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    Royals 4, Twins 1: Twins Swing and Miss at Chance to Bury Kansas City


    Steven Trefz

    The Twins looked to push the Royals even further into their rearview mirror Wednesday, after taking the first two games of the series easily. The Royals sent their season-opening ace to the mound in hopes of staying in the race for the long haul. Something had to give. Alas, this time, it wasn't the Kansas City pitching staff.

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    SP: Louie Varland - 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K ( 98 pitches, 66 strikes (67% Strikes)
    Home Runs: Carlos Santana (16)
    Bottom 3 WPA: Ryan Jeffers -.099, Willi Castro -.086, Royce Lewis -.091 

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    image.png.dbf38afd9ace8cdf3b305b431f1c11f7.png

    Get Out the Brooms?
    Wednesday afternoon presented a chance for the Twins to sweep the Royals and to put some much-needed distance between them and their AL Central foe. Louie Varland got the assignment, potentially his final chance to remain firmly in the starter conversation as the playoff push ramps up. The Royals sent their second All-Star starter in as many days to the mound, in hopes of salvaging a game and a hope, as lefty Cole Ragans looked to rebound from already losing two games to the Twins this season (after surrendering only 4 earned runs over 11 innings in March and May).

    Royals Make Things Messy
    Varland’s day started with cluttered bases, and the Royals finally broke through with the first run of the game in the top of the second inning, with a dribbling grounder to Varland that allowed Paul DeJong to score from third. While Varland was able to limit the damage in those first two threats, Bobby Witt Jr. showed him why he’s an MVP threat with a leadoff home run in the top of the third inning to make it 2-0 Royals early.

    Meanwhile, Ragans was looking very much the All-Star, holding the Twins hitless through their first 11 batters.

    Santana Starts a Rally that Never Quite Materializes
    Ragans’s 12th batter faced had more success--much more. Carlos Santana went down swinging in his first at-bat, but left the yard in his second to cut the Royal lead in half.

    José Miranda followed up with a ringing double to left field, but was stranded there. The bottom of the fifth saw the bottom of the Twins lineup continue to batter Ragans around, ultimately loading the bases with two outs for Grand Slam Hero Royce Lewis. Ragans won the battle, however, inducing a weak grounder from Lewis to end the threat.

    Royals Continue to Add to the Pile
    The Twins’ inability to capitalize immediately came back to haunt them in the top of the sixth inning, when DeJong continued his perfect day at the plate with a moonshot to left-center to make the score 3-1 Kansas City, and to essentially finish Varland’s day on the mound.

    Jhoan Durán came in to pitch the seventh inning, after remaining in the bullpen since Friday afternoon. While the move made sense with the heart of the Royals order coming to the plate, it didn’t pay off, with Durán surrendering another run on a two-out double to Vinnie Pasquantino. The Twins have posted the third-highest bullpen ERA since the All-Star break, and today continued this disturbing trend.

    Meanwhile, Ragans seemingly gained energy, movement, and velocity with each insurance run that he was given, mowing down the Twins 1-2-3 in the bottom of the seventh to end his day and hand off a 4-1 lead to the Kansas City bullpen.

    Last Chance to Clean Up?
    In the top of the eighth, Trevor Richards got the call, and after getting the first two outs innocently enough, the drama began: a walk, a single, and another walk to load the bases. Facing Maikel García with a full count, and Witt Jr. in the on-deck circle, Richards threw ball four...but Garcia took a rip anyway, to go down swinging and prevent the nail from reaching the coffin for the moment.

    Would the Twins take advantage of this gift? Manuel Margot and Lewis delivered back-to-back singles against Sam Long in the bottom of the eighth to bring up Santana as the potential tying run. The lone engine of offense for the team today, Santana delivered a deep fly, but to the wrong part of the ballpark, and Kyle Isbel put away out number two at the warning track in center. With Miranda ready to take his cuts at tying the game, the Royals switched to righty Lucas Erceg, and the move paid off with Miranda grounding out weakly to Witt to end yet another Twins threat.

    Steven Okert walked Witt to lead off the ninth, but picked him off to clean off the bases yet again and to get the Twins back in the dugout with a chance for one last rally. Erceg wiped away that dream 1-2-3 to save the game and the moment for this pesky Kansas City ballclub.

    What’s Next? 
    The Twins begin a seven-game road swing in Texas against the stumbling Rangers Thursday evening. This series could be a potential window-shopping opportunity, if Texas looks to shed payroll at the waiver wire after a disappointing season. The Twins send out Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.52 ERA) in hopes that he will continue his dominant ways, while the Rangers have yet to name their starter. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm CT.

    Postgame Interviews

     


    Bullpen Usage Sheet

      SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT
    Richards 0 0 25 0 33 58
    Thielbar 0 32 0 14 0 46
    Okert 0 0 0 15 15 30
    Durán 0 0 0 0 22 22
    Alcalá 0 15 0 0 0 15
    Jax 0 0 12 0 0 12
    Sands 0 9 0 0 0 9

     

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    11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    He did okay, but lets not exaggerate 

    Why not, it is done all the time on here, I have heard 4 or 5 inning starts that were considered great. I watched just about the whole game and Varland did pretty darn good, they way he went about it doesn't seem like the best way going forward, but he did something today SWR has only done in 7 of 20 starts and Festa hasn't done yet and that is pitch 6 innings.

    15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    The Twins got lucky Varland allowed only 3 ER on 8 hits and a walk, including 2HR given his 7.01 FIP. It was a start which didn't bury the Twins, but the lack of offense again is getting old. They're scoring more than 3 runs a game barely 50% of the time back through the Mets series.

    We need more consistent offensive production. It was a winnable game again today, just like the last two flops against Cleveland.

    Who cares about FIP when talking about the game that just happened? We know exactly what happened, I would agree that it looks like the Twins aren't or shouldn't be expecting a quality start out of him every time if he continues to pitch like this. I was watching the KC broadcast and they couldn't stop talking about Witt's homer and how Varland could have made that same pitch 10 more times and it is unlikely it is a homer again.

    and I agree with you on the offense besides Lewis, Santana and Miranda yesterday's lineup was pretty terrible.

    The best case scenario for the Twins moving forward is during the next few weeks Festa and Zebby pitch well enough to possibly allow Varland to move to the pen. There is no guarantee he does well there, but he does provide a power pen arm. He could be joined there by Paddack who likely will not be able to provide a starter's length this year. Obviously the pen could use the reinforcements.

    Here we go again.  People blaming the loss on missed balls and strikes.  Yes the ball and strike calls in baseball are terrible.  They give fans an excuse for their team when they lose.  I'm sure the ball and strike miscues never benefit the Twins.  You never here about it when they do.  I do agree though that those umpires get worse and worse on balls and strikes.  Plus they are so arroga t and confrontational.  They got rid of Angel Hernandez thankfully.  They need to get rid if more starting with that stiff Hunter Wendelstadt. 

    How many times have you seen a team score 10+ in a game and then come out flat the next game.Both Jeffers and Castro made Ragans job easy swing at pitches way out of the zone.Jeffers swung at pitches neck high and Castro at pitches in the dirt.The rest of the lineup wasn't much better swinging at the first pitch they saw.It makes the pitchers job easy when they swing at his pitch every at bat.Ragans hadn't thrown 50 pitches into the 5th inning.

    15 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I agree with mikelink on Varland. The stats aren't bad, but the stats were more than just a little lucky., The Royals hit Varland pretty hard and he was lucky to escape the 4th and 5th innings. I would call this an ok start at best, and nothing that would make one think that he could be an effective starter every 5th day down the stretch. 

    Most importantly, we have to evaluate how he looked as compared to Festa and Matthews. Festa has looked better with a 2.2 ERA over his last 4 appearances and 18.2 innings. He also has a lot more strikeouts. He was also better than Varland in AAA. Matthews only has one appearance where he went 5 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 5 SOs, and no walks. So far Festa has looked better than Varland and has a big enough sample size to be meaningful. Matthews has also looked better but we need to see at least one more start before ranking. Right now, I would say Varland is number 3 of 3 headed either back to AAA as starter #6 or to the BP but we need to see one more Matthews start before we can be more confident in that. 

    UPdate - Just saw that the Twins have optioned Louie Varland back to St. Paul. No corresponding move yet announced. Looks like Festa and Matthews are the short term winners for the #4 and #5 rotation spots with Varland as #6 for the time being. Assume he will be back before 9/1 in the bullpen unless there's another injury. I think it's the right move. 

    Varland may have technically pitched a quality game, but he was very lucky for most of the day. He must have thrown at least a dozen meatballs right down the middle that the Royals didn't capitalize on. I've got to believe if it was the Yankees or Orioles, he would've given up six runs plus, easy. Our bullpen is a real liability now. Richards and Theilbar both are clearly DFA candidates, but Twins won't because we have no replacements. Either call someone up from minors or search the waiver wire. Rolling with these guys is going to cost us too many games. In a playoff chase, it's unsustainable:(

    On 8/14/2024 at 4:47 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I have seen some comments about a getaway lineup. I don't think the lineup was a matter of poor choices; the problem is we just didn't have anybody else to put in against a very good LH starter. Correa and Buxton are both out, so there go two RH hitters who hate left-handers well. The only other options would have been to play Kepler or Wallner instead of Larnach, and maybe Vasquez instead of Jeffers. I don't think it was really a getaway day lineup in the traditional sense where you play your reserves on Sunday afternoon. I think this is what we've got to go against LH pitching at the present time.

    I would have been tempted to sit Castro, and play Farmer at SS with Martin at 2B. Kepler could then have played RF with Margot in CF - that effectively trades Castro for Kepler. Castro is in a major slump and looks gassed. We could've tried Wallner but that would've meant sitting either Lewis or Larnach. Statistically, neither Larnach or Wallner can really hit left-handed pitchers so I think that's kind of a pick your poison situation. I agree with the idea that they should get a chance to hit left-handers to improve but when we do that you have to endure days like today when Larnach wasn't much value at the plate.

    We really need Correa and Buxton back to go against LH starting pitching PLUS we need Lewis to start hitting. Lewis is hitting .231/.311/.519 in his last 30 games, .250/.308/.417 in his last 7. Not horrible production but not middle of the order production either. Without him hitting like a true #3 or #4 hitter and then without Correa and Buxton, we are easy pickings for a LH starter. 

     

    Lewis fits in a lot better mixed amongst Miranda/Correa/Buxton …..guys (Managers) don’t want him to beat them and he’s getting pitched accordingly. Can’t hit 15 HR in 40 games and not have other Teams notice.

    9 hours ago, wabene said:

    The best case scenario for the Twins moving forward is during the next few weeks Festa and Zebby pitch well enough to possibly allow Varland to move to the pen. There is no guarantee he does well there, but he does provide a power pen arm. He could be joined there by Paddack who likely will not be able to provide a starter's length this year. Obviously the pen could use the reinforcements.

    Winder should be back in a week as well - 4 appearances with a 3.00 ERA & .888 WHIP & 10/1 K’s to walks ratio.

    7 hours ago, LambchoP said:

    Varland may have technically pitched a quality game, but he was very lucky for most of the day. He must have thrown at least a dozen meatballs right down the middle that the Royals didn't capitalize on. I've got to believe if it was the Yankees or Orioles, he would've given up six runs plus, easy. Our bullpen is a real liability now. Richards and Theilbar both are clearly DFA candidates, but Twins won't because we have no replacements. Either call someone up from minors or search the waiver wire. Rolling with these guys is going to cost us too many games. In a playoff chase, it's unsustainable:(

    Can’t really think there’s quality from the waiver wire in August……Winder - Henriquez - Blewett all seem to be prime candidates to displace them……Richards & Thielbar. Can’t imagine Caleb is going anywhere…….maybe a Varland/Paddack combination forces him off roster?

    23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Winder should be back in a week as well - 4 appearances with a 3.00 ERA & .888 WHIP & 10/1 K’s to walks ratio.

    I believe he has to spend 15 days at AAA, unless he’s recalled to fill for a player placed on the Injured List. 

    36 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Can’t really think there’s quality from the waiver wire in August……Winder - Henriquez - Blewett all seem to be prime candidates to displace them……Richards & Thielbar. Can’t imagine Caleb is going anywhere…….maybe a Varland/Paddack combination forces him off roster?

    Also, Blewitt DFAd. Although if he clears, it's possible he could be back.

    20 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

    I believe he has to spend 15 days at AAA, unless he’s recalled to fill for a player placed on the Injured List. 

    I thought it was 10 days - I really have no idea but I do know there’s a restriction on timing……that’s why I said a week. Sooner the better - he looked good!

    37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

    I thought it was 10 days - I really have no idea but I do know there’s a restriction on timing……that’s why I said a week. Sooner the better - he looked good!

    Ten days for position players, fifteen for pitchers. 

    17 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Winder should be back in a week as well - 4 appearances with a 3.00 ERA & .888 WHIP & 10/1 K’s to walks ratio.

    Agreed with slightly different timing. I think the Twins optioned him on 8/14 to be sure his 15 days were over before the 9/1 playoff roster deadline.  He may or may not be on that roster, but getting him up by 9/1 preserves the option.  Same for Varland going down on 8/15. It will be interesting to see what happens when and if Richards, Winder, Okert, Henriquez, and Varland are all healthy and there's 3 bullpen spots for the 5 of them. I suspect that an "injury" could resolve it so 4 (everyone except Henriquez) are either on the 26 man or the MLB IL on 9/1.     




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