The Potential Return of a Kyle Gibson Trade

There are currently three big factors going in the Twins favor. The first is how well Gibson has been pitching dating back to the end of last season. Another factor helping Gibson’s trade value is the lack of good available starting pitchers on the trade market. There have been rumors around Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Chris Archer, but there is a good chance that none of those three get traded before the deadline. After that the list of available starting pitchers drops off considerably, and Gibson is arguably better than all of them. The final thing helping Gibson’s trade value is the extra year of team control for 2019.

What kind of return could the Twins get in exchange for Kyle Gibson? Look at some of the other trades that have already been made. On Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays struck a deal that sent Nathan Eovaldi to the Red Sox in exchange for Jalen Beeks. Beeks was recently ranked as the 6th best prospect in the Red Sox system by Baseball America. The Red Sox system isn’t as strong as most other farm systems across the league, so that ranking may look better than what Beeks would rank in many other systems.

When comparing Kyle Gibson and Nathan Eovaldi, Gibson would easily be viewed as the more desirable trade candidate. Not only is Gibson more appealing for the remainder of this season, but he also has that extra year of control that Eovaldi doesn’t have. So it could be assumed that the package for Gibson would be a much better return than Jalen Beeks.

To get a better idea of which prospects the Twins might be targeting, let’s break down a couple different teams that might have some interest in Kyle Gibson and see what they have to offer.

Milwaukee Brewers

Not only have the Brewers been in talks with the Twins in regards to both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, but they now have an interest in Kyle Gibson as well. A big part of this stems from the recent injury to Brent Suter, who will likely need Tommy John Surgery and probably won’t be back before the end of the 2019 season. For the Brewers, Kyle Gibson would make the perfect replacement in their rotation for Suter.

When looking at the Brewers farm system, they have two key prospects that stick out: second baseman Keston Hiura and right-handed pitcher Corbin Burns. Hiura and Burns currently rank 34^th and 58^th respectively in Baseball America’s Top 100. Personally, I don’t see the Brewers giving up Hiura for Gibson, and I think it is unlikely that they will give up Burns for Gibson (at least not straight up).

I think a deal for Gibson will wind up revolving around either Freddy Peralta or Corey Ray, along with an additional quality or prospect or two. Of the two, I personally prefer Ray to Peralta, even though Peralta is an MLB ready pitcher and Ray is an outfield prospect (of which the Twins have plenty). My reasoning for this is the upside on Corey Ray appears to be a lot higher than the upside on Freddy Peralta. With his stuff, I don’t see Peralta becoming anything better than a 3 or 4 starter, while Ray brings a rare combination of speed and power in the outfield. There are some concerns about some swing and miss in Ray’s game, but he has moved in the right direction lowering his strikeout rate from 31 percent down to 27.2 percent, while increasing his walk rate from 9.5 percent up to 11 percent at Double-A this season.

Oakland Athletics

With their surge over the past month, the Oakland A’s have vaulted themselves right into playoff contention. A big part of their success comes from their hitters and relievers, who rank 7^th and 9^th respectively in fWAR in the MLB. However, if there is one area in which the A’s could use some improvement, it is their starting rotation.

The Athletics farm system is headlined by two stud pitchers in Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. However I don’t see either one of those guys being made available in a trade for Gibson. I think the trade would actually revolve around catching prospect Sean Murphy. While Murphy is know a little more for his glove and his arm behind the plate, he is also putting together a nice season offensively with a .291/.359/.509 slash line (128 wRC+) in 65 Double-A games this season. Murphy is currently ranked as the 3^rd best prospect in the A’s system and the 59^th best prospect overall.

I could also see Minnesota native Logan Shore possibly being involved in a package for Gibson. While he certainly won’t be the headliner of the deal, the 23-year-old pitching prospect could make a good secondary prospect in the deal.

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Colorado Rockies

As Jeremy Nygaard recently pointed out, the Colorado Rockies would also make an excellent suitor for Kyle Gibson’s services. The Rockies are a team that is always looking for starting pitching help, and adding a starter with an extra year of control has always been something they have sought.

In Jeremy’s article, he touched on Rockies corner-infield prospect Ryan McMahon as a potential return. As an MLB-ready bat, and the ability to play third, McMahon could step in nicely and become the Twins full time third baseman as soon as the end of this season. After McMahon, a couple prospects to keep your eye on are middle-infielder Garrett Hampson and third basemen Colton Welker. Hampson is close to MLB ready and could give Nick Gordon some competition for the starting second base job next season, while Welker is still a couple years away and could join the elite group of prospects the Twins already have in Fort Myers.

The Twins might also ask on pitching prospect Peter Lambert, but as is usually the case with the Rockies, they are more reluctant to give away their pitching prospects as free agent starting pitchers tend to stay away from Colorado.

The Brewers, Athletics and Rockies are three teams that I see as great fits for Kyle Gibson, but there are other possibilities. Numerous teams could be looking for an extra starter to help them in a postseason run. Right now, Gibson is certainly that.