Sizing Up The Competition: Detroit Tigers

Do not know if they will be able to hang on this year, but they will be in total rebuild mode within the next couple of years.  Or the owner can really open the pocketbook to try and save this team, but they will still have to guess right on who to buy.

I think they are still favorites.  They just aren't overwhelming favorites.    Last 3 years they were much better than even odds to win the division.  Like 3:1 or better.   Now I would say more like 3-10, Twins would be 1-10 and the other teams 2-10 all give or take a couple % points.  .   What if they all finish 82-80?

I don't see them finishing outside of the top three in the division.  They probably have two of the top three hitters in the division (Miggy and Victor), the other being Abreu.  That will limite their downside. The pitching will take a huge step back, no doubt.

Between age, payroll, and their farm system, this team is definitely a long term train wreck. This should work out perfectly with the Twins window.

I've never understood why they didn't do more to fix the bullpen the last few years (or why they did what they did).

Now I just have a sense that their time has come -- and gone.  They may still squeak out the division title but there is no sense of inevitability or dominance.

Health will likely be the determining factor for them. If they lose any two of Verlander, Sanchez, Price, Cabrera, or Martinez to injury, the door is wide open, and if they lose two of these guys from either the mound or the plate, they could crater.

I don't see them finishing outside the top three if their luck is neutral.

 

But given the potential age issues with Verlander, Miggy, and Martinez, it's not hard to imagine the Tigers' 2015 looking a lot like the Twins' 2011. The Twins completely collapsed that season and they were younger than the Tigers are going into this season.

 

That kind of collapse is unlikely but given how many of the Tigers' key players are over 30, it's not unimaginable that they could crash hard and fast.

I don't see much resemblence to the Twins in 2011. The guys we had play really well in 2010 did not have the track record that Miguel Cabrera, Victor,  etc.  

At the end of the day I think they still have the best lineup in division and I don't think it is really close.  They outscored us by 42, Cleveland by 88, Chicago by 97, and KC by 106.   So 90+  losses seems very, very unlikely. 

The Twins had some solid young players in 2010. Mauer and Morneau, obviously.

 

My point isn't that the Tigers will implode, it's that given the average age of their best players, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

I think Detroit will be one of three ALC teams in the 81-85 win range: DET, KC, CLE. You can even toss the Whities in there if a few things break right for them.

 

Obviously, the ALC won't have four teams in the 81-85 win range but going into the season, I think most of the division has a reasonable shot at that mark (including the Twins if things really go right for them). One of the teams will "break out" a bit and be better than that but on paper, this division is *really* tight.

Pretty much agree. I think it will be a tight, relatively wide open division.  Not a particularly good division.

Nope. Not particularly good, not particularly bad. Probably the most competitive division in baseball for that reason. No team stands out as a clear favorite, no team is penciled in for 90+ losses (some think the Twins might end up there but I don't really buy it, I think they're good for at least 75 wins).

 

If the Royals manage to get Shields back, they're the only threat for 90 wins, IMO.

It would not break my heart to see them give Shields a 5 year deal.

(then again, I don't think the Nolasco/Santana signings are going to work out in the long run for the Twins, either).

Valid point, but Shields is a year older and his pay is likely to be closer to $20M a year.

Depends how you rank divisions.    Ii simply look at how the division does as a whole.   By that standard the Central was the weakest division in the American League  but would still rank ahead of 2 of the National League Division.    To me Division strength should be judged based on the weakest teams also and if things work out as we hope for the Twins there probably won't be any real weak teams as there have in the past and as there are in other divisions..     I am looking for a big bounce back year for Mauer for us.   I am guessing Verlander is capable of a bounce back as well for the Tigers.      Its true that if Detroit has a year like the 2011 Twins they could lose over 90 games but that has been true the last 3 years as well.   No team can lose their two MVP players and have only three guys play over 100 games to go along with the top two pitchers having terrible years.    No need to go there.   Its true of all teams. 

I think the Tigers have one more year in them. Win the division with 89 wins.

Also, agree with those who think the window is closing on the Tigers. With their farm system in shambles it won't be long before time catches up with them.

The Tigers have replaced 6 of 8 position players in just the last 2 years. Look it up, only Avila is the same as 2 years ago. Miggy is there too, but moved from 3rd to 1st. EVERY other position player is different.

 

The Tigers have rebuilt the position player part of the team while staying competitive.

 

As for the pitching:

 

Price replaced Scherzer.

Rondon, Soria, Verlander and Sanchez figure to be back at 100%. All had significant injuries last year.

Greene and Simon are a slight downgrade from Porcello and Symly... but not enough to make that much of a difference.

 

The Tigers had a lot of bad luck with injuries to pitchers last year. They should be better this year.

Plus, the Tigers have shown a willingness to add quality veterans mid-season--as opposed to the local team.  The Tigers owner has demonstrated that he will spend on his sports teams to enjoy his money now rather than just accumulate for others.  The estimate for this season's win total (by TD posters) likely didn't include any significant roster changes (on any team).  But, there will be changes made.

The Tigers will have a good shot if Miggy, Verlander and V-Mart stay healthy all year.  I don't see that happening.  Miggy and Verlander have played an enormous amount of baseball for being 32 years old, and they've been getting (and playing) hurt.  V-Mart is 36, with some lingering injuries.   If  those guys aren't at least close to full strength for much of the year, I think the team falls apart.  Toss in the chances that Joe Nathan is fading away, and what have you got?

Prospects are the currency of mid-season upgrades, and the 2015 Tigers are rather poor in that department. Though I suppose they may be willing to eat another team's salary dump (which would only make their long-term future bleaker).

Not necessarily--it's just money.  It is wrong to assume that other teams manage the same way as the Twins.

I think the Tigers have one more year in them. Win the division with 89 wins.

 

Also, agree with those who think the window is closing on the Tigers. With their farm system in shambles it won't be long before time catches up with them.

I agree with this assessment.  The Tigers have the deepest rotation in the division.  the question is how will their pen hold up.  I am surprised they are not making any moves with whats still available this offseason.  Their offense is good too.  Next year they could be competitive too but after that I am going to start doubting it.  Next year they'll need Price to resign or a good replacement.  But after next season when their offensive pieces are all 2 years older I can see several of them breaking down and slowing down as well. 

The Tigers have replaced 6 of 8 position players in just the last 2 years. Look it up, only Avila is the same as 2 years ago. Miggy is there too, but moved from 3rd to 1st. EVERY other position player is different.

 

The Tigers have rebuilt the position player part of the team while staying competitive.

 

As for the pitching:

 

Price replaced Scherzer.

Rondon, Soria, Verlander and Sanchez figure to be back at 100%. All had significant injuries last year.

Greene and Simon are a slight downgrade from Porcello and Symly... but not enough to make that much of a difference.

 

The Tigers had a lot of bad luck with injuries to pitchers last year. They should be better this year.

But the Tigers are going to have to replace Insler, Miggy, Martinez,  as they are aging and a huge part of the team. On Pitching there is Price as a FA and Verlander and Sanchez aging.  Maybe not this year as I think they will still be good this year but next year will start the slide and really kick into full swing from there IMO.  Unless they have other moves that work out but I think they will be too saddled by bad contracts for a few years.