doesn’t give up any homers, but walks too many batters. There are some Yennier Cano comparisons to be made here, but Minnesota would have a chance to mold him into a reliever with a myriad of possible outcomes.

If Falvey pulls the trigger on moving an established player like Polanco or Kepler, he will want to find a way to replace their production almost immediately. Trading with a team focused on winning doesn’t always present that opportunity, but these three options seem to provide an avenue for something to work.

Are any of these trades enough for the Blue Jays to act? Which of them would you be most excited about?