Struggles Have Highlighted Twins Correct Deadline Decisions

"The calendar has flipped to August, the Minnesota Twins are now 51-51, just three games above .500, and the problems are mounting."

 

That's some fuzzy math, right there... even if you ignore that they are 54-54.

I think there was a typo - they were 54-51 when the post was written as a blog - it transferred to the forum a couple days later, when the Twins were 54-53 . . .

The thing that bugs me the most is that acquiring Jepsen is worse than doing nothing at all. He's not much better than promoting one of the AAA guys in favor of Duensing/Boyer/your pick.... 

I wasn't hoping for Price, or Tulo, or Lucroy, Derek Norris, or anything extravagant. Leading up to the deadline all I wanted was for the Twins to be open to making a move if it made sense and addressed a need. 

Technically Jepsen improved the bullpen because he was better than the worst arm in there, but it only made sense to go after guys that were much better than the current crop, not just slightly better. 

It would have been fine if Jepsen was the 2nd (or 3rd) guy the Twins added in July, but to be the only move feels like doing something just so they can pretend like they tried.

Really? Who do we have that can be a reliable shortstop in the near future? Who do we have that can catch? Who do we have that can be an ace pitcher? Who do we have that would even be a #2 on a real good team?

Barrios is going to be a good starter, but as a #3 most likely, but not a top of the order ace. Stewart now seems to be missing bats but not striking anyone out but he's not even yet at high "A". Sounds just like Mr. Hu, but we gave him away for a poor middle reliever. Our pair of 6'7" pitching prospects? One is a set up guy and the other is floundering in the minors. I don't see a potential starting line up here to put fear in anyone.

The infield? We have an All-Star at 2nd. AND, well....we have an All-Star at 2nd. Our Catcher can't frame a pitch and cannot throw or hit. Our 1st baseman is being paid for what he did 5 years ago, but today is a shell of that person. At third we have an adequate starter. Shortstop? God help us we have no one we can count on to hit or field.

Prospects, we have a potential All-Star at 3rd. If he doesn't eat himself into the DH spot. We have Max Kepler who can rake, but is injured more than Buxton. We've got A B Walker who can flat out kill it, but he strikes out more often that an NL starting pitcher.

Let's assume ABW & Sano hit 30 & 40 dingers each and we get another 25 out of Dozier. Let's assume Buxton and Kepler hit .300 plus. We have a real good offense and a very good defensive outfield. We have about 60% of a starting staff and a possible closing ace.

This makes for an exciting offensive team but overall a team that can contend for the wild card. I also assumed everything at it's best and ignored catching and short.

Well...... in the case of trading for Tulo, it didn't take Berrios, Sano, or Buxton or two of the three. He was traded for much much less. Think choice of Arcia or Vargas, Kohl Stewart, Alex Meyer, choice of Escobar, Santana, Polanco, or Gordon.... and all you have done is given up redundancies that this team is not trading by the "best by" dates. Every team has untouchables. The Dodgers could still do trades without giving up players like Joc Pederson, and everyone wanted him. All of the players I mentioned still have tons of value, even though the Twins don't seem to know how to get it. Does Liriano have more value than Escobar? I think so, and the Twins with Ryan/Gardenhire/Anderson didn't know how to handle the talent. 2 down, 1 to go. Then things might change.

You really think the Rockies would have traded the best shortstop in the game for Arcia, Stewart, Meyer, and Santana?  There is no possible way that would happen.

Really? Who do we have that can be a reliable shortstop in the near future? Who do we have that can catch? Who do we have that can be an ace pitcher? Who do we have that would even be a #2 on a real good team?

Barrios is going to be a good starter, but as a #3 most likely, but not a top of the order ace. Stewart now seems to be missing bats but not striking anyone out but he's not even yet at high "A". Sounds just like Mr. Hu, but we gave him away for a poor middle reliever. Our pair of 6'7" pitching prospects? One is a set up guy and the other is floundering in the minors. I don't see a potential starting line up here to put fear in anyone.

The infield? We have an All-Star at 2nd. AND, well....we have an All-Star at 2nd. Our Catcher can't frame a pitch and cannot throw or hit. Our 1st baseman is being paid for what he did 5 years ago, but today is a shell of that person. At third we have an adequate starter. Shortstop? God help us we have no one we can count on to hit or field.

Prospects, we have a potential All-Star at 3rd. If he doesn't eat himself into the DH spot. We have Max Kepler who can rake, but is injured more than Buxton. We've got A B Walker who can flat out kill it, but he strikes out more often that an NL starting pitcher.

Let's assume ABW & Sano hit 30 & 40 dingers each and we get another 25 out of Dozier. Let's assume Buxton and Kepler hit .300 plus. We have a real good offense and a very good defensive outfield. We have about 60% of a starting staff and a possible closing ace.

This makes for an exciting offensive team but overall a team that can contend for the wild card. I also assumed everything at it's best and ignored catching and short.

Kohl Stewart is at High A, and has been all year.

wait...now he's the best shortstop in the game? ? I thought he was old, injury prone, and and too expensive..

He IS the best shortstop in the game, but he is also old, injury prone, and expensive at the same time; nowhere does it say those things have to be mutually exclusive.  I would have been ok trading for Tulo, and I would have been ok not trading for Tulo, based entirely on the acquisition cost.

I disagree with the OP on several levels.

it is too soon, 6 days after the trade deadline to determine whether the Twins actions (or lack thereof) were the correct ones. While unlikely what if the Twins go  on a roll and end up a game or tow out of the playoffs. Then it would be reasonable that just another move or two might have made the difference.  

While the players are professionals they are also people and they may have been disappointed that nothing (or little) was done. Perhaps a e significant move might have given them an impetus to play with more passion? I don't know but it certainly can be a factor.

No one has yet addressed amjgt salient question:

What results would have shown the deadline (non)-Moves to be the wrong decision.

I am concerned that if the Twins would have won all their games since the AS break that the OP would be arguing that doing nothing at the deadline was the correct decisions since the Twins are doing so well anyway!

I don't even hate the trade itself but more the idea of making such a meaningless trade. I'd rather the Twins wait until the off-season than semi-act like there still in contention. Even if it's b.s. just say the asking price was too high. Any player who maybe could kept the team in the wildcard spot that's probably true.

The thing that bugs me the most is that acquiring Jepsen is worse than doing nothing at all. He's not much better than promoting one of the AAA guys in favor of Duensing/Boyer/your pick.... 

 

I wasn't hoping for Price, or Tulo, or Lucroy, Derek Norris, or anything extravagant. Leading up to the deadline all I wanted was for the Twins to be open to making a move if it made sense and addressed a need. 

 

Technically Jepsen improved the bullpen because he was better than the worst arm in there, but it only made sense to go after guys that were much better than the current crop, not just slightly better. 

 

It would have been fine if Jepsen was the 2nd (or 3rd) guy the Twins added in July, but to be the only move feels like doing something just so they can pretend like they tried.

Acquiring Jepsen is better than nothing.  It wasn't enough!  Will the Twins have a bullpen problem next year?  Of course they will!  Obtaining multiple options for the pen was needed--but didn't happen.  It's as if Ryan made the Jepsen trade ..."and called it Macaroni."  More help is required.

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No possible way? Uhh, the trade the Jays made suggests there was every possible way that something resembling the above deal would have worked. It is now obvious that the Rockies top priority was a salary dump. The Jays stole Tulo in this deal, and dumped Reyes besides.

The Jays package was way superior to that Twins one.  Reyes is far more valuable than Santana, and Hoffman has better numbers in the same league as Stewart despite coming off Tommy John.  Miguel Castro struck out a batter/inning at 3 levels of A ball as a 19 year old last year while throwing up a 2.68 ERA and a .178 BAA.  He's been worse this year, mostly because the Jays jumped him up too far too fast.  Meanwhile, Meyer this year at 25 has a 5.97 ERA in AAA, so Castro is better than Meyer.

So what it comes down to is Tinoco v Arcia.  Tinoco turned 20 in April, and has been starting all year at low A, where he's put up a 3.30 ERA, 7.7 k/9, 2.3 bb/9, and a .266 BAA.  Arcia turned 24 in May, and has only OPS'd .695 at AAA (despite his past power-hitting success), while striking out 29% of the time, and putting up a 4.1/1 k/bb ratio.  Add to the fact that the Rockies can't DH him, and he becomes even less valuable.  I think it's pretty clear to anyone that isn't over-valuing Santana/Stewart/Meyer/Arcia that the Jays package is better.

Reyes was a salary dump by the Jays.  The Jays wouldn't do the trade without getting the Rockies to take Reyes. Colorado didn't want to take Reyes.  They ended up taking Reyes because they found that preferable to eating a good chunk of Tulo's contract.  When you look at the players, the money involved and so on, it was a very light return for Tulo.

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No possible way? Uhh, the trade the Jays made suggests there was every possible way that something resembling the above deal would have worked. It is now obvious that the Rockies top priority was a salary dump. The Jays stole Tulo in this deal, and dumped Reyes besides.

Aside from getting one of the very best in the game, if this trade highlighted anything, it's that you can overpay for a player in his prime and then trade him for an even better player if you're willing to take the chances.  People forget that quality free agent or trade acquisitions can be traded if necessary, as long as you're willing to eat some celery, er... salary.  You know unless they get injured bad or are Joe Mauer.  

Also, getting the best of the best always requires overpaying.  You can go through your whole life drinking Jack Daniels and Kendall Jackson because the difference between a $200 bottle and $25 bottle might not be $175 worth.  Or a Perkin's steak vs. a Manny's steak.  That's fine, but then you'll die having never had a great wine or a perfect steak.

I have a feeling that if we had been awesome since the AS break and/or trade deadline, this same kind of article could have been posted with a different title: 'Winning has highlighted twins correct deadline decisions.'

If one tries hard enough, they can always justify inaction.

You mean.... you think that the Jays package was way superior to my example that the Twins could have offered, don't you? My original post was an example, not necessarily "the package" to be dissected, but an example of a package that would not "gut the farm", and deal with redundancies. I did enjoy the breakdown you gave, though, and thanks for that. Modify the package however you like. I personally think that you are undervaluing the Twins' players - like many undervalued Carlos Gomez and Francisco Liriano and Aaron Hicks and Trevor Plouffe on these boards - and are over valuing the Jays traded players (much like Meyer was overvalued by Ryan in the trade for Span). I mean.... the Twins paid about 50 million each for Nolasco and Santana, extended Hughes with 2 years left on his contract, and then there's the resigning of Pelfrey for the 2 years. The Twins seem to like redundancies, including the redundancies of middle of the rotation arms that can't strike people out but are hoped to eat innings (even though they really didn't/don't). 

Yes, I think the Jays package is better.  I don't know if TR ever offered the Rockies your proposed package; if he did than obviously the Rockies preferred the Jays package.  If not, we'll never know.  I think we absolutely could have made a package the Rockies would have preferred, but I'm assuming 3 out of Gibson/Berrios, Polanco, and Kepler are in it, unless we're including Sano or Buxton.

Anyways, my point was that the Jays package isn't really that bad, especially if the Rockies can grab a couple more pieces by moving Reyes in the offseason or at the break next year, or if Tulo breaks down and declines.